Alex R Braithwaite
- Director, School of Government and Public Policy
- Professor
- Member of the Graduate Faculty
Contact
- (520) 621-8984
- Social Sciences, Rm. 314C
- Tucson, AZ 85721
- abraith@arizona.edu
Degrees
- Ph.D. Political Science
- Pennsylvania State University, State College, Pennsylvania
- M.A. Political Science
- Pennsylvania State University, State College, Pennsylvania
- B.A. War Studies and History
- King's College London, London
Work Experience
- University College London (2008 - 2013)
- Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado (2006 - 2007)
Awards
- Engagement Fellowship
- Bridging the Gap (American University), Spring 2019
- John E. Schwarz Award for Research, Teaching, Service, and Collegiality
- SGPP, Spring 2018
Interests
Teaching
International relations; causes of war, conflict, terrorism
Research
Violent and nonviolent conflict
Courses
2024-25 Courses
-
Honors Thesis
POL 498H (Fall 2024) -
Immigration+Refugee Plcy
LAS 388 (Fall 2024) -
Immigration+Refugee Plcy
POL 388 (Fall 2024)
2023-24 Courses
-
Dissertation
POL 920 (Spring 2024) -
Honors Thesis
POL 498H (Spring 2024) -
Independent Study
POL 399 (Spring 2024) -
Independent Study
POL 499 (Spring 2024) -
Dissertation
POL 920 (Fall 2023) -
Honors Thesis
POL 498H (Fall 2023) -
Immigration+Refugee Plcy
LAS 388 (Fall 2023) -
Immigration+Refugee Plcy
POL 388 (Fall 2023)
2022-23 Courses
-
Dissertation
POL 920 (Spring 2023) -
Engaging Beyond Academia
POL 697F (Spring 2023) -
Norms & Research
POL 697B (Spring 2023) -
Second Year Research Project
POL 697D (Spring 2023) -
Dissertation
POL 920 (Fall 2022) -
Intro International Relations
POL 202 (Fall 2022)
2021-22 Courses
-
How Terrorism Ends
POL 520A (Summer I 2022) -
Independent Study
POL 599 (Summer I 2022) -
Dissertation
POL 920 (Spring 2022) -
Honors Thesis
POL 498H (Spring 2022) -
How Terrorism Ends
POL 520A (Spring 2022) -
Independent Study
POL 499 (Spring 2022) -
Independent Study
POL 699 (Spring 2022) -
International Relations
POL 202 (Spring 2022) -
Thesis
POL 910 (Spring 2022) -
Dissertation
POL 920 (Fall 2021) -
Honors Independent Study
POL 499H (Fall 2021) -
Honors Thesis
POL 498H (Fall 2021) -
International Relations
POL 202 (Fall 2021)
2020-21 Courses
-
Honors Thesis
POL 498H (Summer I 2021) -
Honors Thesis
POL 498H (Spring 2021) -
How Terrorism Ends
POL 520A (Spring 2021) -
International Relations
POL 202 (Spring 2021) -
Honors Thesis
POL 498H (Fall 2020) -
Independent Study
POL 699 (Fall 2020) -
International Relations
POL 202 (Fall 2020)
2019-20 Courses
-
Dissertation
POL 920 (Spring 2020) -
Honors Thesis
POL 498H (Spring 2020) -
How Terrorism Ends
POL 520A (Spring 2020) -
Independent Study
POL 699 (Spring 2020) -
International Relations
POL 202 (Spring 2020) -
Dissertation
POL 920 (Fall 2019) -
Honors Thesis
POL 498H (Fall 2019) -
Independent Study
POL 399 (Fall 2019) -
International Relations
POL 202 (Fall 2019)
2018-19 Courses
-
Dissertation
POL 920 (Spring 2019) -
Honors Thesis
POL 498H (Spring 2019) -
How Terrorism Ends
POL 520A (Spring 2019) -
Norms & Job Market
POL 697C (Spring 2019) -
Professional Norms & Teaching
POL 697A (Spring 2019) -
Dissertation
POL 920 (Fall 2018) -
Honors Thesis
POL 498H (Fall 2018) -
International Relations
POL 202 (Fall 2018) -
Norms & Research
POL 697B (Fall 2018)
2017-18 Courses
-
Dissertation
POL 920 (Spring 2018) -
Honors Thesis
PPEL 498H (Spring 2018) -
How Terrorism Ends
POL 520A (Spring 2018) -
Norms & Job Market
POL 697C (Spring 2018) -
Professional Norms & Teaching
POL 697A (Spring 2018) -
Dissertation
POL 920 (Fall 2017) -
Independent Study
