Christopher L Castro

Interests

Research

Regional atmospheric modeling and dynamical downscaling,Climate variability and change,Numerical weather prediction,North American monsoon,Synoptic and mesoscale meteorology.Hydrometeorology,Organized convection and severe weather,Land-atmosphere interactions

Teaching

Objective Analysis in Atmospheric and Related Sciences.Weather Analysis and Forecasting,Mesoscale Meteorological Modeling

Courses

Scholarly Contributions

Books

• Castro, C. L., Centeno, R., Adams, D. K., Amador, J., Cavazos, T., López, R., Lizárraga, C., Castro, V., & López, E. (2016). Fenómenos Clímaticos y Su Relevancia Para El Cambio Climático Regional Futuro, Capítulo 12 de Reporte Mexicano de Cambio Climático: Bases Científicas, Modelos, y Modelación, [English Tranlation: Climate phenonmena y their relevance for future regional climate change, Chapter 12 of Mexican Climate Change Report: Scientific bases, models, and modeling]. National Autonomous University of Mexico, Program in Climate Change Research. Mexico City, D.F., Mexico..

Chapters

• Cayan, D. M., Tyree, M., Castro, C. L., Gurshonov, A., Barsugli, J., Ray, A., Anderson, M., Rajagopalan, B., Rangwala, I., & Duffy, P. (2013). Future Climate: Projected Average, Chapter 6. In Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Change Assessment.
• Gurshonov, A., Overpeck, J., Guirguis, K., Cayan, D., Dettinger, M., Castro, C. L., Schwartz, R. E., Anderson, M., Ray, A., Barsugli, J., Cavazos, T., & Alexander, M. (2013). Future Climate: Projected Extremes, Chapter 7. In Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Change Assessment.

Journals/Publications

• Holmes, M. J., Mahjour, B., Castro, C. P., Farnum, G. A., Diehl, A. G., & Boyle, A. P. (2023). LRphase: an efficient method for assigning haplotype identity to long reads. bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology.
  More info

  Understanding the functional effects of sequence variation is among the primary goals of contemporary genomics. Individual human genomes contain millions of variants which are thought to contribute to phenotypic variability and differential disease risks at the population level. However, because variants rarely act in isolation, we cannot accurately predict functional effects without first considering the potential effects of other interacting variants on the same chromosome. This information can be obtained by phasing the read data from sequencing experiments. However, no standalone tools are available to simply phase reads based on known haplotypes. Here we present LRphase: a user-friendly utility for simple phasing of long sequencing reads.
• Castro, C., Kristjanpoller, W., & Olson, J. E. (2022). Long-run economic and social determinants of the ecological footprint of latin america: a panel causality approach. Environmental science and pollution research international, 29(59), 88908-88924.
  More info

  As a region rich in natural resources and biodiversity, Latin America is particularly vulnerable to environmental crises. The ecological footprint (EF) of Latin America and the variables that affect it in the long run are examined through a panel data approach and causality, using a sample of 12 countries in the region over the period 1990 to 2014. The study uses human development instead of human capital, because the former considers health and standard of living in addition to schooling. Applying a recent methodology that contains tests and estimators for various specification problems including cross-sectional dependence, the study finds that economic growth and imports damage environmental quality while human development, renewable energy consumption and exports tend to mitigate the ecological footprint. Human development and imports have a unidirectional effect on the EF while there is feedback between economic growth, renewable energy consumption and the EF. Urbanization and financial development do not play a significant role, and the Environmental Kuznets Curve theory is not validated for the region. Policies are proposed for EF management to ensure sustainable development in Latin America.
• Sun, X., Ding, Q., Wang, S. S., Topál, D., Li, Q., Castro, C., Teng, H., Luo, R., & Ding, Y. (2022). Enhanced jet stream waviness induced by suppressed tropical Pacific convection during boreal summer. Nature communications, 13(1), 1288.
  More info

  Consensus on the cause of recent midlatitude circulation changes toward a wavier manner in the Northern Hemisphere has not been reached, albeit a number of studies collectively suggest that this phenomenon is driven by global warming and associated Arctic amplification. Here, through a fingerprint analysis of various global simulations and a tropical heating-imposed experiment, we suggest that the suppression of tropical convection along the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone induced by sea surface temperature (SST) cooling trends over the tropical Eastern Pacific contributed to the increased summertime midlatitude waviness in the past 40 years through the generation of a Rossby-wave-train propagating within the jet waveguide and the reduced north-south temperature gradient. This perspective indicates less of an influence from the Arctic amplification on the observed mid-latitude wave amplification than what was previously estimated. This study also emphasizes the need to better predict the tropical Pacific SST variability in order to project the summer jet waviness and consequent weather extremes.
• Barron-Gafford, G. A., Castro, C. L., Meixner, T., & Niu, G. (2021). An improved practical approach for estimating catchment‐scale response functions through wavelet analysis. Hydrological Processes.
• Castro, C. L., Lahmers, T. M., Hazenberg, P., Gupta, H. V., Gochis, D., Dugger, A., Yates, D., Read, L., Karsten, L., & Wang, Y. (2021). Evaluation of NOAA National Water Model Parameter Calibration in Semiarid Environments. Journal of Hydrometeorlogy, 2939-2969.
• Fu, R., Castro, C. L., Zhou, T., Zhang, L., Yun, K., Yang, S., Wang, B., Turner, A. G., Sui, C., Seth, A., Roxy, M. K., Pascale, S., Moise, A., Liu, J., Li, J., Lee, J., Krishnan, R., Kitoh, A., Hendon, H. H., , Ha, K., et al. (2021). Monsoons Climate Change Assessment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 102(1), E1-E19. doi:10.1175/bams-d-19-0335.1
  More info

  Capsule SummaryThis paper reviews the current knowledge on detection, attribution and projection of global and regional monsoons (South Asian, East Asian, Australian, South American, North American...
• Lahmers, T., Hazenberg, P., Gupta, H. V., Castro, C. L., Gochis, D., Dugger, A., Yates, D., Read, L., Karsten, L., & Wang, Y. H. (2021). Evaluation of NOAA National Water Model Parameter Calibration in Semi-Arid Environments Prone to Channel Infiltration. Journal of Hydrometeorology. doi:doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-20-0198.1
  More info

  Lahmers TM, P Hazenberg, H Gupta, C Castro, D Gochis, A Dugger, D Yates, L Read, L Karsten and YH Wang (2021), Evaluation of NOAA National Water Model Parameter Calibration in Semi-Arid Environments Prone to Channel Infiltration, Journal of Hydrometeorology, doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-20-0198.1
• McDonald, T. L., Zhou, W., Castro, C. P., Mumm, C., Switzenberg, J. A., Mills, R. E., & Boyle, A. P. (2021). Cas9 targeted enrichment of mobile elements using nanopore sequencing. Nature communications, 12(1), 3586.
  More info

  Mobile element insertions (MEIs) are repetitive genomic sequences that contribute to genetic variation and can lead to genetic disorders. Targeted and whole-genome approaches using short-read sequencing have been developed to identify reference and non-reference MEIs; however, the read length hampers detection of these elements in complex genomic regions. Here, we pair Cas9-targeted nanopore sequencing with computational methodologies to capture active MEIs in human genomes. We demonstrate parallel enrichment for distinct classes of MEIs, averaging 44% of reads on-targeted signals and exhibiting a 13.4-54x enrichment over whole-genome approaches. We show an individual flow cell can recover most MEIs (97% L1Hs, 93% AluYb, 51% AluYa, 99% SVA_F, and 65% SVA_E). We identify seventeen non-reference MEIs in GM12878 overlooked by modern, long-read analysis pipelines, primarily in repetitive genomic regions. This work introduces the utility of nanopore sequencing for MEI enrichment and lays the foundation for rapid discovery of elusive, repetitive genetic elements.
• Risanto, C. B., Castro, C. L., Arellano, A. F., Moker, J. M., & Adams, D. K. (2021). The impact of assimilating GPS precipitable water vapor in convective-permitting WRF-ARW on North American monsoon precipitation forecasts over northwest Mexico. Monthly Weather Review.
• Stanley, M., Meixner, T., Ferre, P. A., Eastoe, C. J., Castro, C. L., Barron-gafford, G. A., Abramson, N., Wright, W. E., Stanley, M., Papuga, S. A., Niu, G. Y., Mitra, B., Minor, R. L., Meixner, T., Knowles, J. F., Hamann, L., Ferre, P. A., Eastoe, C. J., Dwivedi, R., , Chorover, J., et al. (2021). An improved practical approach for estimating catchment‐scale response functions through wavelet analysis. Hydrological Processes, 35(3). doi:10.1002/hyp.14082
• Bunn, P. T., Bunn, P. T., Holmgren, W. F., Holmgren, W. F., Leuthold, M. S., Leuthold, M. S., Castro, C. L., & Castro, C. L. (2020). Using GEOS-5 forecast products to represent aerosol optical depth in operational day-ahead solar irradiance forecasts for the southwest United States. Journal of Renewable and Sustainable Energy.
• Castro, C. L., Lahmers, T. M., & Hazenberg, P. (2020). Effects of Lateral Flow on the Convective Environment in Coupled Hydrometeorological Modeling System in a Semiarid Environment. Journal of Hydrometeorology.
• Meixner, T., Barron-gafford, G. A., Mcintosh, J. C., Eastoe, C. J., Castro, C. L., Wright, W. E., Stanley, M., Niu, G. Y., Mitra, B., Minor, R. L., Meixner, T., Mcintosh, J. C., Knowles, J. F., Ferre, P. A., Eastoe, C. J., Dwivedi, R., Chorover, J., Castro, C. L., Barron-gafford, G. A., & Abramson, N. (2020). Ubiquitous Fractal Scaling and Filtering Behavior of Hydrologic Fluxes and Storages from A Mountain Headwater Catchment. Water, 12(2), 613. doi:10.3390/w12020613
  More info

  We used the weighted wavelet method to perform spectral analysis of observed long-term precipitation, streamflow, actual evapotranspiration, and soil water storage at a sub-humid mountain catchment near Tucson, Arizona, USA. Fractal scaling in precipitation and the daily change in soil water storage occurred up to a period of 14 days and corresponded to the typical duration of relatively wet and dry intervals. In contrast, fractal scaling could be observed up to a period of 0.5 years in streamflow and actual evapotranspiration. By considering long-term observations of hydrologic fluxes and storages, we show that, in contrast to previous findings, the phase relationships between water balance components changed with component period and were not perfectly in or out of phase at all periods. Self-averaging behavior was apparent, but the temporal scales over which this behavior was applicable differed among the various water balance components. Conservative tracer analysis showed that this catchment acted as a fractal filter by transforming white noise in the precipitation input signal to a 1/f flicker in the streamflow output signal by means of both spatial and temporal subsurface advection and dispersion processes and soil wetting properties. This study provides an improved understanding of hydrological filtering behavior in mountain critical zones that are critical sources of water and ecosystem services throughout the world.
• Meixner, T., Mcintosh, J. C., Eastoe, C. J., Castro, C. L., Barron-gafford, G. A., Wright, W. E., Stanley, M., Papuga, S. A., Niu, G. Y., Mitra, B., Minor, R. L., Meixner, T., Mcintosh, J. C., Knowles, J. F., Hu, J., Hamann, L., Ferre, P. A., Eastoe, C. J., Dwivedi, R., , Chorover, J., et al. (2020). Vegetation source water identification using isotopic and hydrometric observations from a subhumid mountain catchment. Ecohydrology, 13(1). doi:10.1002/eco.2167
• Ochoa-Moya, C. A., Cala-Pérez, Y. A., Díaz-Esteban, Y., Castro, C. L., Ordoñez-Peréz, P., & Quintanar, A. I. (2020). Climatological Large-Scale Circulation Patterns over the Middle Americas Region. Atmosphere.
• Prein, A. F., Rasmussen, R., Castro, C. L., Dai, A., & Minder, J. (2020). Special issue: Advances in convective-permitting climate modeling. Climate Dynamics.
• Roy, T., He, X., Lin, P., Beck, H. E., Castro, C. L., & Wood, E. F. (2020). Global evaluation of seasonal precipitation and temperature forecasts from NMME. Journal of Hydrometeorology.
• Zamora, R., Wang, Y., Karsten, L., Read, L., Yates, D., Dugger, A., Gochis, D., Gupta, H. V., Hazenberg, P., Lahmers, T. M., & Castro, C. L. (2020). Evaluation of NOAA National Water Model Parameter Calibration in Semi-Arid Environments Prone to Channel Infiltration. Journal of Hydrometeorology.
• Castro, C. L., Minjarez-Sosa, C. M., Adams, D. K., & Waissman, J. (2019). Algorithm for Improved QPE over Complex Terrain Using Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Occurrences. Atmosphere. doi:10.3390/atmos10020085
• Castro, C. L., Pascale, S., Carvalho, L. M., Adams, D. K., & Cavalcanti, I. (2019). Current and Future Variations of the Monsoons of the Americas in a Warming Climate. Curr. Clim. Change Rep.. doi:10.1007/s40641-019-00135-w
• Castro, C. L., Shamir, E., Halper, E., Modrick, T., Geogakakos, K. P., & Chang, H. I. (2019). Statistical and dynamical downscaling impact on projected hydrologic assessment in an arid environment: A case study from Bill Williams River Basin and Alamo Lake, Arizona.. Journal Hydrology X. doi:10.1016/j.hydroa.2019.100019
• Hazenberg, P., Goodrich, D., Dugger, A., Yates, D., Gochis, D., Castro, C. L., Gupta, H. V., & Lahmers, T. (2019). Enhancing the Structure of the WRF-Hydro Hydrologic Model for Semi-arid Environments. Journal of Hydrometeorology. doi:10.1175/JHM-D-18- 0064.s1
  More info

