Daniel Arnon

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Journals/Publications

• Arnon, D., & Edwards, P. (2024). Contentious Politics in the Borderlands: How Nonviolence and Migrant Characteristics Affect Public Attitudes. Journal of Peace Research.
• Arnon, D., Villa, D., & Reiter, D. (2022). Causes of Foreign-Imposed Regime Change: The Signal of Economic Expropriation. Journal of Conflict Resolution, 66(4-5), 651-676. doi:10.1177/00220027211070604
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  Why do major powers attempt foreign-imposed regime change (FIRC)? This article builds on existing security theory, proposing that a major power looks for signals that a government might exit that major power’s international hierarchy and/or enter an adversary’s hierarchy. Major powers are more likely to attempt FIRC against states that signal shifting preferences. The article tests the theory on American FIRC attempts from 1947 to 1989, covert and overt, failed and successful, proposing that when a hierarchy member or neutral state engaged in economic expropriation, this signaled possible exit from the US hierarchy and/or entry into the Soviet hierarchy, making a US FIRC attempt against that state more likely. It also presents an alternative theory, that economic special interests drove US FIRC attempts. Using new data on expropriations, the article supports the security theory, as expropriations by US hierarchy members made FIRC attempts more likely, but does not support the special interests theory.
• Arnon, D., Nicastro, E., D'Antiga, L., Carota, J., Tizzoni, M., Lokmanoglu, A., Walter, D., & Ophir, Y. (2021). The Framing of COVID-19 in Italian Media and Its Relationship with Community Mobility: A Mixed-Method Approach. Journal of Health Communication. doi:10.1080/10810730.2021.1899344
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  Media framing of epidemics was found to influence public perceptions and behaviors in experiments, yet no research has been conducted on real-world behaviors during public health crises. We examined the relationship between Italian news media coverage of COVID-19 and compliance with stay-at-home orders, which could impact the spread of epidemics. We used a computational method for framing analysis (ANTMN) and combined it with Google's Community Mobility data. A time-series analysis using vector autoregressive models showed that the Italian media used media frames that were largely congruent with ones used by journalists in other countries: A scientific frame focusing on symptoms and health effects, a containment frame focusing on attempts to ameliorate risks, and a social frame, focusing on political and social impact. The prominence of different media frames over time was associated with changes in Italians' mobility patterns. Specifically, we found that the social frame was associated with increased mobility, whereas the containment frame was associated with decreased mobility. The results demonstrate that the ways the news media discuss epidemics can influence changes in community mobility, above and beyond the effect of the number of deaths per day.