POL 599 (Fall 2017) -
Independent Study
POL 699 (Fall 2017) -
International Relations
POL 202 (Fall 2017) -
Norms & Research
POL 697B (Fall 2017)
2016-17 Courses
-
How Terrorism Ends
POL 520A (Spring 2017) -
Independent Study
POL 499 (Spring 2017) -
Norms & Job Market
POL 697C (Spring 2017) -
Professional Norms & Teaching
POL 697A (Spring 2017) -
Independent Study
POL 599 (Fall 2016) -
Intro IR
POL 660 (Fall 2016) -
Terrorism and Counterterrorism
PA 419 (Fall 2016) -
Terrorism and Counterterrorism
POL 419 (Fall 2016)
2015-16 Courses
-
How Terrorism Ends
POL 520A (Summer I 2016) -
Honors Thesis
POL 498H (Spring 2016) -
Independent Study
POL 399 (Spring 2016) -
International Relations
POL 596E (Spring 2016)
Scholarly Contributions
Chapters
- Braden, A., Cobb, M., & Braithwaite, A. R. (2017). Geography of Terrorism. In Oxford Bibliographies.
- Baudains, P., Belur, J., Braithwaite, A. R., Marchione, E., & Johnson, S. D. (2016). Rebellions. In Geo-mathematical Modelling: Models from Complexity Science. Chichester, UK: Wiley.
- Braithwaite, A. R., & Johnson, S. D. (2016). Space-time modeling of insurgency and counterinsurgency in Iraq. In Global Dynamics: Approaches from Complexity Science. Chichester, UK: Wiley.
- Braithwaite, A. R., Baudains, P., & Johnson, S. D. (2016). The London riots-2: a discrete choice model and an agent-based model. In Geo-mathematical Modelling: Models from Complexity Science. Chichester, UK: Wiley.
- Braithwaite, A. R., Davies, T., Johnson, S. D., & Marchione, E. (2016). Space-time analysis of point patterns in Crime and Security events. In Geo-mathematical Modelling: Models from Complexity Science. Chichester, UK: Wiley.
- Johnson, S. D., & Braithwaite, A. R. (2016). Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Terrorism and Insurgency. In The Handbook of the Criminology of Terrorism. New Jersey: Wiley.
- Braithwaite, A. R. (2015). The Logic of Fear in Terrorism and Counterterrorism’. In Counter-terrorism and Hostile Intent: Human Factors Theory and Application. Ashgate.
- Braithwaite, A. R., & Johnson, S. D. (2015). The Battle for Baghdad: Testing Hypotheses About Insurgency From Risk Heterogeneity, Repeat Victimization, and Denial Policing Approaches’. In Criminology Theory and Terrorism: New Applications and Approaches. New York: Routledge.
Journals/Publications
- Linebarger, C., & Braithwaite, A. (2022). Why Do Leaders Build Walls? Domestic Politics, Leader Survival, and The Fortification of Borders. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 002200272110666. doi:10.1177/00220027211066615More infoStates around the world are fortifying their international borders at unprecedented rates. While only seven states had fortified their borders with walls or fences as of the end of World War Two, this number has now grown to more than 75. Why do states build walls on their international borders? While states may build walls to ameliorate the consequences of cross-border economic inequalities and to defend against transnational security threats, we suggest that another compelling logic stems from domestic politics and leaders’ desire to remain in office. Building on assumptions furnished by diversionary theory, we argue that national political leaders at risk of losing office are incentivized to implement popular policies, such as border wall construction, hoping that doing so will prompt a domestic rally effect. To test this argument, we assemble a global dataset of leader-years and find that politically insecure leaders are more likely to be seen to start and continue border wall construction.