  Lahmers T, HV Gupta, CL Castro, DJ Gochis, D Yates, A Dugger, D Goodrich and P Hazenberg (2019), Enhancing the Structure of the WRF-Hydro Hydrologic Model for Semi-arid Environments, Journal of Hydrometeorology, https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-18- 0064.s1.
• Pal, S., Chang, H. I., Castro, C. L., & Dominguez, F. (2019). Credibility of Convective-Permitting Modeling to Improve Seasonal Precipitation Forecasting in the Southwestern United States. Front. Earth Sci.. doi:10.3389/feart.2019.00011
• Risanto, C. B., Castro, C. L., Moker, Jr., J. M., Arellano, A. F., Adams, D. K., Fierro, L. M., & Minjarez-Sosa, C. M. (2019). Evaluating Forecast Skills of Moisture from Convective-Permitting WRF-ARW Model during 2017 North American Monsoon Season. Atmosphere. doi:10.3390/atmos10110694
• Rodriguez-Vera, G., Romero-Centeno, R., Castro, C. L., & Castro, V. M. (2019). Coupled Interannual Variability of Wind and Sea Surface Temperature in the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico. Journal of Climate.
• Amador, J., Ambrizzi, T., Cavazos, T., Castro, C. L., Cerezo-Mota, R., Fuentes-Franco, R., Giorgi, F., Guiliani, G., Lee, H., Méndez-Pérez, M., & Rivera, E. (2018). Putting into action the REGCM4.6 regional climate model for climate change, variability, and modeling over Central America.. Atmósfera.
• Carrillo, C. M., Castro, C. L., Garfin, G. M., Chang, H. I., Bukovsky, M. S., & Mearns, L. O. (2018). Pacific sea surface temperature related influences on North American monsoon precipitation within North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program models. International Journal of Climatology.
• Carrillo, C. M., Castro, C. L., Garfin, G. M., Chang, H., & Bukovsky, M. S. (2018). Pacific SST-related teleconnective influences on North American monsoon precipitation within North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) models. International Journal of Climatology.
  More info

  doi.org/10.1002/joc.5561
• Cassell, W. W., Chang, H. I., Nguyen, T. M., Castro, C. L., & Luong, T. M. (2018). Improvement in the Modeled Representation of North American Monsoon Precipitation Using a Modified Kain–Fritsch Convective Parameterization Scheme. Atmosphere.
• Dominguez, F., Castro, C. L., Chang, H. I., & Pal, S. (2018). Improvement in Seasonal Precipitation Forecasting in the southwestern US using Convective-Permitting Modeling. Frontiers.
• Luong, T. M., Castro, C. L., Nguyen, T. M., Cassell, W. W., & Chang, H. (2018). Improvement in the Modeled Representation of North American Monsoon Precipitation Using a Modified Kain-Fritsch Convective Parameterization Scheme. Atmosphere. doi:10.3390/atmos9010031
• Martinez, J. A., Arias, P. A., Castro, C. L., Chang, H. I., & Ochoa-Moya, C. A. (2018). Sea surface temperature-related response of precipitation in northern South America according to a WRF multi-decadal simulation. International Journal of Climatology. doi:10.1002/joc.5940
• Martinez, J. A., Arias, P., Castro, C. L., Chang, H., & Ochoa-Moya, C. A. (2018). Sea surface temperature‐related response of precipitation in northern South America according to a WRF multi‐decadal simulation. International Journal of Climatology.
• Moker, J., Castro, C. L., Arellano, A., Serra, Y., & Adams, D. K. (2018). Convective-permitting hindcast simulations during The North American Monsoon GPS Transect Experiment 2013: Establishing Baseline Model Performance Without Data Assimilation. Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology.
• Wang, B., Biasutti, M., Byrne, M. P., Castro, C. L., Chang, C., Cook, K., Fu, R., Grimm, A. M., Ha, K., Hendon, H., Kitoh, A., Krishnan, R., Lee, J., Li, J., Liu, J., Moise, A., Pascale, S., Roxy, M. K., Seth, A., , Sui, C., et al. (2021). Monsoons Climate Change Assessment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
• Carrillo, C., Castro, C. L., Chang, H., & Luong, T. (2017). Multi-year climate variability in the Southwestern United States within a context of a dynamically downscaled twentieth century reanalysis. Clim. Dyn.. doi:10.1007/s00382-017-3569-1
• Luong, T. M., Castro, C. L., Chang, H., Lahmers, T., Adams, D. K., & Ochoa-Moya, C. A. (2017). The More Extreme Nature of North American Monsoon Precipitation in the Southwestern United States as Revealed by a Historical Climatology of Simulated Severe Weather Events. JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY, 56(9), 2509-2529.
• Manuel, M. C., Castro, C. L., Cummins, K. L., Waissmann, J., & Adams, D. K. (2017). An Improved QPE over Complex Terrain Employing Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Occurrences. JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY, 56(9), 2489-2507.
• Niraula, R. R., Meixner, T., Ajami, H., Rodell, M., Gochis, D., & Castro, C. L. (2017). Comparing potential recharge estimates from three Land Surface Models across the western US. J. Hydrology. doi:10.1016/j.hydrol.2016.12.028
• Niraula, R., Meixner, T., Dominguez, F., Bhattarai, N., Rodell, M., Ajami, H., Gochis, D., & Castro, C. (2017). How Might Recharge Change Under Projected Climate Change in the Western US?. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 44(20), 10407-10418.
• Switanek, M. B., Troch, P. A., Castro, C. L., Leuprecht, A., Chang, H., Mukherjee, R., & Demaria, E. (2017). Scaled distribution mapping: a bias correction method that preserves raw climate model projected changes. HYDROLOGY AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES, 21(6), 2649-2666.
• Armenteras, D., Gibbes, C., Vivacqua, C. A., Espinosa, J. S., Duleba, W., Goncalves, F., & Castro, C. L. (2016). Interactions between Climate, Land Use, and Vegetation Fire Occurrences in El Salvador. Atmosphere, 7(2). doi:10.3390/atmos70026
• Castro, C. L., Chang, H., Ding, Q., Arritt, R., & Salathé, E. (2016). Toward a new paradigm of convective-permitting modeling in subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting of warm season precipitation extremes. US CLIVAR Variations Newsletter, 14(4), 1-7.
• Castro, C. L., Woodhouse, C. A., Woodhouse, C. A., Griffin, D., Castro, C. L., & Carrillo, C. M. (2016). Low-frequency variability of precipitation in the North American monsoon region as diagnosed through earlywood and latewood tree-ring chronologies in the southwestern US. International Journal of Climatology, 36(5), 2254-2272. doi:10.1002/joc.4493
  More info

  Recent studies have pointed out the statistical occurrence of dual-season droughts detected in tree-ring chronologies over the southwestern US region that is not well described by instrumental observed records of the 20th century. In this study, a multi-statistical approach that evaluates persistent dual-season drought using a mode-of-variability oriented approach is proposed, considering a new network of tree-ring earlywood (EW)- and latewood-adjusted (LWadj) chronologies from throughout southwestern North America. To determine dominant patterns of spatiotemporal variability, empirical, orthogonal functions, canonical correlation analysis, and multi-taper-method singular value decomposition analyses were applied, with focus on variability from inter-annual to centennial periods and highlighting the multi-decadal signals inherent to proxy record network. During the instrumental period, we demonstrate that EW and LWadj networks of tree-ring chronologies are able to capture the associated precipitation responses of cool and warm season atmospheric teleconnections. Considering the four-century period of the complete tree-ring network, we explore the possibility of a dual summer–winter variability signal in the low-frequency climate regime. EW and LWadj seem to be coherent in-phase at the very low-frequency scale (50–100 years spectral band). This provocative result is supported by major historic documented multi-year droughts of the region since 1650. Thus, the temporal variation of these chronologies time series and its associated spatial pattern strongly suggest that this low-frequency mode might represents an important spatiotemporal variation of droughts in the Southwest; however, the source of this signal is still an open question and of great interest for drought planning and resource management in the region.
• Fruh, B., Will, A., & Castro, C. L. (2016). Editorial: Recent developments in Regional Climate 1 Modelling with COSMO-CLM, Part 2. METEOROLOGISCHE ZEITSCHRIFT, 25(5), 529-529.
• Lahmers, T. M., Castro, C. L., Adams, D. K., Serra, Y. L., Brost, J. J., & Luong, T. (2016). Long-Term Changes in the Climatology of Transient Inverted Troughs over the North American Monsoon Region and Their Effects on Precipitation. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 29(17), 6037-6064.
• Mazon, J. J., Castro, C. L., Adams, D. K., Chang, H., Carrillo, C. M., & Brost, J. J. (2016). Objective Climatological Analysis of Extreme Weather Events in Arizona during the North American Monsoon. JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY, 55(11), 2431-2450.
• Meixner, T., Manning, A. H., Stonestrom, D. A., Allen, D. M., Ajami, H., Blasch, K. W., Brookfield, A. E., Castro, C. L., Clark, J. F., Gochis, D. J., Flints, A. L., Neff, K. L., Niraula, R., Rodell, M., Scanlon, B. R., Singha, K., & Walvoord, M. A. (2016). Implications of projected climate change for groundwater recharge in the western United States. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY, 534, 124-138.
• Serra, Y. L., Adams, D. K., Minjarez-Sosa, C., Moker, J. M., Arellano, A. F., Castro, C. L., Quintanar, A. I., Alatorre, L., Granados, A., Vazquez, G. E., Holub, K., & Demets, C. (2016). THE NORTH AMERICAN MONSOON GPS TRANSECT EXPERIMENT 2013. BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 97(11), 2103-2115.
• Vazquez, G. E., Serra, Y. L., Quintanar, A. I., Moker, J. M., Minjarez-sosa, C. M., Holub, K. L., Granados, A., Demets, C., Castro, C. L., Arellano, A. F., Alatorre, L. C., & Adams, D. K. (2016). The North American Monsoon GPS Transect Experiment 2013. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 97(11), 2103-2115. doi:10.1175/bams-d-14-00250.1
  More info

  AbstractNorthwestern Mexico experiences large variations in water vapor on seasonal time scales in association with the North American monsoon, as well as during the monsoon associated with upper-tropospheric troughs, mesoscale convective systems, tropical easterly waves, and tropical cyclones. Together these events provide more than half of the annual rainfall to the region. A sufficient density of meteorological observations is required to properly observe, understand, and forecast the important processes contributing to the development of organized convection over northwestern Mexico. The stability of observations over long time periods is also of interest to monitor seasonal and longer-time-scale variability in the water cycle. For more than a decade, the U.S. Global Positioning System (GPS) has been used to obtain tropospheric precipitable water vapor (PWV) for applications in the atmospheric sciences. There is particular interest in establishing these systems where conventional operational meteorolo...
• Carrillo, C. M., Castro, C. L., Woodhouse, C. A., & Griffin, D. (2015). Low frequency variability of the North American monsoon as diagnosed through early and latewood tree-ring chronologies in the Southwest U.S.. International Journal of Climatology.
• Chang, H., Castro, C. L., Carrillo, C. M., & Dominguez, F. (2015). The more extreme nature of US warm season climate in the recent observational record and two "well-performing" dynamically downscaled CMIP3 models. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 120(16), 8244-8263.
• Seastrand, S., Serra, Y., Castro, C., & Ritchie, E. (2015). The dominant synoptic-scale modes of North American monsoon precipitation. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 35(8), 2019-2032.
• Shamir, E., Megdal, S. B., Carrillo, C., Castro, C. L., Chang, H., Chief, K., Corkhill, F. E., Eden, S., Georgakakos, K. P., Nelson, K. M., & Prietto, J. (2015). Climate change and water resources management in the Upper Santa Cruz River, Arizona (vol 521, pg 18, 2015). JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY.
• Shamir, E., Megdal, S. B., Carrillo, C., Castro, C. L., Chang, H., Chief, K., Corkhill, F. E., Eden, S., Georgakakos, K. P., Nelson, K. M., & Prietto, J. (2015). Climate change and water resources management in the Upper Santa Cruz River, Arizona. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY, 521, 18-33.
• Shamir, E., Shamir, E., Shamir, E., Megdal, S. B., Megdal, S. B., Megdal, S. B., Carrillo, C., Carrillo, C., Carrillo, C., Castro, C. L., Castro, C. L., Castro, C. L., Chang, H. I., Chang, H. I., Chang, H. I., Chief, K., Chief, K., Chief, K., Corkhill, F. E., , Corkhill, F. E., et al. (2015). Climate change and water resources management in the Upper Santa Cruz River, Arizona. J. Hydrology, 521, 18-33. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.11.062
• Ciancarelli, B., Castro, C. L., Woodhouse, C., Dominguez, F., Chang, H., Carrillo, C., & Griffin, D. (2014). Dominant patterns of US warm season precipitation variability in a fine resolution observational record, with focus on the southwest. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 34(3), 687-707.
• Rajagopal, S., Dominguez, F., Gupta, H. V., Troch, P. A., & Castro, C. L. (2014). Physical Mechanisms Related to Climate-Induced Drying of Two Semiarid Watersheds in the Southwestern United States. JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY, 15(4), 1404-1418.
• Rajagopal, S., Dominguez, F., Gupta, H. V., Troch, P. A., & Castro, C. L. (2014). Physical mechanisms related to climate-induced drying of two semi-arid watersheds in the southwest US. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 15.
  More info

  doi:10.1175/JHM-D-13-0106.1
• Rivera, E. R., Dominguez, F., & Castro, C. L. (2014). Atmospheric Rivers and Cool Season Extreme Precipitation Events in the Verde River Basin of Arizona. JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY, 15(2), 813-829.
• Dominguez, F., Rivera, E., Lettenmaier, D. P., & Castro, C. L. (2013). Changes in winter precipitation extremes for the western United States under a warmer climate as simulated by regional climate models. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 39.
• Griffin, D., Woodhouse, C. A., Meko, D. M., Stahle, D. W., Faulstich, H. L., Carrillo, C., Touchan, R., Castro, C. L., & Leavitt, S. W. (2013). North American monsoon precipitation reconstructed from tree-ring latewood. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 40(5), 954-958.
• Griffin, D., Woodhouse, C. A., Meko, D. M., Stahle, D. W., Faulstich, H. L., Carrillo, C., Touchan, R., Castro, C. L., & Leavitt, S. W. (2013). North American monsoon precipitation reconstructed from tree-ring latewood. Geophysical Research Letters, 40(5), 954-958.
  More info

