Jeffrey David Michler

Interests

Research

International development, industrial organization, experimental economics

Courses

Scholarly Contributions

Journals/Publications

• Michler, J. D. (2022). Risk, crop yields, and weather index insurance in village India. Journal of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, 1(1), 61-81. doi:10.1002/jaa2.9
• Arouna, A., Lokossou, J. C., & Michler, J. D. (2021). Contract farming and rural transformation: Evidence from a field experiment in Benin.. Journal of development economics, 151, 102626. doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2021.102626
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  Contract farming has emerged as a popular mechanism to encourage vertical coordination in developing country agriculture. Yet, there is a lack of consensus on its ability to spur structural transformation in rural economies. We present results from a field experiment on contract farming for rice production in Benin. While all contracts have positive effects on welfare and productivity measures, we find that the simplest contract has impacts nearly as large as contracts with additional attributes. This suggests that once price risk is resolved through the offer of a fixed-price contract, farmers are able to address other constraints on their own.
• Arouna, A., Michler, J. D., Saito, K., & Yergo, W. G. (2021). One Size Fits All? Experimental Evidence on the Digital Delivery of Personalized Extension Advice in Nigeria. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 103(2), 596-619. doi:10.1111/ajae.12151
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  Blanket advice on optimal fertilizer application rates has failed to achieve potential yield gains for crop production in much of Sub‐Saharan Africa. However, digital technology now makes it possible to deliver personalized extension services to farmers at a much lower cost. We present results from a randomized control trial designed to evaluate the effectiveness of a mobile application that provides personalized advice on rice nutrient management. We find that households who were just given the personalized advice increase their yield by 7% and increase their profit by 10%. On average, personalized advice increases yields without increasing the overall quantity of fertilizer used. We conclude that the scaling of personalized extension services could improve productivity and livelihoods in Sub‐Saharan Africa without necessarily increasing the total amount of fertilizer in use.
• Josephson, A., Kilic, T., & Michler, J. D. (2021). Socioeconomic impacts of COVID-19 in low-income countries.. Nature Human Behaviour, 5(5), 557-565. doi:10.1038/s41562-021-01096-7
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  The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 and attempts to limit its spread have resulted in a contraction of the global economy. Here we document the socioeconomic impacts of the pandemic among households, adults and children in low-income countries. To do so, we rely on longitudinal household survey data from Ethiopia, Malawi, Nigeria and Uganda, originating from pre-COVID-19 face-to-face household surveys plus phone surveys implemented during the pandemic. We estimate that 256 million individuals-77% of the population-live in households that have lost income during the pandemic. Attempts to cope with this loss are exacerbated by food insecurity and an inability to access medicine and staple foods. Finally, we find that student-teacher contact has dropped from a pre-COVID-19 rate of 96% to just 17% among households with school-aged children. These findings can inform decisions by governments and international organizations on measures to mitigate the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Josephson, A., Masters, W. A., & Michler, J. D. (2021). Research ethics beyond the IRB: Selection bias and the direction of innovation in applied economics. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 43(4), 1352-1365. doi:10.1002/aepp.13132
• Michler, J. D. (2020). Agriculture in the process of development: A micro-perspective. World Development, 129, 104888. doi:10.1016/j.worlddev.2020.104888
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  Abstract This paper compares national-level data from India with 40 years of household panel data from rural India to track sectoral changes in employment and income as well as examine the hypothesis of induced innovation in agricultural production. In the national data, India appears to be in the midst of a structural transformation. The share of agriculture in GDP and employment has shrunk while agricultural output continues to grow. This productivity growth appears to adhere to the induced innovation hypothesis, as productivity per hectare has increased more rapidly than productivity per worker. Many of the same patterns exist in the household data. Tracking households across time, I observe agricultural output has increased, despite more households engaging in off-farm labor. Household agricultural production is highly specialized and has increased its reliance on improved inputs. However, while agricultural income has grown, industrial and service income has remained stagnant, and the relative income of these households has declined in recent years.
• Michler, J. D., & Wu, S. Y. (2020). Governance and contract choice: Theory and evidence from groundwater irrigation markets. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, 180, 129-147. doi:10.1016/j.jebo.2020.09.031
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  Abstract This paper examines the role governance institutions play in the adoption of contracts. We develop a simple model of the contracting relationship in a setting where unverifiable outcomes exist and use it to interpret data on groundwater irrigation contracts in Bangladesh. A distinguishing feature of this market is the variety of village-level institutions which impose different degrees of punishment for contract violation. Consistent with the model, we find households adopt contracts that rely on unverifiable outcomes, which are not formally contractible, when punishment for contract violation is weak. Conversely, households adopt contracts that rely on formally contractible and verifiable outcomes when punishment is severe. This evidence is consistent with contract terms being chosen optimally given what is or is not formally contractible.
• Michler, J. D., & Wu, S. Y. (2020). Relational Contracts in Agriculture: Theory and Evidence. Annual Review of Resource Economics, 12(1), 111-127. doi:10.1146/annurev-resource-101719-034514
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  We appraise the current status of relational contract theory, along with associated empirical studies, with the goal of providing an orientation to the field to economists who may not have expertis...
• Michler, J. D., Baylis, K., Arends-kuenning, M., & Mazvimavi, K. (2019). Conservation agriculture and climate resilience.. Journal of environmental economics and management, 93, 148-169. doi:10.1016/j.jeem.2018.11.008