- Braithwaite, A., Ghosn, F., & Hameed, T. (2021). Under Pressure: When Refugees Feel Pressured to Leave Their Host Countries. Journal of Refugee Studies, 35(1), 595-614. doi:10.1093/jrs/feab102
- Ghosn, F., Braithwaite, A., Ghosn, F., Cox, J. M., & Braithwaite, A. (2021). Should I stay or should I go? The decision to flee or stay home during civil war. International Interactions, 47(2), 221-236. doi:10.1080/03050629.2021.1835890More infoThe literature on forced migration reveals a linkage between conflict-related violence and displacement. However, it often neglects the potential that variable forms of violence have differential i...
- Simon, M., Jandali, J., Ghosn, F., Frith, M. J., Chu, T. S., & Braithwaite, A. (2021). The Journey Home: Violence, Anchoring, and Refugee Decisions to Return. American Political Science Review, 1-17. doi:10.1017/s0003055421000344More infoWhile the UNHCR promotes voluntary repatriation as the preferred solution to refugee situations, there is little understanding of variation in refugees’ preferences regarding return. We develop a theoretical framework suggesting two mechanisms influencing refugees’ preferences. First, refugees’ lived experiences in their country of origin prior to displacement and in their new host country create a trade-off in feelings of being anchored to their origin or host country. Second, firsthand exposure to traumas of war provides some refugees with a sense of competency and self-efficacy, leading them to prefer to return home. We test these relationships with data from a survey among Syrian refugees hosted in Lebanon. We find refugees exposed to violence during the war have a sense of attachment to Syria and are most likely to prefer return. Refugees who have developed a detachment from Syria or an attachment to Lebanon are less likely to prefer return.
- Braithwaite, J. M., Braithwaite, J. M., & Braithwaite, A. (2020). Restricting Opposition in Elections and Terrorist Violence. Terrorism and Political Violence, 32(7), 1550-1572. doi:10.1080/09546553.2018.1495627More infoWe offer a novel argument to explain how the use of terrorist violence is affected by the restrictions that governments place on opposition participation in elections. Opposition actors often decid...
- Linebarger, C., & Braithwaite, A. (2020). Do Walls Work? The Effectiveness of Border Barriers in Containing the Cross-Border Spread of Violent Militancy. International Studies Quarterly, 64(3), 487-498. doi:10.1093/isq/sqaa035More infoAbstract Since the end of the Cold War, walls, fences, and fortifications have been constructed on interstate borders at a rapid rate. It remains unclear, however, whether these fortifications provide effective security. We explore whether border fortifications provide security against the international spread of violent militancy. Although barriers can reduce the likelihood that militant activity diffuses across international borders, their effectiveness is conditional upon the roughness of the terrain on which they are built and the level of infrastructure development in their proximity. Barriers require intensive manpower to monitor and patrol, and so conditions like rough terrain and poor infrastructure render security activity more difficult. However, rebels and other militants prefer to operate in such difficult areas, ultimately reducing the effectiveness of barriers in containing the international spread of violent militancy. Analyses on newly collated data on interstate border fortifications within a global sample of contiguous-state directed-dyad-years show that border fortifications are only effective in limiting the diffusion of militancy in contexts in which states can plausibly monitor and police their borders. This paper has significant implications for the academic literatures on national security and intrastate conflict, and it also speaks to the broader policy debate over border walls and fences.
- Maves Braithwaite, J., & Braithwaite, A. R. (2018). Restricting opposition in elections and terrorist violence. Terrorism & Political Violence.
- Young, J. K., Pascoe, H., Marineau, J. F., Findley, M. G., & Braithwaite, A. (2020). The local geography of transnational terrorism. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 37(3), 350-381. doi:10.1177/0738894218789356More infoWhy are some locations more attractive targets for transnational terrorism than others? Remarkably little is known about the local-level conditions and attributes that determine precisely where tra...