  Abstract: The North American monsoon is a major focus of modern and paleoclimate research, but relatively little is known about interannual- to decadal-scale monsoon moisture variability in the pre-instrumental era. This study draws from a new network of subannual tree-ring latewood width chronologies and presents a 470-year reconstruction of monsoon (June-August) standardized precipitation for southwestern North America. Comparison with an independent reconstruction of cool-season (October-April) standardized precipitation indicates that southwestern decadal droughts of the last five centuries were characterized not only by cool-season precipitation deficits but also by concurrent failure of the summer monsoon. Monsoon drought events identified in the past were more severe and persistent than any of the instrumental era. The relationship between winter and summer precipitation is weak, at best, and not time stable. Years with opposing-sign seasonal precipitation anomalies, as noted by other studies, were anomalously frequent during the mid to late 20th century. © 2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
• Meko, D. M., Touchan, R., Woodhouse, C. A., Castro, C. L., Leavitt, S. W., Woodhouse, C. A., Touchan, R., Meko, D. M., Leavitt, S. W., Griffin, D., Diaz, J. V., Castro, C. L., & Carillo, C. (2013). Sierra San Pedro Mártir, Baja California, cool-season precipitation reconstructed from earlywood width of Abies concolor tree rings. Journal of Geophysical Research, 118(4), 1660-1673. doi:10.1002/2013jg002408
  More info

  [1] Tree ring data are analyzed for a multicentury record of drought history in the Sierra San Pedro Martir (SSPM) of Baja California, Mexico. Climatic variation in the study area is of particular interest because the SSPM is a rich biotic environment at the southern limit of the California floristic province and the southern limit of the planetary jet stream. Future shifts in the jet stream would be expected to have amplified effect on this marginal environment. The study applies linear regression to tree ring indices of earlywood-width of Abies concolor to estimate a 353 year (1658–2010 C.E.) record of cool-season (October–April) precipitation, P, in SSPM. Time-nested regression models account for more than half the variance of grid point P in calibration periods of length 50–65 years. Cross-spectral analysis indicates strong tracking of observed P by the reconstruction over a broad range of frequencies. Robustness of the reconstruction is supported by synchrony of reconstructed P with tree ring variations in other tree species from SSPM. The reconstruction emphasizes the severity of the 1950s drought in a long-term context and the single-year intensity of droughts in the last decade: 2007 stands out as the driest reconstructed year, with a high percentage of missing rings in A. concolor. The reconstruction identifies the early twentieth century pluvial as the wettest epoch in the last 353 years in the SSPM. High-elevation tree species in SSPM may be especially well-suited to sensing snowpack-related moisture variations associated with a southerly branched jet stream and the types of weather systems active in the pluvial.
• Shamir, E., Megdal, S. B., Carillo, C., Castro, C. L., Chang, H., Chief, K., Corkhill, F., Eden, S., Georgakakos, K., Nelson, K., & Prietto, J. (2015). Climate change and water resources management in the Upper Santa Cruz River. Journal of Hydrology, 18.
  More info

  Shamir, E., Megdal, S.B., Carrillo, C., Castro, C., Chang, H., Chief, K., Corkhill, F., Eden, S., Georgakakos, K., Nelson, K., and Prietto, J. (2015). Climate change and water resources management in the Upper Santa Cruz River, Arizona. Journal of Hydrology 521, pp. 18-33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.11.062.
• Woodhouse, C. A., Meko, D. M., Griffin, D., & Castro, C. L. (2013). Tree rings and multiseason drought variability in the lower Rio Grande Basin, USA. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 49(2), 844-850.
• Woodhouse, C. A., Meko, D. M., Touchan, R., Leavitt, S. W., Castro, C. L., Ciancarelli, B., Woodhouse, C. A., Touchan, R., Meko, D. M., Leavitt, S. W., Griffin, D., Ciancarelli, B., Castro, C. L., & Carillo, C. M. (2013). Monsoon precipitation reconstructed from tree rings in the southwestern United States. Quaternary International, 310, 233. doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2013.07.077
• Bieda, S. W., Castro, C. L., Mullen, S. L., Comrie, A. C., & Pytlak, E. (2012). The Relationship of Transient Upper-Level Troughs to Variability of the North American Monsoon System. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 22(15), 4213-4227.
• Castro, C. L., Chang, H., Dominguez, F., Carrillo, C., Schemm, J., & Juang, H. H. (2012). Can a Regional Climate Model Improve the Ability to Forecast the North American Monsoon?. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 25(23), 8212-8237.
• Castro, C. L., Chang, H., Dominguez, F., Carrillo, C., Schemm, J., & Juang, H. H. (2012). Can a regional climate model improve the ability to forecast the North American monsoon?. Journal of Climate, 25(23), 8212-8237.
  More info

  Abstract: Global climate models are challenged to represent the North American monsoon, in terms of its climatology and interannual variability. To investigate whether a regional atmospheric model can improve warm season forecasts in North America, a retrospective Climate Forecast System (CFS) model reforecast (1982-2000) and the corresponding NCEP-NCAR reanalysis are dynamically downscaled with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF), with similar parameterization options as used for highresolution numerical weather prediction and a new spectral nudging capability. The regional model improves the climatological representation of monsoon precipitation because of its more realistic representation of the diurnal cycle of convection. However, it is challenged to capture organized, propagating convection at a distance from terrain, regardless of the boundary forcing data used. Dynamical downscaling of CFS generally yields modest improvement in surface temperature and precipitation anomaly correlations in those regions where it is already positive in the global model. For the North American monsoon region, WRF adds value to the seasonally forecast temperature only in early summer and does not add value to the seasonally forecast precipitation. CFS has a greater ability to represent the large-scaleatmospheric circulation in early summer because of the influence of Pacific SST forcing. The temperature and precipitation anomaly correlations in both the global and regional model are thus relatively higher in early summer than late summer. As the dominant modes of early warm season precipitation are better represented in the regional model, given reasonable large-scale atmospheric forcing, dynamical downscalingwill add value to warm season seasonal forecasts. CFS performance appears to be inconsistent in this regard. © 2012 American Meteorological Society.
• Dominguez, F., Rivera, E., Lettenmaier, D. P., & Castro, C. L. (2012). Changes in winter precipitation extremes for the western United States under a warmer climate as simulated by regional climate models. Geophysical Research Letters, 39(5).
  More info

  Abstract: We find a consistent and statistically significant increase in the intensity of future extreme winter precipitation events over the western United States, as simulated by an ensemble of regional climate models (RCMs) driven by IPCC AR4 global climate models (GCMs). All eight simulations analyzed in this work consistently show an increase in the intensity of extreme winter precipitation with the multi-model mean projecting an area-averaged 12.6% increase in 20-year return period and 14.4% increase in 50-year return period daily precipitation. In contrast with extreme precipitation, the multi-model ensemble shows a decrease in mean winter precipitation of approximately 7.5% in the southwestern US, while the interior west shows less statistically robust increases. Copyright 2012 by the American Geophysical Union.
• Leavitt, S. W., Woodhouse, C. A., Castro, C. L., Wright, W. E., Meko, D. M., Touchan, R., Griffin, D., & Ciancarelli, B. (2012). The North American monsoon in the US Southwest: Potential for investigation with tree-ring carbon isotopes. QUATERNARY INTERNATIONAL, 235, 101-107.
• Meko, D. M., Touchan, R., Villanueva Diaz, J., Griffin, D., Woodhouse, C. A., Castro, C. L., Carillo, C., & Leavitt, S. W. (2012). Sierra San Pedro Martir, Baja California, cool-season precipitation reconstructed from earlywood width of Abies concolor tree rings. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-BIOGEOSCIENCES, 118(4), 1660-1673.
• Minjarez-Sosa, C. M., Castro, C. L., Cummins, K. L., Krider, E. P., & Waissmann, J. (2012). Toward development of improved QPE in complex terrain using cloud-to-ground lightning data: A case study for the 2005 Monsoon in Southern Arizona. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 13(6), 1855-1873.
  More info

  Abstract: a study area in southwest Arizona and northwest Mexico. Using seasonal-to-daily and hourly time resolution, the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) stage IV precipitation product and the U.S. National Lightning Detection Network lightning data have been analyzed with the aim of developing an improved understanding of the relationship between these variables. A Gaussian method of spatially smoothing discrete lightning counts is used to estimate convective rainfall and improve the quality and spatial coverage of radar-derived precipitation in areas of complex terrain. For testing the dependence of the relationship betweenCGlightning and precipitation, a precipitation "sensor coverage" analysis has been performed. If locations that have poor sensor coverage are excluded, R2 between lightning and precipitation improves by up to 15%. A complementary way to estimate convective precipitation is proposed based on 1-h lightning occurrence intervals, which is the maximumtime resolution in this study.Wefind that ̃67% of the seasonal 2005 precipitation over the analysis domain is associated with CG lightning. Daily precipitation estimates are improved by specifying a "diurnal day" based on the diurnal maxima and minima in precipitation and CG lightning within the domain. Our method for improving quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) using lightning is able to track and estimate convective precipitation over regions that have poor sensor coverage, particularly in both air mass storms and large multicellular events, with R2 up to 70%. © 2012 American Meteorological Society.
• Nguyen Minh Truong, ., Tran Tan Tien, ., Pielke, R. A., Castro, C. L., & Leoncini, G. (2012). A Modified Kain-Fritsch Scheme and Its Application for the Simulation of an Extreme Precipitation Event in Vietnam. MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW, 137(2), 766-789.
• Truong, N. M., Hang, V. T., Pielke Sr., R. A., Castro, C. L., & Dairaku, K. (2012). Synoptic-scale physical mechanisms associated with the Mei-yu front: A numerical case study in 1999. Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, 48(4), 433-448.
  More info

  Abstract: The Mei-yu front system occurring from 23 to 27 June 1999 consists of the Mei-yu front and the dewpoint front, which confine a warm core extending from the eastern flank of the Tibetan Plateau to the west of 145 E. To further understand the synopticscale physical mechanisms associated with the Mei-yu front system, the present study proposes another insight into the physical significance of the x-component relative vorticity (XRV) whose vertical circulation is expected to tilt isentropic surfaces. The XRV equation diagnoses exhibit that the twisting effect of the planetary vorticity (TEPV) is positive along the Mei-yu front and negative in the dewpoint front region, and tilts isentropic surfaces from south to north in the Mei-yu frontal zone. Conversely, the meridional gradient of the atmospheric buoyancy (MGAB) tilts isentropic surfaces in the opposite direction and maintains negative in the regions where the TEPV is positive and vice versa. Thus, the TEPV plays the role of the Mei-yu frontogenesis, whereas the MGAB demonstrates the Meiyu frontolysis factor. Both terms control the evolution of the cross-front circulation. The other terms show much minor contributions in this case study. The present simulations also indicate that the weakening of the upper-level jet evidently induces the weakening of the Mei-yu front and reduces the amplitude of the East Asia cold trough. Furthermore, the impact can also penetrate into the lower troposphere in terms of mesoscale disturbances and precipitation, proving that the upper-level jet imposes a noticeable top-down influence on the Mei-yu front system. © 2012 Korean Meteorological Society and Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.
• Wi, S., Valdes, J. B., Durcik, M., Dominguez, F., Diaz, H. F., & Castro, C. L. (2012). Climate change projection of snowfall in the Colorado River Basin using dynamical downscaling. Water Resources Research, 48(5). doi:10.1029/2011wr010674
  More info

  [1] Recent observations show a decrease in the fraction of precipitation falling as snowfall in the western United States. In this work we evaluate a historical and future climate simulation over the Colorado River Basin using a 35 km continuous 111 year simulation (1969–2079) of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model with boundary forcing from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research/Met Office's HadCM3 model with A2 emission scenario. The focus of this work is to (1) evaluate the simulated spatiotemporal variability of snowfall in the historical period when compared to observations and (2) project changes in snowfall and the fraction of precipitation that falls as snow during the 21st century. We find that the spatial variability in modeled snowfall in the historical period (1981–2005) is realistically represented when compared to observations. The trends of modeled snowfall are similar to the observed trends except at higher elevations. Examining the continuous 111 year simulation, we find the future projections show statistically significant increases in temperature with larger increases in the northern part of the basin. There are statistically insignificant increases in precipitation, while snowfall shows a statistically significant decrease throughout the period in all but the highest elevations and latitudes. The fraction of total precipitation falling as snow shows statistically significant declines in all regions. The strongest decrease in snowfall is seen at high elevations in the southern part of the basin and low elevations in the northern part of the basin. The regions of most intense decreases in snow experience a decline of approximately 50% in snowfall throughout the 111 year simulation period. The regions of strongest declines in snowfall roughly correspond to the region of migration of the zero degree Celsius line and emphasize snowfall dependence on both altitude and latitude.
• Castro, C. L., Pielke, R. A., & Adegoke, J. O. (2011). Investigation of the summer climate of the contiguous United States and Mexico using the regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS). Part 1: Model climatology (1950-2002). JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 20(15), 3844-3865.
• Leavitt, S. W., Woodhouse, C. A., Castro, C. L., Meko, D. M., Touchan, R., Ciancarelli, B., Wright, W. E., Woodhouse, C. A., Touchan, R., Meko, D. M., Leavitt, S. W., Griffin, D., Ciancarelli, B., & Castro, C. L. (2011). The North American monsoon in the U.S. Southwest: Potential for investigation with tree-ring carbon isotopes. Quaternary International, 235(1), 101-107. doi:10.1016/j.quaint.2010.05.006
  More info