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  Agricultural productivity growth is vital for economic and food security outcomes which are threatened by climate change. In response, governments and development agencies are encouraging the adoption of 'climate-smart' agricultural technologies, such as conservation agriculture (CA). However, there is little rigorous evidence that demonstrates the effect of CA on production or climate resilience, and what evidence exists is hampered by selection bias. Using panel data from Zimbabwe, we test how CA performs during extreme rainfall events - both shortfalls and surpluses. We control for the endogenous adoption decision and find that use of CA in years of average rainfall results in no yield gains, and in some cases yield loses. However, CA is effective in mitigating the negative impacts of deviations in rainfall. We conclude that the lower yields during normal rainfall seasons may be a proximate factor in low uptake of CA. Policy should focus promotion of CA on these climate resilience benefits.
• Michler, J. D., Tjernstrom, E., Verkaart, S., & Mausch, K. (2019). Money Matters: The Role of Yields and Profits in Agricultural Technology Adoption. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 101(3), 710-731. doi:10.1093/ajae/aay050
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  Despite the growing attention to technology adoption in the economics literature, knowledge gaps remain regarding why some valuable technologies are rapidly adopted, while others are not. This paper contributes to our understanding of agricultural technology adoption by showing that a focus on yield gains may, in some contexts, be misguided. We study a technology in Ethiopia that has no impact on yields, but that has nonetheless been widely adopted. Using three waves of panel data, we estimate a correlated random coefficient model and calculate the returns to improved chickpea in terms of yields, costs, and profits. We find that farmers’ comparative advantage does not play a significant role in their adoption decisions and hypothesize that this is due to the overall high economic returns to adoption, despite the limited yield impacts of the technology. Our results suggest economic measures of returns may be more relevant than increases in yields in explaining technology adoption decisions.
• Slade, P., Michler, J. D., & Josephson, A. (2019). Foreign Geographical Indications, Consumer Preferences, and the Domestic Market for Cheese. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, 41(3), 370-390. doi:10.1093/aepp/ppz010
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  The protection of geographical indications (GIs) is an important feature of modern trade agreements. In the Canada-European Union Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA), Canada agreed to stronger protections for GIs of European cheeses and other food products. Under this agreement, new Canadian producers can no longer label cheese as “feta” but instead must refer to it as “imitation feta,” “feta style,” or “feta type.” We use a choice experiment to determine the effect of this agreement on Canadian cheese producers. We find that the effect of GI recognition varies depending on the terms used to label Canadian cheese and the information given to consumers. The results imply that policies that give greater latitude to food marketers will weaken the impact of GI recognition.
• Cabanillas, O. B., Michler, J. D., Michuda, A., & Tjernstrom, E. (2018). Fitting and interpreting correlated random-coefficient models using Stata. Stata Journal, 18(1), 159-173. doi:10.1177/1536867x1801800109
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  In this article, we introduce the community-contributed command randcoef, which fits the correlated random-effects and correlated random-coefficient models discussed in Suri (2011, Econometrica 79: 159–209). While this approach has been around for a decade, its use has been limited by the computationally intensive nature of the estimation procedure that relies on the optimal minimum distance estimator. randcoef can accommodate up to five rounds of panel data and offers several options, including alternative weight matrices for estimation and inclusion of additional endogenous regressors. We also present postestimation analysis using sample data to facilitate understanding and interpretation of results.
• Michler, J. D. (2018). Money Matters: The Role of Yields and Profits in Agricultural Technology Adoption. American Journal of Agricultural Economics.
• Michler, J. D. (2018). Money Matters: The Role of Yields and Profits in Agricultural Technology Adoption. SSRN Electronic Journal.
• Michler, J. D., & Josephson, A. L. (2018). Beasts in the Field? Ethics in Agricultural and Applied Economics. Food Policy, 79, 1-11.
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  Ongoing changes to research practices and recent media attention to agricultural and applied economics have raised new ethical problems, but also created opportunities for new solutions. In this paper, we discuss ethical issues facing the profession and propose potential ways in which the field can address these issues. We divide our discussion into two topics. First are ethical issues that arise during the collection, management and analysis of data. Second are ethical issues faced by researchers as they formulate, fund, and disseminate their research. We pay special attention to issues of data dredging or p-hacking and potential ethical issues arising from interaction with the media.
• Michler, J. D. (2017). The importance of the savings device in precautionary savings: Empirical evidence from rural Bangladesh. Agricultural Economics (United Kingdom).
• Michler, J. D. (2017). To Specialize or Diversify: Agricultural Diversity and Poverty Dynamics in Ethiopia. World Development.
• Michler, J. D. (2017). Welfare impacts of improved chickpea adoption: A pathway for rural development in Ethiopia?. Food Policy.
• Michler, J. D. (2015). Land Tenure, Tenure Security and Farm Efficiency: Panel Evidence from the Philippines. Journal of Agricultural Economics.

Presentations

• Masters, W., Michler, J. D., Smale, M., & Josephson, A. L. (2019, January). Ethics in Agricultural and Applied Economics. Allied Social Science Annual Meeting. Atlanta, GA: American Economic Association.
• Orr, A., Michler, J. D., & Josephson, A. L. (2018, August). An Industrious Revolution? Changes in the Household Economy of Rural Bangladesh. Agricultural and Applied Economic Association Annual Meeting. Washington, D.C.: Agricultural and Applied Economic Association.
• Orr, A., Michler, J. D., & Josephson, A. L. (2018, Fall). An Industrious Revolution? Changes in the Household Economy of Rural Bangladesh. International Rice Congress. Singapore: International Rice Research Institute, among others: http://ricecongress2018.irri.org/.
• Michler, J. D., & Josephson, A. L. (2015, Summer). “To Specialize or Diversify: Agricultural Diversity and Poverty Dynamics in Ethiopia. International Conference of Agricultural Economists Meeting. Milan, Italy: International Conference of Agricultural Economists.