- Baudains, P., Belor, J., Braithwaite, A. R., Johnson, S., & Marchione, E. (2019). The exacerbating effect of police presence: A multivariate point process analysis of the Naxal conflict. Political Geography.
- Braithwaite, A. R., & Maves Braithwaite, J. (2018). Restricting opposition in elections and terrorist violence. Terrorism & Political Violence.
- Braithwaite, A. R., Salehyan, I., & Savun, B. (2019). Refugees, forced migration, and conflict: Introduction to the special issue. Journal of Peace Research.
- Frith, M., Simon, M., Davies, T., Braithwaite, A. R., & Johnson, S. (2019). Spatial interaction and security: A review and case study of the Syrian refugee crisis. Interdisciplinary Science Reviews.
- Ghosn, F., Braithwaite, A. R., & Chu, T. (2019). Violence, displacement, contact, and attitudes towards hosting refugees. Journal of Peace Research.
- Maves Braithwaite, J., & Braithwaite, A. R. (2017). Restricting Opposition in Elections and Terrorist Violence. Terrorism & Political Violence.
- Braithwaite, A., Salehyan, I., & Savun, B. (2018). Refugees, forced migration, and conflict: Introduction to the special issue. Journal of Peace Research, 56(1), 5-11. doi:10.1177/0022343318814128
- Marineau, J., Pascoe, H., Braithwaite, A. R., Findley, M., & Young, J. (2019). The local geography of transnational terrorism. Conflict Management & Peace Science.
- Maves Braithwaite, J., & Braithwaite, A. R. (2018). Expanding the Empirical Study of Actors and Tactics in Research on Nonviolent Resistance. Journal of Global Security Studies.
- Ruiz, L. B., & Braithwaite, A. (2018). Female combatants, forced recruitment, and civil conflict outcomes:. Research & Politics, 5(2), 205316801877055. doi:10.1177/2053168018770559More infoWomen participated as combatants in almost 40% of civil conflicts that occurred between 1979 and 2009. We offer a novel argument about the effect of female combatants upon the outcomes of the civil...
- Bezerra, P., Braithwaite, A., & Bezerra, P. (2017). Erratum to: Locating foreign aid commitments in response to political violence. Public Choice, 170(1), 177-180. doi:10.1007/s11127-016-0384-x
- Braithwaite, A. R., & Chu, T. S. (2018). Civil conflicts abroad, foreign fighters, and terrorism at home. Journal of Conflict Resolution.
- Braithwaite, A. R., & Kucik, J. (2017). Does the presence of foreign troops affect stability in the host country?. Foreign Policy Analysis.
- Braithwaite, A. R., & Ruiz, L. B. (2017). Female combatants and the outcome of civil conflicts. Research & Politics.
- Burton, L., Johnson, S. D., & Braithwaite, A. R. (2017). Potential uses of numerical simulation for the modelling of civil conflict. Peace Economics, Peace Science and Public Policy.
- Chu, T. S., & Braithwaite, A. (2017). Civil Conflicts Abroad, Foreign Fighters, and Terrorism at Home. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 62(8), 1636-1660. doi:10.1177/0022002717707304
- Chu, T. S., & Braithwaite, A. R. (2017). The impact of foreign fighters on civil conflict outcomes. Research & Politics, 4(3).
- Maves Braithwaite, J., & Braithwaite, A. R. (2017). Ballots, Bans, and Bombs: Terrorism, Spoiling, and the Quality of Elections. Terrorism & Political Violence.
- Bezerra, P., & Braithwaite, A. R. (2016). Locating Foreign Aid Commitments in Response to Political Violence. Public Choice, 169(3), 333-355.
- Braithwaite, A. R., Dasandi, N., & Hudson, D. (2016). Does Poverty Cause Conflict? Isolating the Causal Origins of the Conflict Trap. Conflict Management & Peace Science, 33(1), 45-66.
- Braithwaite, A. R. (2015). Transnational Terrorism as an Unintended Consequence of a Military Footprint. Security Studies.