  Abstract The North American Monsoon (NAM) contributes critical summer moisture to the U.S. Southwest from July through September, but instrumental records of monsoon precipitation are limited to 100 years or less. Tree-ring investigation offers a means of improving our understanding of its long-term spatial and temporal variability. Available evidence indicates the stable-carbon isotopic composition (δ 13 C) of tree rings in this region is strongly linked to moisture. In addition to latewood width as a precipitation proxy, the δ 13 C of latewood also appears to be a strong proxy, largely manifesting water stress effects on stomatal conductance and their consequence to isotopic discrimination against 13 CO 2 . In one promising study, the δ 13 C of 11 years of latewood from 8 sites regressed against their corresponding precipitation exhibited a coefficient of −0.061‰ per cm of July + August + September precipitation ( r 2 = 0.41). Long latewood δ 13 C chronologies are currently being developed from tree rings of ponderosa pine and Douglas-fir at several sites in NAM core regions in the Southwest to evaluate its usefulness in supplementing precipitation reconstructions derived from latewood widths. Among planned outcomes, the improved monsoon precipitation records can be used to better evaluate natural variability of NAM precipitation and its linkage to winter precipitation, document the character of monsoon season droughts, and test accuracy of regional climate models.
• Pielke, R. A., Chase, T. N., & Castro, C. L. (2011). Are Present Day Climate Simulations Accurate Enough for Reliable Regional Downscaling. Journal of Contemporary Water Research & Education, 124(1).
  More info

  The motivation for developing downscaling techniques results primarily from the large spatial scales involved in model simulations of weather and of climate change. Climate variables such as temperature, precipitation, and soil moisture are represented as area-averaged values over model grid cells that are typically several hundred kilometers on a side. However, because of high spatial variability, weather and climate information is most useful when it represents relatively small areas. Techniques have been developed over time designed to take information from large model grids and apply it to single points within the grid domain. For example, a weather forecast is more useful if information from a large model grid can be applied to a specific city or small region within the grid. Similarly, climate model information is more useful to water managers, for example, if climate information about a specific watershed can be obtained from a large grid average. Such applications are known as downscaling.
• Zeng, X., Fling, K., Castro, C. L., & Barlage, M. (2010). Comparison of Land–Precipitation Coupling Strength Using Observations and Models. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 11(4), 979-994. doi:10.1175/2010jhm1226.1
  More info

  Abstract Numerous studies have attempted to address the land–precipitation coupling, but scientists’ understanding remains limited and discrepancies still exist from different studies. A new parameter Γ is proposed here to estimate the land–precipitation coupling strength based on the ratio of the covariance between monthly or seasonal precipitation and evaporation anomalies (from their climatological means) over the variance of precipitation anomalies. The Γ value is easy to compute and insensitive to the horizontal scales used; however, it does not provide causality. A relatively high Γ is a necessary—but not sufficient—condition for a relatively strong land–precipitation coupling. A computation of Γ values using two global reanalyses (ECMWF and NCEP), one regional reanalysis [North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR)], and observed precipitation along with Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC)-derived evaporation data indicates that the land–precipitation coupling is stronger in summer and weaker in win...
• Castro, C. L., Pielke, R. A., Adegoke, J. O., Schubert, S. D., & Pegion, P. J. (2009). Investigation of the summer climate of the contiguous United States and Mexico using the regional atmospheric modeling system (RAMS). Part II: Model climate variability. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 20(15), 3866-3887.
• Castro, C. L., Pytlak, E., Mullen, S. L., Comrie, A. C., Castro, C. L., & Bieda, S. W. (2009). The Relationship of Transient Upper-Level Troughs to Variability of the North American Monsoon System. Journal of Climate, 22(15), 4213-4227. doi:10.1175/2009jcli2487.1
  More info

  Relationships between transient upper-tropospheric troughs and warm season convective activity over the southwest United States and northern Mexico are explored. Analysis of geopotential height and vorticity fields from the North American Regional Reanalysis and cloud-to-ground lightning data indicates that the passage of mobile inverted troughs (IVs) significantly enhances convection when it coincides with the peak diurnal cycle (1800‐0900 UTC) over the North American monsoon (NAM) region. The preferred tracks of IVs during early summer are related to the dominant modes of Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) var
• Castro, L. C., Beltrán-Przekurat, A. B., & Pielke, R. (2009). Spatiotemporal variability of precipitation, modeled soil moisture, and vegetation greenness in North America within the recent observational record. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 10(6), 1355-1378.
  More info

  Abstract: Dominant spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation, modeled soil moisture, and vegetation are determined in North America within the recent observational record (late twentieth century onward). These data are from a gridded U.S.-Mexico precipitation product, retrospective long-term integrations of two land surface models, and satellite-derived vegetation greenness. The analysis procedure uses three statistical techniques. First, all the variables are normalized according to the standardized precipitation index procedure. Second, dominant patterns of spatiotemporal variability are determined using multitaper method-singular value decomposition for interannual and longer time scales. The dominant spatiotemporal patterns of precipitation generally conform to known and distinct Pacific SST forcing in the cool and warm seasons. Two specific time scales in precipitation at 9 and 6-7 yr correspond to significant variability in soil moisture and vegetation, respectively. The 9-yr signal is related to precipitation in late fall to early winter, whereas the 6-7-yr signal is related to earlysummer precipitation. Canonical correlation analysis is finally used to confirm that strong covariability between land surface variables and precipitation exists at these specific times of the year. Both signals are strongest in the central and western United States and are consistent with prior global modeling and paleoclimate studies that have investigated drought in North America. © 2009 American Meteorological Society.
• Manuel Minjarez-Sosa, C., Castro, C. L., Cummins, K. L., Krider, E. P., & Waissmann, J. (2009). Toward Development of Improved QPE in Complex Terrain Using Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Data: A Case Study for the 2005 Monsoon in Southern Arizona. JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY, 13(6), 1855-1873.
• Nguyen Minh Truong, ., Vu Thanh Hang, ., Pielke, R. A., Castro, C. L., & Dairaku, K. (2009). Synoptic-scale physical mechanisms associated with the Mei-yu front: A numerical case study in 1999. ASIA-PACIFIC JOURNAL OF ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, 48(4), 433-448.
• Switanek, M. B., Troch, P. A., & Castro, C. L. (2009). Improving Seasonal Predictions of Climate Variability and Water Availability at the Catchment Scale. JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY, 10(6), 1521-1533.
• Truong, N. M., Tien, T. T., Pielke Sr., R. A., Castro, C. L., & Leoncini, G. (2009). A modified Kain-Fritsch scheme and its application for the simulation of an extreme precipitation event in Vietnam. Monthly Weather Review, 137(2), 766-789.
  More info

  Abstract: From 24 to 26 November 2004, an extreme heavy rainfall event occurred in the mountainous provinces of central Vietnam, resulting in severe flooding along local rivers. The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System, version 4.4, is used to simulate this event. In the present study, the convective parameterization scheme includes the original Kain-Fritsch scheme and a modified one in which a new diagnostic equation to compute updraft velocity, closure assumption, and trigger function are developed. These modifications take the vertical gradient of the Exner function perturbation into account, with an on-off coefficient to account for the role of the advective terms. According to the event simulations, the simulated precipitation shows that the modified scheme with the new trigger function gives much better results than the original one. Moreover, the interaction between convection and the larger-scale environment is much stronger near the midtroposphere where the return flow associated with lower-level winter monsoon originates. As a result, the modified scheme produces larger and deeper stratiform clouds and leads to a significant amount of resolvable precipitation. On the contrary, the resolvable precipitation is small when the original scheme is used. The improvement in the simulated precipitation is caused by a more explicit physical mechanism of the new trigger function and suggests that the trigger function needs to be developed along with other components of the scheme, such as closure assumption and cloud model, as a whole. The formalistic inclusion of the advective terms in the new equation gives almost no additional improvement of the simulated precipitation. © 2009 American Meteorological Society.
• Weiss, J. L., Castro, C. L., & Overpeck, J. T. (2009). Distinguishing Pronounced Droughts in the Southwestern United States: Seasonality and Effects of Warmer Temperatures. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 22(22), 5918-5932.
• Weiss, J. L., Castro, C. L., & Overpeck, J. T. (2009). Distinguishing pronounced droughts in the southwestern united states: Seasonality and effects of warmer temperatures. Journal of Climate, 22(22), 5918-5932.
  More info

  Abstract: Higher temperatures increase the moisture-holding capacity of the atmosphere and can lead to greater atmospheric demand for evapotranspiration, especially during warmer seasons of the year. Increases in precipitation or atmospheric humidity ameliorate this enhanced demand, whereas decreases exacerbate it. In the southwestern United States (Southwest), this means the greatest changes in evapotranspirational demand resulting from higher temperatures could occur during the hot-dry foresummer and hot-wet monsoon. Here seasonal differences in surface climate observations are examined to determine how temperature and moisture conditions affected evapotranspirational demand during the pronounced Southwest droughts of the 1950s and 2000s, the latter likely influenced by warmer temperatures now attributed mostly to the buildup of greenhouse gases. In the hot-dry foresummer during the 2000s drought, much of the Southwest experienced significantly warmer temperatures that largely drove greater evapotranspirational demand. Lower atmospheric humidity at this time of year over parts of the region also allowed evapotranspirational demand to increase. Significantly warmer temperatures in the hot-wet monsoon during the more recent drought also primarily drove greater evapotranspirational demand, but only for parts of the region outside of the core North American monsoon area. Had atmospheric humidity during the more recent drought been as low as during the 1950s drought in the core North American monsoon area at this time of year, greater evapotranspirational demand during the 2000s drought could have been more spatially extensive. With projections of future climate indicating continued warming in the region, evapotranspirational demand during the hot-dry and hot-wet seasons possibly will be more severe in future droughts and result in more extreme conditions in the Southwest, a disproportionate amount negatively impacting society. © 2009 American Meteorological Society.
• Castro, C. L., Beltran-Przekurat, A. B., & Pielke, R. A. (2008). Spatiotemporal Variability of Precipitation, Modeled Soil Moisture, and Vegetation Greenness in North America within the Recent Observational Record. JOURNAL OF HYDROMETEOROLOGY, 10(6), 1355-1378.
• Lyon, S. W., Dominguez, F., Gochis, D. J., Brunsell, N. A., Castro, C. L., Chow, F. K., Fan, Y., Fuka, D., Hong, Y., Kucera, P. A., Nesbitt, S. W., Salzmann, N., Schmidli, J., Synder, P. K., Teuling, A. J., Twine, T. E., Levis, S., Lundquist, J. D., Salvucci, G. D., , Sealy, A. M., et al. (2008). Coupling terrestrial and atmospheric water dynamics to improve prediction in a changing environment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 89(9), 1275-1279.
  More info

  Abstract: Atmospheric scientists see a potential in the improvement of climate prediction by coupling terrestrial and atmospheric water dynamics. This is also important to understand local processes such as evapotranspiration and streamflow. Simplifications in numerical models that pertain to terrestrial hydrology must also be addressed because such simplifications can limit the numerical prediction capabilities with respect to how water partition capabilities with respect to how water partitions itself throughout all phases of the cycle. When simplifications have been addressed, understanding the feedback interactions between the land surface and the atmosphere can be done by defining improved feedback metrics for assessing the relative magnitude of soil moisture, vegetation, and snow feedbacks on the atmosphere. There will also be a need on models as groundwater flow, unsaturated zone subsurface flow, atmospheric flow, vegetation dynamics, and landsurface modules that link below and above-ground hydrologic and biogeochemical regimes.
• Rockel, B., Castro, C. L., Pielke Sr., R. A., Storch, H. v., & Leoncini, G. (2008). Dynamical downscaling: Assessment of model system dependent retained and added variability for two different regional climate models. Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres, 113(21).
  More info

  Abstract: In this paper, we compare the retained and added variability obtained using the regional climate model CLM (Climate version of the Local Model of the German Weather Service) to an earlier study using the RAMS (Regional Atmospheric Modeling System) model. Both models yield similar results for their standard configurations with a commonly used nudging technique applied to the driving model fields. Significantly both models do not adequately retain the large-scale variability in total kinetic energy with results poorer on a larger grid domain. Additional experiments with interior nudging, however, permit the retention of large-scale values for both models. The spectral nudging technique permits more added variability at smaller scales than a four-dimensional internal grid nudging on large domains. We also confirmed that dynamic downscaling does not retain (or increase) simulation skill of the large-scale fields over and beyond that which exists in the larger-scale model or reanalysis. Our conclusions should be relevant to all applications of dynamic downscaling for regional climate simulations. Copyright 2008 by the American Geophysical Union.
• Wi, S., Dominguez, F., Durcik, M., Valdes, J., Diaz, H. F., & Castro, C. L. (2008). Climate change projection of snowfall in the Colorado River Basin using dynamical downscaling. WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 48.
• Castro, C. L., Pielke Sr., R. A., & Adegoke, J. O. (2007). Investigation of the summer climate of the contiguous United States and Mexico using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). Part I: Model climatology (1950-2002). Journal of Climate, 20(15), 3844-3865.
  More info

  Abstract: Fifty-three years of the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis I are dynamically downscaled using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) to generate a regional climate model (RCM) climatology of the contiguous United States and Mexico. Data from the RAMS simulations are compared to the recently released North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR), as well as observed precipitation and temperature data. The RAMS simulations show the value added by using a RCM in a process study framework to represent North American summer climate beyond the driving global atmospheric reanalysis. Because of its enhanced representation of the land surface topography, the diurnal cycle of convective rainfall is present. This diurnal cycle largely governs the transitions associated with the evolution of the North American monsoon with regards to rainfall, the surface energy budget, and surface temperature. The lower frequency modes of convective rainfall, though weaker, account for rainfall variability at a remote distance from elevated terrain. As in previous studies with other RCMs, RAMS precipitation is overestimated compared to observations. The Great Plains low-level jet (LLJ) is also well represented in both RAMS and NARR, but the Baja LLJ and associated gulf surges are not. © 2007 American Meteorological Society.
• Castro, C. L., Pielke Sr., R. A., Adegoke, J. O., Schubert, S. D., & Pegion, P. J. (2007). Investigation of the summer climate of the contiguous United States and Mexico using the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS). Part II: Model climate variability. Journal of Climate, 20(15), 3866-3887.
  More info

  Abstract: Summer simulations over the contiguous United States and Mexico with the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) dynamically downscaling the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis I for the period 1950-2002 (described in Part I of the study) are evaluated with respect to the three dominant modes of global SST. Two of these modes are associated with the statistically significant, naturally occurring interannual and interdecadal variability in the Pacific. The remaining mode corresponds to the recent warming of tropical sea surface temperatures. Time-evolving teleconnections associated with Pacific SSTs delay or accelerate the evolution of the North American monsoon. At the period of maximum teleconnectivity in late June and early July, there is an opposite relationship between precipitation in the core monsoon region and the central United States. Use of a regional climate model (RCM) is essential to capture this variability because of its representation of the diurnal cycle of convective rainfall. The RCM also captures the observed long-term changes in Mexican summer rainfall and suggests that these changes are due in part to the recent increase in eastern Pacific SST off the Mexican coast. To establish the physical linkage to remote SST forcing, additional RAMS seasonal weather prediction mode simulations were performed and these results are briefly discussed. In order for RCMs to be successful in a seasonal weather prediction mode for the summer season, it is required that the GCM provide a reasonable representation of the teleconnections and have a climatology that is comparable to a global atmospheric reanalysis. © 2007 American Meteorological Society.
• Lyon, S. W., Dominguez, F., Gochis, D. J., Brunsell, N. A., Castro, C. L., Chow, F. K., Fan, Y., Fuka, D., Hong, Y., Kucera, P. A., Nesbitt, S. W., Salzmann, N., Schmidli, J., Snyder, P. K., Teuling, A. J., Twine, T. E., Levis, S., Lundquist, J. D., Salvucci, G. D., , Sealy, A. M., et al. (2007). Coupling terrestrial and atmospheric water dynamics to improve prediction in a changing environment. BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 89(9), 1275-1279.
• Pielke Sr., R., Stokowski, D., Wang, J., Vukicevic, T., Leoncini, G., Matsui, T., Castro, C. L., Niyogi, D., Kishtawal, C. M., Biazar, A., Doty, K., McNider, R. T., Nair, U., & Tao, W. (2007). Satellite-based model parameterization of diabetic heating. Eos, 88(8), 96-97.
• Rockel, B., Castro, C. L., Pielke, R. A., von Storch, H., & Leoncini, G. (2007). Dynamical downscaling: Assessment of model system dependent retained and added variability for two different regional climate models. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 113(D21).
• Adegoke, J. O., Vezhapparambu, S., Castro, C. L., Pielke, R. A., & Carleton, A. M. (2006). Influence of variations in low-level moisture and soil moisture on the organization of summer convective systems in the U.S. midwest. 86th AMS Annual Meeting.
• Castro, C. L., Pielke Sr., R. A., & Leoncini, G. (2005). Dynamical downscaling: Assessment of value retained and added using the Regional Atmopsheric Modeling System (RAMS). Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres, 110(5), 1-21.
  More info

  Abstract: The value restored and added by dynamical downscaling is quantitatively evaluated by considering the spectral behavior of the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) in relation to its domain size and grid spacing. A regional climate model (RCM) simulation is compared with NCEP Reanalysis data regridded to the RAMS grid at each model analysis time for a set of six basic experiments. At large scales, RAMS underestimates atmospheric variability as determined by the column integrated kinetic energy and integrated moisture flux convergence. As the grid spacing increases or domain size increases, the underestimation of atmospheric variability at large scales worsens. The model simulated evolution of the kinetic energy relative to the reanalysis regridded kinetic energy exhibits a decrease with time, which is more pronounced with larger grid spacing. Additional follow-on experiments confirm that the surface boundary forcing is the dominant factor in generating atmospheric variability for small-scale features and that it exerts greater control on the RCM solution as the influence of lateral boundary conditions diminish. The sensitivity to surface forcing is also influenced by the model parameterizations, as demonstrated by using a different convection scheme. For the particular case considered, dynamical downscaling with RAMS in RCM mode does not retain value of the large scale which exists in the larger global reanalysis. The utility of the RCM, or value added, is to resolve the smaller-scale features which have a greater dependence on the surface boundary. This conclusion regarding RAMS is expected to be true for other RCMs as well. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.
• Hanamean Jr., J. R., Pielke Sr., R. A., Castro, C. L., Ojima, D. S., Reed, B. C., & Gao, Z. (2003). Vegetation greenness impacts on maximum and minimum temperatures in northeast Colorado. Meteorological Applications, 10(3), 203-215.
  More info

  Abstract: The impact of vegetation on the microclimate has not been adequately considered in the analysis of temperature forecasting and modelling. To fill part of this gap, the following study was undertaken. A daily 850-700 mb layer mean temperature, computed from the National Center for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP-NCAR) reanalysis, and satellite-derived greenness values, as defined by NDVI (Normalised Difference Vegetation Index), were correlated with surface maximum and minimum temperatures at six sites in northeast Colorado for the years 1989-98. The NDVI values, representing landscape greenness, act as a proxy for latent heat partitioning via transpiration. These sites encompass a wide array of environments, from irrigated-urban to short-grass prairie. The explained variance (r 2 value) of surface maximum and minimum temperature by only the 850-700 mb layer mean temperature was subtracted from the corresponding explained variance by the 850-700 mb layer mean temperature and NDVI values. The subtraction shows that by including NDVI values in the analysis, the r 2 values, and thus the degree of explanation of the surface temperatures, increase by a mean of 6% for the maxima and 8% for the minima over the period March-October. At most sites, there is a seasonal dependence in the explained variance of the maximum temperatures because of the seasonal cycle of plant growth and senescence. Between individual sites, the highest increase in explained variance occurred at the site with the least amount of anthropogenic influence. This work suggests the vegetation state needs to be included as a factor in surface temperature forecasting, numerical modeling, and climate change assessments.
• Castro, C. L., McKee, T. B., & Pielke Sr., R. A. (2001). The relationship of the North American Monsoon to tropical and North Pacific Sea surface temperatures as revealed by observational analyses. Journal of Climate, 14(24), 4449-4473.
  More info

  Abstract: The North American monsoon is a seasonal shift of upper- and low-level pressure and wind patterns that brings summertime moisture into the southwest United States and ends the late spring wet period in the Great Plains. The interannual variability of the North American monsoon is examined using the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis (1948-98). The diurnal and seasonal evolution of 500-mb geopotential height, integrated moisture flux, and integrated moisture flux convergence are constructed using a 5-day running mean for the months May through September. All of the years are used to calculate an average daily Z score that removes the diurnal, seasonal. and intraseasonal variability. The 30-day average Z score centered about the date is correlated with Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) indices associated with the El Niõ-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Pacific oscillation (NPO). These indices are Niõ-3. a North Pacific index, and a Pacific index that combines the previous two. Regional time-evolving precipitation indices for the Southwest and Great Plains, which consider the total number of wet or dry stations in a region, are also correlated with the SSTA indices. The use of nonnormally distributed point source precipitation data is avoided. Teleconnections are computed relative to the climatological evolution of the North American monsoon, rather than to calendar months, thus more accurately accounting for the climatological changes in the large-scale circulation. Tropical and North Pacific SSTs are related to the occurrence of the Pacific Transition and East Pacific teleconnection patterns, respectively, in June and July. A high (low) NPO phase and El Niõ (La Niã) conditions favor a weaker (stronger) and southward (northward) displaced monsoon ridge. These teleconnection patterns affect the timing and large-scale distribution of monsoon moisture. In the Great Plains, the spring wet season is lengthened (shortened) and early summer rainfall and integrated moisture flux convergence are above (below) average. In the Southwest, monsoon onset is late (early) and early summer rainfall and integrated moisture flux convergence are below (above) average. Relationships with Pacific SSTA indices decay in the later part of the monsoon coincident with weakening of the jet stream across the Pacific and strengthening of the monsoon ridge over North America. The most coherent summer climate patterns occur over the entire western United States when the Pacific index is substantially high or low, such as during the Midwest flood of 1993 and drought of 1988. The Pacific index in spring is a good predictor of early summer height anomalies over the western United States when the time evolution of the North Pacific SST dipole is considered.

Proceedings Publications

• Castro, C. L., Bukovsky, M., Cavazos, T., Cerezo-Mota, R., Giorgi, F., Gutowski, W., Leung, R., Nunes, A., Mearns, L., Solman, S., & Takle, E. (2019, Spring). In Memoriam: The Contributions of Dr. Raymond W. Arritt to Regional Climate Modeling. In European Geophysical Union General Assembly.
• Castro, C. L. (2018). Convective-Permitting Simulations of Extreme Weather and Climate Events in El Salavador with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. In American Meteorological Society Meeting.
• Castro, C. L. (2018). The More Extreme Nature of North American Monsoon Precipitation in the Southwestern United States (Invited Presentation). In Invited Presentation.
• Castro, C. L. (2018). Toward Improvement in Seasonal Forecasting in the Southwest United States Using Regional Climate Product at Convective-Permitting Scale. In Invited presentation.
• Cao, Y., Holmgren, W. F., Holmgren, W. F., Leuthold, M., Betterton, E. A., Castro, C. L., Castro, C. L., Lorenzo, A. T., Lorenzo, A. T., Lorenzo, A. T., Chang, H., & Leuthold, M. S. (2017). An Evaluation of Nine ARW-WRF Microphysics Schemes for Solar Power Forecast in Arizona. In American Meteorological Society Meeting.
• Castro, C. L. (2017). Enhancing the NOAA National Water Center WRF-Hydro model architecture to improve representation of the Midwest and Southwest CONUS climate regions. In American Meteorlogical Society Meeting.
• Castro, C. L. (2017). Evaluating Changes in Extreme Weather During the North American Monsoon in the Southwest U.S. Using High Resolution, Convective-Permitting Regional Atmospheric Modeling. In American Meteorological Society Meeting.
• Castro, C. L. (2015). Evaluating Changes in Extreme Weather During the North American Monsoon in the Southwest U.S. Using High Resolution, Convective-Permitting Regional Atmospheric Modeling. In American Meteorological Society Meeting.
• Lahmers, T. M., Gupta, H. V., Gochis, D., Elsaadani, M., & Castro, C. L. (2015). Optimization of precipitation and streamflow forecasts in the southwest Contiguous US for warm season convection. In American Meteorological Society Meeting.
• Niraula, R., Rodell, M., Meixner, T., Gochis, D., Castro, C. L., & Ajami, H. (2015). How Might Recharge Change Under Projected Climate Change in Western US. In American Geophysical Union Meeting.
• Meixner, T., Manning, A. H., Stonestrom, D. A., Ajami, H., Allen, D. M., Blasch, K. W., Brookfield, A. E., Castro, C. L., Clark, J. F., Clark, J. F., Flint, A. L., Neff, K., Niraula, R., Rodell, M., Scanlon, B. R., Singha, K., Walvoord, M. A., Walvoord, M. A., & Neff, K. L. (2014). Implications of Prospective Climate Change for Groundwater Recharge in the Western United States. In American Geophysical Union.
• Shamir, E., Carillo, C., Castro, C. L., Chang, H., Megdal, S. B., Eden, S., Prietto, J., Shamir, E., Carillo, C., Castro, C. L., Chang, H., Megdal, S. B., Eden, S., & Prietto, J. (2014, June 2014). Water resources vulnerability to climate change in the Upper Santa Cruz River, Arizona. In 7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software (iEMSs), 8.
  More info

  Shamir, E., Carrillo, C., Castro, C., Chang, H., Megdal, S.B., Eden, S., & Prietto, J. (2014). Water resources vulnerability to climate change in the Upper Santa Cruz River, Arizona. In Ames, D., Quinn, N., & Rizzoli, A. (Eds.), Proceedings of the 7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software. San Diego, CA: International Environmental Modelling & Software Society. ISBN: 978-88-9035-744-2
• Castro, C. L. (2000). The climatology and interannual variability of the North American Monsoon as revealed by the NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis. In American Meteorological Society Meeting.