- Braithwaite, A. R., & Johnson, S. D. (2015). The Battle for Baghdad: Testing Hypotheses About Insurgency From Risk Heterogeneity, Repeat Victimization, and Denial Policing Approaches.. Terrorism and Political Violence.
- Braithwaite, A. R., Braithwaite, J. M., & Kucik, J. (2015). The Conditioning Effect of Protest History on the Emulation of Nonviolent Conflict. Journal of Peace Research.
- Braithwaite, A. R., Chu, T. S., Curtis, J. G., & Halawi-Ghosn, F. Y. (2019). Violence and the Perception of Risk Associated with Hosting Refugees. Public Choice.
- Braithwaite, A. R., Braithwaite, J. M., & Kucik, J. (2014). The Costs of Domestic Political Unrest.. International Studies Quarterly.
- Braithwaite, A., & Johnson, S. D. (2014). The Battle for Baghdad: Testing Hypotheses About Insurgency From Risk Heterogeneity, Repeat Victimization, and Denial Policing Approaches. Terrorism and Political Violence, 27(1), 112-132. doi:10.1080/09546553.2014.972160
- Braithwaite, A., Dasandi, N., & Hudson, D. (2014). Does poverty cause conflict? Isolating the causal origins of the conflict trap. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 33(1), 45-66. doi:10.1177/0738894214559673
- Baudains, P., Braithwaite, A. R., & Johnson, S. (2013). Spatial Patterns in the 2011 London Riots. Policing: A Journal of Policy and Practice.
- Baudains, P., Braithwaite, A. R., & Johnson, S. D. (2013). Target Choice during Extreme Events: A Discrete Spatial Choice Model of the 2011 London Riots.. Criminology, 2(51), 251-285.
- Baudains, P., Johnson, S. D., & Braithwaite, A. R. (2013). Geographic Patterns of Diffusion in the 2011 London Riots.. Applied Geography, 211-219.
- Braithwaite, A. R. (2013). The Logic of Public Fear in Terrorism and Counterterrorism.. Journal of Police and Criminal Psychology.
- Braithwaite, J. M., & Braithwaite, A. R. (2013). Autocratic Regimes and Civil Conflict Contagion. Journal of Politics, 2(75), 479-490.
- Foster, D. M., Braithwaite, A. R., & Sobek, D. (2013). There Can Be No Compromise: Institutional Inclusiveness, Fractionalization, and Domestic Terrorism.. British Journal of Political Science, 3(43), 541-557.
- Gibler, D. M., & Braithwaite, A. R. (2013). Dangerous Neighbours, Regional Territorial Conflict, and the Democratic Peace.. British Journal of Political Science, 4(43), 877-887.
- Johnson, S. D., Braithwaite, A., & Baudains, P. (2013). TARGET CHOICE DURING EXTREME EVENTS: A DISCRETE SPATIAL CHOICE MODEL OF THE 2011 LONDON RIOTS. Criminology, 51(2), 251-285. doi:10.1111/1745-9125.12004More infoRiots are extreme events, and much of the early research on rioting suggested that the decision making of rioters was far from rational and could only be understood from the perspective of a collective mind. In the current study, we derive and test a set of expectations regarding rioter spatial decision making developed from theories originally intended to explain patterns of urban crime when law and order prevail—crime pattern and social disorganization theory—and consider theories of collective behavior and contagion. To do this, we use data for all riot-related incidents that occurred in London in August 2011 that were detected by the police. Unlike most studies of victimization, we use a random utility model to examine simultaneously how the features of the destinations selected by rioters, the origins of their journeys, and the characteristics of the offenders influence offender spatial decision making. The results demonstrate that rioter target choices were far from random and provide support for all three types of theory, but for crime pattern theory in particular. For example, rioters were more likely to engage in the disorder close to their home location and to select areas that contained routine activity nodes and transport hubs, and they were less likely to cross the Thames River. In terms of contagion, rioters were found to be more likely to target areas that had experienced rioting in the previous 24 hours. From a policy perspective, the findings provide insight into the types of areas that may be most vulnerable during riots and why this is the case, and when particular areas are likely to be at an elevated risk of this type of disorder.