Presentations

• Castro, C. L., Chang, H. I., Risanto, C. B., Loung, T. M., & Hoteit, I. (2021, Spring). Sub-seasonal forecast capability for Arabian Peninsula convective extremes using convective-permitting regional climate modeling. European Geophysical Union General Assembly.
• Bunn, P., Newman, A., Wood, A. F., Chang, H. I., & Castro, C. L. (2021). Improving in Situ Observation-Based Gridded Meteorology Products Using Numerical Weather Prediction Output: A case study of the rain event that caused the Oroville Dam Crisis. 101st American Meteorological Society Meeting.
• Castro, C. L. (2021). GPS Meteorology and high resolution modeling to improve weather forecasting in northwest Mexico. Warn on Forecast Seminar Series, National Severe Storms Laboratory (NOAA): Invited presentation.
• Castro, C. L. (2021, May). La meteorología de GPS y modelación de alta resolución para mejorar el pronóstico del tiempo en el noroeste de México. Invited seminar: Centro de Investigación y de Educación Superior de Ensenada.
• Castro, C. L., Chang, H. I., Oliver, K., Hoteit, I., & Risanto, C. B. (2021). Tracking Mesoscale Convective System Sub-seasonal Forecast in the Arabian Peninsula Through Satellite Observation and Numerical Modeling Prodcuts. 101st American Meteorological Society Meeting.
• Ding, Q., Sun, X., Wang, S. S., Topal, D., Li, Q., Castro, C. L., Teng, H., Luo, R., & Ding, Y. (2021). Enhanced jet stream waviness induced by suppressed tropical Pacific convection. American Geophysical Union Fall 2021 Meeting.
• Castro, C. L., Chang, H. I., Bukovsky, M., & Prein, A. (2020, January). Convective-Permitting Modeling for Retrospective Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Forecasting Using the Framework of the Coordinated Regional Ensemble Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). Eighth Symposium on Weather, Water and Climate Enterprise, 100th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting.
• Castro, C. L., Chang, H., Prein, A. F., & Bukovsky, M. (2020, May). Convective-Permitting Modeling for Retrospective Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Forecasting Using the Framework of the Coordinated Regional Ensemble Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). European Geophysical Union General Assembly.
• Chang, H. I., Castro, C. L., Hoteit, I., Risanto, C. B., & Luong, T. (2020, December). Saudi Arabia extreme weather ensemble forecast evaluation at sub-seasonal timescale. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting.
• Luong, T. M., Castro, C. L., Hoteit, I., Risanto, C. B., Chang, H. I., Chang, H. I., Risanto, C. B., Hoteit, I., Luong, T. M., & Castro, C. L. (2020, January). Simulating Extreme Precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula Using a Convective-Permitting Subseasonal Reforecast Product. 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, 100th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting.
• Luong, T. M., Risanto, C. B., Chang, H., Desari, H. P., Attada, R., Castro, C. L., & Hoteit, I. (2020, May). Simulating extreme precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula using a convective-permitting sub-seasonal reforecast product. European Geophysical Union General Assembly.
• Luong, T., Risanto, C. B., Hoteit, I., Castro, C. L., & Chang, H. I. (2020, December). Saudi Arabia extreme weather ensemble forecast evaluation at sub-seasonal timescale. 2020 American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting. Online.
• Pascale, S., Carvalho, L. M., Adams, D. K., Castro, C. L., & Cavacanti, I. (2020, January). Current and Future Variations of the Monsoons of the Americas in a Warming Climate. 33rd Conference on Climate Variability and Change, 100th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting.
• Wood, A. W., Bunn, P., Newman, A., Chang, H. I., Liu, H., Castro, C. L., & Clark, M. (2020, January). Merging HRRR Output into a Real-Time Gauge-Based Ensemble CONUS-Wide Dataset of Gridded Meteorological Fields. 34th Conference on Hydrology, 100th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting.
• Castro, C. L. (2019, August). The hydrometeorology of the Southwestern United States in a changing global climate. Invited Presentation: King Abdullah University of Science and Technology. Thuwal, Saudi Arabia.
• Castro, C. L. (2019, September). Climate change in Central America: The perspective of the recent observational record and future projections. Workshop on Climate and Migration in Mexico and Central America: Drought, Vulnerability, Livelihoods and Attribution. Tucson, AZ.
• Castro, C. L., & Pascale, S. (2019, November). The North American monsoon in a warming climate. Part II: Extremes and insights from high resolution modeling. Workshop on Monsoon Climate Change and Attribution. Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai, Guangdong, China.
• Castro, C. L., Adams, D. K., Arellano, A. F., Quintanar, A. I., Ochoa-Moya, C., Minjarez-Sosa, C. M., Rodriguez, J., Lizarraga, C., Vivoni, E., Perez-Ruiz, E., Robles, A., Risanto, C. B., Chang, H. I., Mendoza-Fierro, L., & Moker, Jr., J. M. (2019, January). A New Hydrometeorological Testbed in Northern Mexico for Improved Weather Forecasts and Climate Monitoring. 99th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting.
• Castro, C. L., Chang, H. I., Pal, S., & Dominguez, F. (2019, August). Toward improvement in convective precipitation forecasting in the southwest United States using a convective-permitting regional climate model. 2019 Latsis Symposium on High Resolution Climate Modeling: Perspectives and Challenges. Zurich, Switzerland.
• Castro, C. L., Dennis, R., & McMahan, B. (2019, January). Statistically Forecasting Early Warm Season Precipitation in the CONUS Using Canonical Correlation Analysis Applied to CFSv2 Reforecast data. 99th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting.
• Castro, C. L., Luong, T. M., Grossman-Clarke, S., Jares, M., & Chang, H. I. (2019, January). The Impact of Urbanization on North American Monsoon Precipitation in Phoenix, Arizona, Within a Context of Modeled Severe Weather Events. 99th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting.
• Castro, C. L., Prein, A., Chang, H. I., & Bukovsky, M. (2019, Fall). Convective-permitting modeling for retrospective sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasting using the framework of the Coordinated Ensemble Downscaling Experiment. American Geophysical Union Fall 2019 Meeting.
• Castro, C. L., Risanto, C. B., Moker, Jr., J. M., Arellano, A. F., Adams, D. K., & Mendoza-Fierro, L. (2019, January). CAZMEX 2017: Improving Monsoon Precipitation Forecasts in Northwest Mexico and Southwest United States. 99th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting.
• Chang, H. I., Castro, C. L., Loung, T., & Risanto, C. B. (2019, Fall). Extreme weather impacts assessments in arid and semi-arid regions through sub-seasonal regional climate forecasting. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2019.
• Cosgrove, B. A., Zamora, R. J., Wang, Y. H., Karsten, L., Read, L., Yates, D., Dugger, A., Gochis, D., Castro, C. L., Gupta, H. V., Hazenberg, P., & Lahmers, T. (2019, Fall 2019). Demonstrating the Added Values of Suction Losses for Channel Infiltration in WRF-Hydro Hydrologic Model and its Applications in Semiarid Region. 2019 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union. San Franciso CA: American Geophysical Union.
  More info

  Lahmers TM, P Hazenberg, H Gupta, C Castro, D Gochis, A Dugger, D Yates, L Read, L Karsten, YH Wang, RJ Zamora and BA Cosgrove (2019), Implementation and evaluation of channel infiltration in the NOAA National Water Model for semi-arid environments, Session H037 - Continental Scale Modeling: Process Heterogeneity from Summit to Sea, presented at 2019 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union, San Francisco CA, Dec 9-13.
• Goodrich, D., Unkrich, C., Lahmers, T., Castro, C. L., Gupta, H. V., Hazenberg, P., & Wang, Y. H. (2019, Spring). Demonstrating the Added Values of Suction Losses for Channel Infiltration in WRF-Hydro Hydrologic Model and its Applications in Semiarid Region. 2019 Meeting of the American Meteorological Society, Phoenix Arizona, Jan 6-10.. Phoenix, Arizona: AMS.
  More info

  Wang YH, P Hazenberg, H Gupta, C Castro, T Lahmers, C Unkrich and D Goodrich (2019), Demonstrating the Added Values of Suction Losses for Channel Infiltration in WRF-Hydro Hydrologic Model and its Applications in Semiarid Region, session on "Integrated Metrics and Benchmarking for Next-Generation Hydro/Land-Surface Modeling of the Water Cycle”, presented at 2019 Meeting of the American Meteorological Society, Phoenix Arizona, Jan 6-10.
• Hazenberg, P., Goodrich, D. C., Unkrich, C. L., Castro, C. L., Lahmers, T., Gupta, H. V., & Wang, Y. H. (2019, Spring). Examining parameter identifiability of the WRF-Hydro hydrologic model. El Dia del Agua y Atmosphera, Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Arizona, 25 March. Tucson AZ: Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Arizona.
  More info

  Wang YH, HV Gupta, TM Lahmers, CL Castro, CL Unkrich, DC Goodrich and P Hazenberg (2019), Examining parameter identifiability of the WRF-Hydro hydrologic model, presented at El Dia del Agua y Atmosphera, Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Arizona, 25 March.
• Hazenberg, P., Lahmers, T. M., Castro, C. L., Gochis, D., Dugger, A. L., Yates, D. N., Read, L., Wang, Y., Zamora, R. J., & Cosgrove, B. (2019, Fall). Implementation and evaluation of channel infiltration in NOAA National Water Model for semi-arid environments. American Geophysical Union Meeting Fall 2019.
• Korgaonkarz, Y., Gupta, H. V., Goodrich, D., Gochis, D. J., Castro, C. L., Burns, S., Lahmers, T., Hazenberg, P., & Mitchell, M. (2019, Spring). Observed and Simulated Channel Network Infiltration Losses in the Semi-Arid Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed. 2019 Meeting of the American Meteorological Society, Phoenix Arizona, Jan 6-10.. Phoenix, Arizona: AMS.
  More info

  Mitchell M, P Hazenberg, TM Lahmers, S Burns, CL Castro, D Gochis, DC Goodrich, HV Gupta and Y Korgaonkarz (2019), Observed and Simulated Channel Network Infiltration Losses in the Semi-Arid Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed, Arizona, presented at 2019 Meeting of the American Meteorological Society, Phoenix Arizona, Jan 6-10.
• Mitchell, M., Hazenberg, P., Lahmers, T., Burns, S., Castro, C. L., Gochis, D., Goodrich, D. C., Gupta, H. V., & Korgaonkar, Y. (2019, January). Observed and Simulated Channel Network Infiltration Losses in the Semi-Arid Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed. 99th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting.
• Yates, D., Dugger, A., Gochis, D. J., Castro, C. L., Gupta, H. V., Hazenberg, P., & Lahmers, T. (2019, Spring). Enhancements to the WRF-Hydro Hydrologic Model Structure for Semi-Arid Environments. 2019 Meeting of the American Meteorological Society, Phoenix Arizona, Jan 6-10.. Phoenix, Arizona: AMS.
  More info

  Lahmers TM, P Hazenberg, H Gupta, C Castro, D Gochis, A Dugger, D Yates, L Read, L Karsten, YH Wang , RJ Zamora and B Cosgrove (2019), Enhancements to the WRF-Hydro Hydrologic Model Structure for Semi-arid Environments, presented at 2019 Meeting of the American Meteorological Society, Phoenix Arizona, Jan 6-10.
• Castro, C. L. (2018, April). The more extreme nature of North American monsoon precipitation in the Southwestern United States. Climate Assessment for the Southwest and Water Research Resource Center (WRRC) Seminar Series, University of Arizona.
• Castro, C. L. (2018, February). The more extreme nature of North American monsoon precipitation in the Southwestern United States. Arizona Chapter of the American Meteorological Society, Annual Meeting. Arizona State University.
• Castro, C. L. (2018, January). The more extreme nature of North American monsoon precipitation in the Southwest United States.. 98th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting.
• Castro, C. L. (2018, March). The more extreme nature of North American monsoon precipitation in the Southwestern United States.. Southwest Extreme Precipitation Symposium, Scripps Institution of Oceanography..
• Castro, C. L. (2018, March). The more extreme nature of North American monsoon precipitation in the Southwestern United States. Institute for Energy Solutions Workshop, University of Arizona.
• Chorover, J. D., Stanley, M., Mitra, B., Abramson, N., Barron-Gafford, G. A., Knowles, J., Minor, R., Niu, G., Wright, W., Castro, C. L., Eastoe, C., Ferre, P. A., Mcintosh, J. C., Meixner, T., & Dwivedi, R. (2018, Fall). An improved and practical approach for estimating catchment-scale response functions through power spectral analysis. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting. Washington DC.
• Goodrich, D. C., Dugger, A., Yates, D., Gochis, D. J., Castro, C. L., Hazenberg, P., Gupta, H. V., & Lahmers, T. (2018, Spring). Enhancements to the WRF-Hydro Hydrologic Model Structure for Semi-Arid Environments. 32nd AMS Conference on Hydrology, 98th Annual AMS Meeting, Austin, Texas, 7-11 Jan.. Austin, Texas: AMS.
  More info

  Lahmers TM, H Gupta, P Hazenberg, CL Castro, DJ Gochis, D Yates, A Dugger, DC Goodrich (2018), Enhancements to the WRF-Hydro Hydrologic Model Structure for Semi-Arid Environments, presented at 32nd AMS Conference on Hydrology, 98th Annual AMS Meeting, Austin, Texas, 7-11 Jan.
• Goodrich, D., Unkrich, C., Lahmers, T., Castro, C. L., Gupta, H. V., Hazenberg, P., & Wang, Y. H. (2018, Fall 2018). Demonstrating the Added Values of Suction Losses for Channel Infiltration in WRF-Hydro Hydrologic Model and its Applications in Semiarid Region. 2018 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union. Washington DC: American Geophysical Union.
  More info

  Wang YH, P Hazenberg, H Gupta, C Castro, T Lahmers, C Unkrich and D Goodrich (2018), Demonstrating the Added Values of Suction Losses for Channel Infiltration in WRF-Hydro Hydrologic Model and its Applications in Semiarid Region, session H046: Diagnostics, Sensitivity and Uncertainty Analysis of Earth and Environmental Modeling, presented at 2018 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union, Washington DC, Dec 10-14.
• Hoteit, I., Castro, C. L., Oliver, K., & Chang, H. I. (2021, January). Tracking mesoscale convective system sub-seasonal forecast in the Arabian Peninsula through satellite observation and numerical modeling products. 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, 100th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting. Online.
• Lahmers, T., Hazenberg, P., Gupta, H. V., Castro, C. L., Gochis, D. J., Dugger, A., Yates, D., Yates, D., Dugger, A., Gochis, D. J., Castro, C. L., Gupta, H. V., Hazenberg, P., & Lahmers, T. (2018, Fall 2018). Enhancements to the WRF-Hydro Hydrologic Model Structure for Semi-Arid Environments. 2018 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union. Washington, DC: AGU.
  More info

  Lahmers TM, P Hazenberg, H Gupta, C Castro, D Gochis, A Dugger, D Yates, L Read, L Karsten, YH Wang, RJ Zamora and B Cosgrove (2018), Enhancements to the WRF-Hydro Hydrologic Model Structure for Semi-arid Environments, session on Research, Development and Evaluation of the National Water Model and Facilitation of Community Involvement, presented at 2018 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union, Washington DC, Dec 10-14.
• Castro, C. L. (2017, April). Evaluating changes in extreme events during the North American monsoon using convective-permitting regional atmospheric modeling.. Invited department seminar: Jackson School of Geosciences, University of Texas at Austin.
• Castro, C. L. (2017, March). The more extreme nature of North American monsoon precipitation in the Southwest United States. Invited seminar: Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudios Climáticos (CPTEC). Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil.
• Castro, C. L. (2017, May). Potential for Improved S2S Forecasts of the North American Monsoon. Workshop on improving the skill of long-rang weather forecasts (subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) precipitation forecasting. Western States Water Council and California Department of Water Resources.
• Castro, C. L. (2017, November). Assessing Climate Change Impacts for DoD Installations in the Southwest United States During the Warm Season. SERDP and ESTCP 2017 Symposium.
  More info

  SERDP Project of the Year poster presentation
• Castro, C. L. (2017, October). CORDEX Latinoamérica: Proyección del cambio climático en la escala regional para la toma de decisiones y evaluación de sus impactos. [English Translation: Latin American CORDEX: Climate change projection at the regional scale for decision making and impacts evaluation]. 13 Reunión de Consulta de la Comisión de Geofísica. Pan American Institute for Geography and History.. Panama City, Panama.
• Castro, C. L. (2017, October). More Extreme Monsoon Precipitation in the Southwestern U.S. and the Potential Implications for DoD Facilities.. New Resource Conservation Insights in Desert Environments. SERDP & ESTCP Webinar Series..
  More info