- Joyce, K., & Braithwaite, A. R. (2013). Geographic Proximity and Third Party Joiners in Militarized Interstate Disputes. Journal of Peace Research.
- Johnson, S. D., & Braithwaite, A. (2012). Space–Time Modeling of Insurgency and Counterinsurgency in Iraq. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 28(1), 31-48. doi:10.1007/s10940-011-9152-8More infoThe US and its Coalition partners concluded combat operations in Iraq in August 2010. Rather surprisingly, little empirical evidence exists as to the factors that contributed to the ebb and flow in levels of violence and the emergence and disappearance of hot spots of hostilities during the campaign. Building upon a tradition of criminology scholarship, recent work demonstrates that Improvised Explosive Device (IED) attacks are clustered in space and time and that these trends decay in a manner similar to that observed in the spread of disease and crime. The current study extends this work by addressing a key potential correlate of these observed patterns across Iraq—namely, the timing and location of a variety of Coalition counterinsurgency (COIN) operations. This is achieved by assessing the co-evolving space–time distributions of insurgency and counterinsurgency in the first 6 months of 2005. To do so, we employ a novel analytic technique that helps us to assess the sequential relationship between these two event types. Our analyses suggest that the number of COIN operations that follow insurgent IED attacks (moderately) exceeds expectation (assuming that events are independent) for localities in the vicinity of an attack. This pattern is more consistent than is observed for the relationship in the opposite direction. The findings also suggest that less discriminatory COIN operations are associated with an elevated occurrence of subsequent insurgency in the vicinity of COIN operations in the medium to long term, whilst for more discriminatory and capacity-reducing COIN operations the reverse appears to be true.
- Braithwaite, A. (2011). Understanding Life in the Borderlands: Boundaries in Depth and Motion . Edited by I. William Zartman. Athens: The University of Georgia Press, 2010. 256p. $69.95 cloth, $24.95 paper.. Perspectives on Politics, 9(01), 234-235. doi:10.1017/s1537592710004238
- Braithwaite, A. (2010). MIDLOC: Introducing the Militarized Interstate Dispute Location dataset:. Journal of Peace Research, 47(1), 91-98. doi:10.1177/0022343309350008More infoThe Militarized Interstate Dispute Location (MIDLOC) dataset addresses a significant lacuna in the empirical literature on the geography of interstate conflict: the dearth of location-level data. T...
- Braithwaite, A. (2010). Resisting infection: How state capacity conditions conflict contagion. Journal of Peace Research, 47(3), 311-319. doi:10.1177/0022343310362164More infoThe collapse of Mobutu’s Zaire and the arrival of father and son Kabila regimes in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (hereafter, the DRC) were hastened by the dramatic and tumultuous spread of violence from neighboring Rwanda. Mobutu’s state’s inability to manage the influx of Hutu refugees (with Interahamwe militia members interspersed) into the Kivu province of eastern Zaire from Rwanda’s bloody genocide of 1994 or to compensate for the ratcheting up of their cross-border skirmishes with the Banyamulenge (Zairean Tutsi) population in 1996, exacerbated extant tensions and has since resulted in more than a dozen years of civil war. This example prompts us to ask: are countries with higher levels of state capacity better able to resist the spread of violence from neighboring territories into their own? The author argues that when falsely divided notions of spatial heterogeneity and dependence are interacted, contagion from neighboring conflicts becomes a risk of diminishing value for increasingly capabl...
- Sobek, D. A., Foster, D. M., & Braithwaite, A. (2010). Ballots, Bargains, and Bombs: Terrorist Targeting of Spoiler Opportunities. International Interactions, 36(3), 294-305. doi:10.1080/03050629.2010.502453More infoBenjamin Netanyahu's come-from-behind victory over Shimon Peres in the Israeli national elections of May 1996, following an apparent intensification of Palestinian terrorism over the course of that spring, reminded observers of the political ramifications of terrorism. Since May 1996 was also the month in which Israel reentered Final Status negotiations with a Palestinian delegation in Taba, Egypt, the timing of this surge in violence encourages us to ask if terrorists regularly conceive of elections and rounds of negotiations as “spoiler opportunities,” or opportune times to undermine peaceful political processes. We address this question in the context of Israel's long‐running experience with elections, negotiations, and terrorism. We hypothesize that attacks resulting in fatalities are likely to increase in periods immediately surrounding Israeli general elections and key rounds of negotiations affecting the fate of the Palestinian population. Negative binomial event count analyses of the period 1970–2...