  SERDP/ESTCP webinar series
• Castro, C. L., Ochoa, C. A., Chang, H. I., Mejia, J., & Angel, M. C. (2017, Dec). Annual and Diurnal Precipitation Distributions as Simulated by WRF-based CORDEX-Central America. American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting.
• Moker, J. M., Fierro, L. M., Arellano, A. F., Castro, C. L., & Risanto, C. B. (2020, January). Forecasting North American Monsoon Precipitation with Data Assimilation. 24th Conference on Integrated Observing and Assimilation Systems for the Atmosphere, Oceans, and Land Surface (IOAS-AOLS)/100th AMS Annual Meeting,. Boston, MA: AMS.
• Smith, M., Dugger, A., Gochis, D. J., Gupta, H. V., Castro, C. L., & Lahmers, T. (2017, Spring). Enhancing the NOAA National Water Center WRF-Hydro model architecture to improve representation of the Midwest and Southwest CONUS climate regions. 31st Conference on Hydrology, Seattle, WA, American Meteorological Society.. Seattle, WA: American Meteorological Society..
  More info

  Lahmers TM, CL Castro, H Gupta, DJ Gochis, A Dugger, and M Smith (2017), Enhancing the NOAA National Water Center WRF-Hydro model architecture to improve representation of the Midwest and Southwest CONUS climate regions, 31st Conference on Hydrology, Seattle, WA, American Meteorological Society.
• Castro, C. L. (2016, April). Toward physically confident climate change projections in the Southwest United States and beyond. Invited seminar: Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA.
• Castro, C. L. (2016, November 2016). Evaluating changes in extreme events during the North American monsoon using convective-permitting regional atmospheric modeling. Second Workshop on Climate Change, Variability, and Modleling over Central America and Mexico. University of Costa Rica, School of Physics and Geophysical Research.
• Castro, C. L. (2016, October). Las capacidades emergentes de modelos atmosféricos que permiten convección en la investigación del climate [English Translation: Emerging capabilities in convective-permitting atmospheric models in climate research]. Sexto Congreso Nacional de Investigación en Cambio Climático, Zona Noroeste [English Translation: Sixth National Congress on Climate Change Research, Northwest Zone]. University of Sonora, Hermosillo, Sonora, Mexico.
• Lahmers, T., Castro, C. L., Gupta, H. V., Gochis, D., Dugger, A., & Smith, M. (2016, Fall). Enhancing the NOAA National Water Center WRF-Hydro model architecture to improve representation of the Midwest and Southwest CONUS climate regions. 2016 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union.
  More info

  Lahmers TM, CL Castro, HV Gupta, DJ Gochis, A Dugger & M Smith (2016), Enhancing the NOAA National Water Center WRF-Hydro model architecture to improve representation of the Midwest and Southwest CONUS climate regions, Session H044: Forecasting Hydrology at Continental Scale, 2016 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union, San Francisco CA, Dec 12-16
• Means, L., Arritt, R. W., Chang, H., Castro, C. L., Christensen, J. H., Christensen, O. B., Frigon, A., Gutowski, W. J., Kjellstrom, E., Laprise, R., McGinnis, S. A., Nikulin, G., Scinocca, J. F., Sushama, L., & Winger, K. (2016, December). NA-CORDEX: Overview and Sample Results. 2016 American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting. San Francisco, CA.
• Moker, Jr., J. M., Arellano, Jr., A. F., Castro, C. L., & Serra, Y. (2016, January). Impact of Total Precipitable Water Assimilation into North American Monsoon Precipitation Forecasts. 96th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting, 30th Conference on Hydrology. New Orleans, LA.
• Carrillo, C., Castro, C. L., Garfin, G., Chang, H., & Bukovsky, M. (2015, January). Evaluation of the ENSO and PDV natural climate variability on the North American monsoon region using a set of CMIP3 dynamically downscaled products. 29th Conference on Hydrology, 95th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting. Phoenix, Arizona.
• Castro, C. L. (2015, July). Climate Change in the Southwest: What we know and don't know. SERDP-NOAA Climate Change Meeting. Boulder, Colorado.
• Castro, C. L. (2015, June). Convective organization and modeling for the North American monsoon. Tercer Encuentro de Climatología y Meteorología Del Noroeste de México. Mexico City.
• Castro, C. L. (2015, March). El uso de modelos atmosféricos para mejorar predicciones del tiempo y proyecciones del clima en Méxio y Centroamérica (In Spanish) [English translation: The use of regional models to improve weather forecasts and climate projections in Mexico and Central America]. Invited, Seminar. Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. Mexico City.
• Castro, C. L. (2015, September). The North American Monsoon: It's What Makes Summer Weather Interesting the Southwest U.S.. CoCoRAHS webinar series. Colorado State University (webinar).
• Castro, C. L. (2015, September). The use of regional atmospheric models to improve weather forecasts and climate projections for the North American monsoon. Invited Seminar, Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington.
• Castro, C. L., Chang, H., Luong, T., Lahmers, T., Jares, M., & Carrillo, C. (2015, January). Projecting future changes in extreme weather during the North American monsoon in the Southwest with high resolution, convective-permitting regional atmospheric modeling. 29th Conference on Hydrology, 95th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting. Phoenix, Arizona.
• Castro, C. L., Chang, H., Mearns, L., & Bukovsky, M. (2015, Fall). Trend of climate extremes in North America: A comparison between dynamically downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting. San Francisco, California.
• Castro, C. L., Moker, J., Serra, Y., Arellano, A., & Adams, D. K. (2015, November). El uso de modelos atmosféricos para mejorar predicciones del tiempo en la región del monzón de Norteamérica (In Spanish) [English translation: The use of atmospheric models to improve weather forecast prediction in the North American monsoon region]. Reunón anual de Unión Geofísica Mexicano. Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.
• Chang, H. I., Castro, C. L., Mearns, L., & Bukovsky, M. (2015, December). Trend of climate extremes in North America: A comparison between dynamically downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations. American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting. San Francisco, CA: American Geophysical Union.
• Chang, H. I., Castro, C. L., Mearns, L., & Bukovsky, M. (2015, October). North American climate extremes and the relationship with natural variability in dynamically downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 projections. Int. WS: Issues in downscaling of climate change projection. Tsukuba, Japan: Japan Meteorological Research Institute.
• Lahmers, T., Castro, C. L., & Gupta, H. V. (2015, Fall). Optimization of precipitation and streamflow forecasts in the southwest Contiguous US for warm season convection. 2015 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union, San Francisco CA. San Francisco CA: American Geophysical Union.
  More info

  Lahmers T, C Castro and H Gupta (2015) Optimization of precipitation and streamflow forecasts in the southwest Contiguous US for warm season convection, Session XXX: xxx. 2015 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union, San Francisco CA, Dec 14-18
• Lahmers, T., Castro, C. L., Serra, Y., & Brost, J. (2015, January). Assessment of long-term trends of transient inverted tough climatology over the North American Monsoon region from four dynamically downscaled GCMs. 29th Conference on Hydrology, 95th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting. Phoenix, Arizona.
• Luong, T., Castro, C. L., Grossman-Clarke, S., Jares, M., Chang, H., & Carriloo, C. (2015, January). Urban effects on North American monsoon precipitation of 2002-2010: a study within the context of severe weather events. 27th Conference on Climate Variability and Change, 95th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting. Phoenix, Arizona.
• Moker, Jr., J. M., Serra, Y., Castro, C. L., & Arellano, Jr., A. (2015, January). Impact of Precipitable Water on Forecasting the 2013 North American Monsoon. 29th conference on Hydrology, 95th American Meteorological Society Meeting. Phoenix, Arizona.
• Roy, T., Roy, T., Serrat-Capdevilla, A., Serrat-Capdevilla, A., Gupta, H. V., Gupta, H. V., Valdes, J. B., & Valdes, J. B. (2015, Fall). Streamflow Forecasting using Satellite Products: A Benchmark Approach. Can We Reduce Uncertainty by using Multiple Products and Multiple Models?. 2015 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union, San Francisco CA. San Francisco CA: American Geophysical Union.
  More info

  Roy T, A Serrat-Capdevila, H Gupta and J Valdes (2015) Streamflow Forecasting using Satellite Products: A Benchmark Approach. Can We Reduce Uncertainty by using Multiple Products and Multiple Models? Paper H51H-1471, Session XXX: xxx. 2015 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union, San Francisco CA, Dec 14-18
• Roy, T., Serrat-Capdevilla, A., Gupta, H. V., Valdes, J. B., Roy, T., Serrat-Capdevilla, A., Gupta, H. V., & Valdes, J. B. (2015, Summer). Estimating uncertainties in streamflow forecasts using a Bayesian multi-model and multi-product approach. 2015 UCOWR/NIWR/CUAHSI Annual Conference “Water is Not for Gambling: Utilizing Science to Reduce Uncertainty”, Green Valley Ranch Resort Henderson, NV. Green Valley Ranch Resort Henderson, NV: UCOWR/NIWR/CUAHSI Annual Conference.
  More info

  Roy T, A Serrat-Capdevila, H Gupta and J Valdes (2015) Estimating uncertainties in streamflow forecasts using a Bayesian multi-model and multi-product approach, 2015 UCOWR/NIWR/CUAHSI Annual Conference “Water is Not for Gambling: Utilizing Science to Reduce Uncertainty”, Green Valley Ranch Resort Henderson, NV, June 16-18
• Seastrand, S., Serra, Y., Castro, C. L., & Ritchie, E. (2015, January). The Dominant Synoptic-Scale Modes of North American Monsoon Precipitation. 29th Conference on Hydrology, 95th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting.
• Shamir, E., Carrillo, C., Castro, C. L., Chang, H. I., Megdal, S. B., Eden, S., & Prietto, J. (2015, June). Water resources vulnerability to climate change in the Upper Santa Cruz River, Arizona. Proceedings of the 7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software. San Diego, CA: International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software.
• Carrillo, C., Castro, C. L., Chang, H., & Luong, T. (2014, December). Evidence of a low-frequency climate variability mode in the North American Monsoon System as diagnosed by a dynamically downscaled 20th Century Reanalysis. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting. San Francisco, California.
• Castro, C. L. (2014, December). Ensuring a robust regional model experimental design for future projection of extreme weather during the North American monsoon in the Southwest United States. Invited Presentation, U.S. Army Research Laborary. Las Cruces, New Mexico.
• Castro, C. L. (2014, June). Creating a unified perspective of the North American monsoon: from the paleoclimate record to climate change projections. Invited Presentation at BTU Cottbus and Free University of Berlin. Berlin, Germany, and Cottbus, Germany.
• Castro, C. L. (2014, November). Climate Variability and change and the North American monsoon: What have we learned since NAME and where are we going?. Reunión anual de Unión Geofísica Mexicana. Puerto Vallarta, Mexico.
• Castro, C. L., Chang, H., Luong, T., Jares, M., Lahmers, T., & Carrillo, C. (2014, June). Ensuring a robust regional model experimental design for future projection of extreme weather during the North American monsoon in the Southwest United States. 21st Century Challenges in Regional Climate Modeling Workshop. Lund, Sweden.
• Castro, C. L., Chang, H., Woodhouse, C., Carrillo, C., Ciancarelli, B., & Griffin, D. (2014, January). Creating a unified perspective of the North American monsoon: from the paleoclimate record to climate change projections. 28th Conference on Hydrology, 94th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting. Atlanta, Georgia.
• Lahmers, T., Castro, C. L., Serra, Y., & Brost, J. (2014, January). Long-term changes in the climatology of transient inverted troughs over the North American Monsoon region and their effects on severe weather. 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, 94th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting. Atlanta, Georgia.
• Shamir, E., Megdal, S., Eden, S., Castro, C. L., Carrillo, C., & Chang, H. (2014, January). Assessment of climate change impact on groundwater reservoirs and water resource management in Upper Santa Cruz River, Arizona. 28th Conference on Hydrology, 94th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting. Atlanta, Georgia.
• Castro, C. L. (2013, November). Proyecciones del cambio climático en Latinoamérica: Cómo se puede generar información útil en la escala regional para tomar decisiones? [English translation: Climate Change projections in Latin America: how can useful information be generated on the regional scale for decision making?}. 12th Reunión de Consulta de la Comisión de Geofísica. Instituto Panamericano de Geografía e Historia.. Montevideo, Uruguay.
• Castro, C. L., Chang, H., & Leuthold, M. (2013, 2013). Seasonal forecasting and climate change projection of the American monsoon using a regional atmospheric model. 2013 American Geophysical Union Meeting of the Americas. Cancún, Mexico.
• Castro, C. L., Chang, H., & Leuthold, M. (2013, May). Assessing Climate Change Impacts for Military Installations in the Southwest United States During the Warm Season. 2013 American Geophysical Union Meeting of the Americas. Cancún, Mexico.
• Castro, C. L., Luong, T., Nguyen, T., Luong, T., Castro, C. L., Nguyen, T., & Cassell, W. (2013, January). Improvement in the representation of warm season convective precipitation in complex terrain using a modified Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization scheme. 93rd American Meteorological Society Meeting,. Austin, Texas.
• Chang, H. I., Castro, C. L., & Niu, G. (2013, December). Impact of dynamic vegetation on evolution of the North American Monsoon region in a regional climate model.. 46th American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting. San Francisco, CA: American Geophysical Union.
• Chang, H., Castro, C. L., & Niu, G. (2013, December). Impact of dynamic vegetation on the evolution of the North American monsoon in a regional climate model. Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union. San Francisco, California.
• Chang, H., Castro, C. L., Troch, P., Switanek, M., Luong, T., & Dominguez, F. (2013, January). Dynamically Downscaled IPCC RCM Climate Projection for the Southwest and their Applicability in Hydrologic Resource Projection.. 93rd American Meteorological Society Meeting, 27th Conference on Hydrology. Austin, Texas.
• Luong, T., Nguyen, T. M., Castro, C. L., Chang, H., & Carrillo, C. (2013, December). Improvement in the representation of the North American monsoon convective precipitation in a 20-year climate simulation using a modified Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization scheme. 2013 Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union.
• Chang, H. I., Castro, C. L., Dominguez, F., & Monson, R. K. (2012, December). The synergistic relationship of climate change and natural variability in consideration of dynamically downscaled warm season climate projections in North America. 45th American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting. San Francisco, CA: American Geophysical Union.
• Chang, H. I., Castro, C. L., Carillo, C., & Dominguez, F. (2011, December). Future regional climate assessment for the Southwest U.S. Summer monsoon region using dynamically downscaled IPCC scenarios. 44th American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting. San Francisco, CA: American Geophysical Union.
• Chang, H. I., Castro, C. L., Dominguez, F., & Ciancarelli, B. (2010, December). Potential Improvement in Warm Season North American Monsoon Forecast Using Dynamically Downscaled GCM Data. 43rd American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco. San Francisco: American Geophysical Union.

Poster Presentations

• Fierro, L. M., Castro, C. L., Ochoa-Moya, C. A., & Quintanar, A. I. (2021). Short-Term NWP Forecast and Regional Climate Modeling Evaluation in Convective Permitting Simulations of Weather and Climate Events in El Salvador with the Weather Research and Forecasting Modeling. 101st American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting.
• Luong, T. M., Dasari, H. P., Chang, H. I., Attada, R., Risanto, C. B., Castro, C. L., & Hoteit, I. (2021). Sub-seasonal rainfall climatology and predictability of the West coast of the Red Sea. American Geophysical Union Fall 2021 Meeting.
• Luong, T., Risanto, C. B., Dasari, H. P., Chang, H. I., Castro, C. L., & Hoteit, I. (2021). Added Value of Cloud-Resolving Modelling for the Simulation of Arabian Peninsula Winter Rainfall. American Geophysical Union Fall 2021 Meeting.
• Castro, C. L., Bunn, P., Holmgren, W. F., & Leuthold, M. S. (2020, January). Using GEOS-5 Forecast Products to Represent Aerosol Characteristics in Operational Day-Ahead Solar Irradiance Forecasts, for the Southwest United States. 11th Conference on Weather, Climate, and the New Energy Economy, 100th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting.
• Lahmers, T. M., Castro, C. L., & Hazenbert, P. (2020, January). Effects of Lateral Flow on Surface-Atmosphere Feedbacks and Convection in Coupled Mesoscale Atmospheric and Distributed Hydrologic Modeling System for a Semiarid Environment. 34th Conference on Hydrology, 100th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting.
• Lahmers, T. M., Hazenberg, P., Gupta, H. V., Castro, C. L., Gochis, D., Dugger, A., Yates, D., Read, L., Wang, Y., Zamora, R., & Cosgrove, B. (2020, January). Implementation and Evaluation of Channel Infiltration in NOAA National Water Model for Semiarid Environments. 34th Conference on Hydrology, 100th American Meteorological Society Meeting.
• Oliver, K., Castro, C. L., Chang, H. I., Dong, X., Cui, W., Hoteit, I., & Luong, T. M. (2020, January). Tracking Extreme Precipitation Events Using Satellite Infrared to Improve MCS Predictability. 19th Annual Student Conference, 100th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting.
• Castro, C. L., Bunn, P., Chang, H. I., Bearup, L., & Halper, E. (2019, January). Assessment of North American Monsoon Variability in the Lower Santa Cruz Basin Using Dynamically Downscaled CMIP5 Projections. 99th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting.
• Chang, H. I., Castro, C. L., Hoteit, I., Risanto, C. B., Loung, T., & Attada, R. (2019, August). Extreme weather impact assessment in Saudi Arabia and operational sub-seasonal forecasting. 2019 Latsis Symposium on High Resolution Climate Modeling: Perspectives and Challenges. Zurich, Switzerland.
• Shamir, E., Halper, E., Georgakakos, K. P., Chang, H. I., Lahmers, T., & Castro, C. L. (2019, January). Impact of Climate Model "Downscaling" on Projected Water Resources in Arid Basins, Two Case Studies From Arizona. 99th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting.
• Castro, C. L., Moker, Jr., J. M., Serra, Y., Arellano, A. F., & Adams, D. K. (2018, January). Convective-permitting hindcast simulations during the North American monsoon GPS Transect Experiment 2013: Establishing baseline model performance.. 98th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting.
• Castro, C. L., Ochoa, C. A., & Quintanar, A. (2018, January 2018). Convective-Permitting Simulations of Extreme Weather and Climate Events in El Salvador with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. 98th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting.
• Dennis, R., Castro, C. L., & Chang, H. (2018, September). The Skill of Statistically Forecasting the Early Monsoon Onset in the Southwestern United States at a Subseasonal to Seasonal Timescale. International Conferences on Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction, National Center for Atmospheric Research.
• Sujan, P., Chang, H., Castro, C. L., & Dominguez, F. (2018, January). Towards Improvement in Seasonal Forecasting Using a Regional Climate Product at the Convective-Permitting Scale.. 98th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting.
• Sujan, P., Chang, H., Castro, C. L., & Dominguez, F. (2018, September). Towards Improvement in Seasonal Forecasting Using a Regional Climate Product at the Convective-Permitting Scale.. International Conferences on Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction, National Center For Atmospheric Research.
• Castro, C. L., Chang, H. I., Luong, T., Carillo, C., Lahmers, T., Jares, M., & Mazon, J. (2017, January). Evaluating Changes in Extreme Weather During the North American Monsoon in the Southwest U.S. Using High Resolution, Convective-Permitting Regional Atmospheric Modeling. 97th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting. Seattle, WA: American Meteorological Society.
• Chang, H. I., Castro, C. L., Castro, C. L., & Chang, H. I. (2017, Dec). North American monsoon hydroclimat eextremes in the Southwest U.S. influenced by dynamically downscaled CMIP5 ensembles. American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting.
• Chang, H. I., Castro, C. L., Megdal, S. B., & Tapia, E. (2017, January). Toward Improved Seasonal Forecasting of Water Resources and North American monsoon Precipitation in the Southwestern United States. 97th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting. Seattle, WA: American Meteorological Society.
• Chang, H. I., Lorenzo, A. T., Castro, C. L., Betterton, E. A., Leuthold, M. S., Holmgren, W. F., & Cao, Y. (2017, January). An Evaluation of Nine ARW-WRF Microphysics Schemes for Solar Power Forecast in Arizona. 97th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society. Seattle.
• Lahmers, T. M., Castro, C. L., Gupta, H. V., Gochis, D. J., Dugger, A. A., & Smith, M. (2017, January). Enhancing the NOAA National Water Center WRF-Hydro model architecture to improve representation of the Midwest and Southwest CONUS climate regions. 97th American Meteorological Society meeting, 31st Conference on Hydrology.
• Mazon, J., Adams, D. K., Carrillo, C. M., Jares, M., Lahmers, T., Luong, T. M., Castro, C. L., & Chang, H. I. (2017, Dec). The more extreme nature of North American monsoon precipitation in the Southwestern United States. Americal Geophysical Union Annual Meeting.
• Castro, C. L., Chang, H. I., Luong, T., Lahmers, T., Jares, M., Mezon, J., Carrillo, C., Adams, D., Castro, C. L., Chang, H. I., Luong, T., Lahmers, T., Jares, M., Mezon, J., Carrillo, C., & Adams, D. (2016, August). Evaluating Changes in Extreme Weather During the North American Monsoon in the Southwest U.S. Using High Resolution, Convective-Permitting Regional Atmospheric Modeling. GEWEX Convection-Permitting Climate Modeling Workshop. Boulder, CO: National Center for Atmospheric Research.
• Castro, C. L., Chang, H., Luong, T., Lahmers, T., Jares, M., Carrillo, C., Adams, D. K., & Mazon, J. (2016, September). Evaluating Changes in Extreme Weather During the North American Monsoon in the Southwest U.S. Using High Resolution, Convective-permitting Regional Atmospheric Modeling. GEWEX Convective-Permitting Climate Modeling Workshop. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO.
• Luong, T. M., Castro, C. L., Ochoa, C. A., Quintanar, A., & Adams, D. K. (2016, December). Extreme Precipitation Events in the Valley of Mexico as Revealed by a Long-Term Climate Simulation (A13A-0211). 2016 American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting. San Francisco, CA.
• Castro, C. L., Chang, H., Luong, T., Jares, M., Mazon, J., Carrillo, C., & Adams, D. K. (2015, December). Evaluating Changes in Extreme Weather During the North American Monsoon in the Southwest U.S. Using High Resolution, Convective Permitting Regional Atmospheric Modeling. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting. San Francisco, California.
• Castro, C. L., Lahmers, T., Serra, Y., Brost, J., Luong, T., & Adams, D. K. (2015, December). Assessment of Long-Term Trends in Transient Inverted Troughs within the North American monsoon region: Mechanisms and Implications for Warm season precipitation. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting. San Francisco, California.
• Castro, C. L., Luong, T., Chang, H., Lahmers, T., Carrillo, C., Jares, M., & Adams, D. K. (2015, December 2015). Evaluating Changes in Extreme Weather During the North American Monsoon in the Southwest U.S. Using High Resolution, Convective Permitting Modeling. American Geophysical Union, Fall 2015 Meeting.
• Castro, C. L., Chang, H., Lahmers, T., Carrillo, C., Luong, T., Jares, M., Stutler, J., Mazon, J., & Leuthold, M. (2014, January). Assessing climate change impacts for DoD installations in the Southwest United States during the warm season: Progress toward characterizing the historical record. 26th Conference on Climate Variability and Change, 94th American Meteorological Society Meeting. Atlanta, Georgia.
• Castro, C. L., Chang, H., Luong, T., Lahmers, T., Jares, M., & Carrillo, C. (2014, December). Projecting Future Change in Extreme Weather During the North American Monsoon in the Southwest Using High Resolution, Convective-Permitting Regional Atmospheric Modeling. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting. San Francisco, California.
• Chang, H. I., Troch, P. A., Castro, C. L., & Mukherjee, R. (2014, June). Regional climate and streamflow projections in North America under IPCC CMIP5 scenarios. 3rd Lund Regional-scale Climate Modeling Workshop. Lund, Sweden: Lund University.
• Chang, H., Castro, C. L., Troch, P., & Mukherjee, R. (2014, December). Regional climate and streamflow projections in North America under IPCC CMIP5 scenarios. American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting. San Francisco, California.
• Jares, M., Castro, C. L., Chang, H., Carrillo, C., Mazon, J., Stutler, J., & Brost, J. (2014, January). High Resolution WRF Simulation and Climatological Analysis of Severe Weather Events During the North American Monsoon. 26th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting, 22nd Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, 94th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting. Atlanta, Georgia.
• Castro, C. L., Chang, H., & Leuthold, M. (2013, January). Assessing Climate Change Impacts for Military Installations in the Southwest United States During the Warm Season. 93rd American Meteorological Society Meeting, 27th Conference on Hydrology. Austin, Texas.
• Mazon, J., Castro, C. L., Chang, H., Leuthold, M., & Brost, J. (2013, Januay). Objective Climatological Analysis of Warm Season Extreme Events During the North American monsoon. 93rd American Meteorological Society Meeting, Symposium on the Role of Statistical Methods in Weather and Cliamte Projection.
• Stutler, J., Castro, C. L., Brost, J., & Chang, H. (2013, January). Determining Gulf Surge Contributions to NAM Precipitation Using Observational and Reanalysis Data.. 93rd Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting, 25th Conference on Climate Variability and Change. Austin, Texas.
• Chang, H. I., Carrillo, C., Demaria, E., Dominguez, F., Castro, C. L., & Durcik, M. (2011, May). Dynamical downscaling of global climate model products for water resource projection in the Southwest U.S. Sustainability on the Border: Water, Climate and Social Change in a Fragile Landscape. El Paso, TX: University of Texas, El Paso.
• Chang, H. I., Castro, C. L., & Ciancarelli, B. (2010, December). Statistical Analysis and Verification of Dynamically Downscaled Seasonal Forecast for the Summer North American Monsoon Region. 43rd American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting. San Francisco, CA: American Geophysical Union.

Creative Productions

• Cassell, B., Castro, C. L., & Chang, H. I. (2017. Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment - North America (WRF climate outputs)National Center for Atmospheric Research. https://www.earthsystemgrid.org/search/cordexsearch.html
  More info

  Part of NA CORDEX data archive: Dynamically downscaled CMIP5 regional climate data using WRF regional climate model. Two sets of CMIP5 products are downscaled (MPI ECHAM6 and HadGEM2) at 25 and 50km resolution for 1950-2100. ERA-Interim Reanalysis is also downscaled at 25 and 50 km resolution for 1979-2016, it is used as CMIP5 downscaled product validation baseline.

Others

• Castro, C. L., Meadow, A., LeRoy, S. R., & Weiss, J. L. (2018, June). Climate Change Impacts on the North American Monsoon: Summary for Tohono O’odham Nation. Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS).
• Castro, C. L. (2017, May). Assessing climate change impacts for DoD installations in the southwest United States during the warm season. Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program, Final Rep. RC-2205. www.serdp-estcp.org/Program-Areas/Resource-Conservation-and-Resliency/Infrastructure-Resiliency/Vulnerability-and-Impact-Assessment/RC-2205.
  More info

  Final Technical report for SERDP project RC-2205
• Kotamarthi, R., Mearns, L., Hayhoe, K., Castro, C. L., & Wuebbles, D. (2016, July). Use of Climate Information for Decision Making and Impacts Research: State of Our Understanding. Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP) Project RC-2242, Technical Report.
• Jones, R., McGregor, J., Castro, C. L., & Smith, J. (2015, February). Climate Change and Impact Modeling Experts' Report, TA-8090: Building Capacity for Climate Resilience, Climate Modeling Advisory Group. Prepared for the Government of Tajikistan and the Asian Development Bank.