- Braithwaite, A. (2009). Beyond the Hazards of Occupation. International Studies Review, 11(2), 379-380. doi:10.1111/j.1468-2486.2009.00859.xMore infoOccupational Hazards: Success and Failure in Military Occupation. By David M. Edelstein. New York: Cornell University Press, 2008. 235 pp., $35.00 hardcover (ISBN-13: 978-0-801-44615-3). Military occupation is a topic that typifies the all-too-common disjuncture between academic scholarship and policymaking, in which the former offers little systematic examination of what the latter selects to be a central tenet of modern statecraft. It is refreshing, therefore, when scholars pay attention to real world examples of foreign policymaking when designing social science. It is even more refreshing when their designs neatly combine theoretical innovation and solid empirics. In these respects, David Edelstein's Occupational Hazards is very refreshing indeed. Theorists of international relations have tended to pay closest attention to scenarios in which states challenge and fight one another with a view to territorial conquest. As a result, little attention has been paid to the set of phenomena in which the victor chooses to reform and rebuild the vanquished instead. Of these understudied cases, Edelstein asks a very simple question: why do some military occupations succeed whereas others fail? Edelstein identifies a rather strict definition of success in which the post-occupation …
- Braithwaite, A. (2007). Enders, Walter, and Todd Sandler. The Political Economy of Terrorism. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2006.. The Journal of Conflict Studies, 27(1).
- Li, Q., & Braithwaite, A. (2007). Transnational Terrorism Hot Spots: Identification and Impact Evaluation:. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 24(4), 281-296. doi:10.1080/07388940701643623More infoTo combat transnational terrorism, it is important to understand its geography. The extant literature on the geography of terrorism, however, is small and focuses on the distribution and diffusion of terrorism among aggregate regions such as Europe and the Middle East. In this analysis, we study transnational terrorism hot spots at the country level. We employ local spatial statistics to identify terrorism hot spot neighborhoods and countries that are located within. We also assess empirically the impact of these hot spots on future patterns of terrorist incidents. We find that countries with significant experiences with terrorism are often located within these hot spots, but that not all countries within the hot spots have experienced large numbers of terrorist incidents. We also find in a pooled time-series analysis of 112 countries from 1975 to 1997 that when a country is located within a hot spot neighborhood, a large increase in the number of terrorist attacks is likely to occur in the next period. T...
- Braithwaite, A. (2006). The Geographic Spread of Militarized Disputes. Journal of Peace Research, 43(5), 507-522. doi:10.1177/0022343306066627More infoA thriving literature investigates the claim that geographic processes cause military conflict to cluster and diffuse. With the recent update of the Militarized Interstate Dispute (MID) data and the collection of geographic locations to accompany these data, it is now possible to offer a location-based examination of the geographic spread of conflict. Consideration of the literature that identifies a role for physical geography in conflict processes leads to the derivation of hypotheses in which territory and resources are expected to provide incentives for states to seek to increase territorial acquisitions, while impassable terrain is expected to act as a barrier to such spread. These hypotheses are tested using ordinary least squares (OLS) estimation - regressing the spread of individual MIDs in the years 1993-2001 upon a range of location- and dispute-specific variables. These regressions demonstrate that the spread of individual disputes is a function of the issue over which they are fought, the presence of vital resources in the host country, the prevailing terrain of that country, and the relevant conflict history of the participants. It is argued that knowledge of the precipitants of the spread of individual conflicts is of great benefit to policymakers seeking to mitigate the detrimental impact of conflict upon the societies in which it occurs, as well as to those deploying peacekeeping troops to conflict zones.
- Braithwaite, A. (2005). Location, Location, Location…Identifying Hot spots of International Conflict. International Interactions, 31(3), 251-273. doi:10.1080/03050620500294234More infoThis article introduces new variables summarizing the geographic location of Militarized Interstate Disputes (MIDs) and “hot spots” of these locations for the years 1816 to 2001. Three exercises are detailed: (1) the specification and collection of geographic location data for each MID onset; (2) the generation of static map representations of these data; and (3) the application of spatial cluster analysis techniques to examine their geographic distribution. Initially, I address the protocol followed while carrying out the first two of these steps - offering thoughts on the coding procedures and examples of the mapped representations of the data. I then detail the techniques used to conduct spatial cluster analysis. The results of these analyses confirm the apparent evidence of the mapped presentations of the data, offering evidence in support of the a priori expectation that dispute onsets are clustered in space and time; revealing apparent “hot spots” of conflict across most regions of the world. I conclude with a discussion of potential applications of this new MID location dataset.
- Sobek, D., & Braithwaite, A. (2005). Victim of Success: American Dominance and Terrorism. Conflict Management and Peace Science, 22(2), 135-148. doi:10.1080/07388940590948565More infoWhile terrorist attacks against American interests represent an important topic, few studies use international relations theory and a rigorous statistical methodology to examine their occurrence. I...
Presentations
- Braithwaite, A. R., & Braithwaite, J. M. (2015, Spring). Ballots, Bans, and Bombs: Terrorism, Spoiling, and the Quality of Elections. International Studies Association 2013; Kobe Sakura Meeting 2015.
- Halawi-Ghosn, F. Y., & Braithwaite, A. R. (2019, September). Refugee Flows and Instability. Minerva Conference. Washington DC.
- Braithwaite, A. R., & Halawi-Ghosn, F. Y. (2018, June). Refugee Flows and Instability: Preliminary Data From Syrian refugees in Lebanon. Workshop at German Development Institute (DIE). Bonn, Germany.
- Braithwaite, A. R., & Halawi-Ghosn, F. Y. (2018, May). Border fortifications and migrant deaths on the Mediterranean Sea. Workshop at Perry World House. University of Pennsylvania.
- Braithwaite, A. R., & Halawi-Ghosn, F. Y. (2018, May). Border fortifications and migrant deaths on the Mediterranean Sea. Workshop. University of Pennsylvania.
- Braithwaite, A. R., & Halawi-Ghosn, F. Y. (2018, September). Refugee Flows and Instability. Minerva Conference. Washington DC.
- Halawi-Ghosn, F. Y., Curtis, J. G., Chu, T. S., & Braithwaite, A. R. (2018, May). Violence and the Perception of Risk Associated with Hosting Refugees. Workshop. Texas.
- Braithwaite, A. R., & Halawi-Ghosn, F. Y. (2017, July). Hosting Syrian Refugees: A Survey from Lebanon. Workshop: Political, Economic, Social, and Legal Aspects of Hosting Migrants and Refugees. Turkey: Bahçeşehir University & University of Essex Funded by British Council Newton Fund.
- Braithwaite, A. R., Braithwaite, A. R., Halawi-Ghosn, F. Y., & Halawi-Ghosn, F. Y. (2017, July). Hosting Syrian Refugees: A Survey from Lebanon. Workshop: Political, Economic, Social, and Legal Aspects of Hosting Migrants and Refugees. Turkey: Bahçeşehir University & University of Essex Funded by British Council Newton Fund.
Others
- Braithwaite, A. R., Braithwaite, A. R., Halawi-Ghosn, F. Y., & Halawi-Ghosn, F. Y. (2017, October). Could Contact Stem the Rising Tide of Negative Attitudes Towards Hosting Syrian Refugees in Lebanon. Oxford Monitor of Forced Migration: Field Monitor.
- Braithwaite, A. R., & Halawi-Ghosn, F. Y. (2017, October). Could Contact Stem the Rising Tide of Negative Attitudes Towards Hosting Syrian Refugees in Lebanon. Oxford Monitor of Forced Migration: Field Monitor.