William T Mishler

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Scholarly Contributions

Books

• Mishler, W. T., Mishler, W., Rose, R., & Munroe, N. (2011). Popular Support for Undemocratic Regimes: The Changing Views of Russians. Cambridge University Press.
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  ;Your Role: Co-Author;Full Citation: Richard Rose, William Mishler and Neil Munro, Popular Support for Undemocratic Regimes: The Changing Views of Russians (Cambridge University Press, August 2011).;Other collaborative: Yes;Specify other collaborative: Faculty members at other universities;
• Rose, R., Mishler, W., & Munro, N. (2011). Popular SUpport for an Undemocratic Regime: The Changing Views of Russians. Cambridge University Press. doi:10.1017/CBO9780511809200.003
• Mishler, W. T., Rose, R., & Munro, N. (2009). Russia Transformed: Developing Popular Support for a New Regime. Cambridge University Press.
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  ;Your Role: Author;Full Citation: Richard Rose, William Mishler and Neil Munro, Russia Transformed: Developing Popular Support for a New Regime (Cambridge University Press, 2007). ;Collaborative with graduate student: Yes;Other collaborative: Yes;Specify other collaborative: ;
• Rose, R., Mishler, W., & Munro, N. (2006). Russia Transformed: Developing Popular SUpport for a New Regime. Cambridge University Press. doi:10.1017/CBO9780511492150.004
• Kornberg, A., Clarke, H. D., & Mishler, W. T. (1982). Representative democracy in the Canadian provinces. Prentice-Hall Canada.

Chapters

• Clarke, H. D., Elliott, E., Stewart, M. C., Whiteley, P., Zuk, G., & Mishler, W. T. (2019). International Developments and Presidential Factors: Political Business Cycles in the United States. In Controversies in Political Economy. Routledge. doi:10.4324/9780429043048-9
• Mishler, W. T., & Rose, R. (2011). "Political Trust and Distrust in Post-Authoritarian Contexts".. ECPR Press.
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  ;Your Role: Co-author;Full Citation: Richard Rose and William Mishler, "Political Trust and Distrust in Post-Authoritarian Contexts". In Sonja Zmerli, and Marc Hooghe, eds., Political Trust: Why Context Matters. ECPR Press, 2011, 117-140.;Other collaborative: Yes;Specify other collaborative: Co authored with faculty at another university;
• Mishler, W. T., & Rose, R. (2009). Bridging the Gap Between the Experience and Percepion of Corruption. Cambridge University Press.
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  ;Your Role: Author;Full Citation: Richard Rose and William Mishler, “Bridging the Gap Between the Experience and Percepion of Corruption,” in Dieter Zinnbauer and Rebecca Dobson, eds., Global Corruption Report, 2008 (Cambridge University Press, 2008);Other collaborative: Yes;Specify other collaborative: ;
• Rose, R., & Mishler, W. T. (1999). Five Years After the Fall: Trajectories of Support for Democracy in Post‐Communist Europe. In Critical Citizens:Global Support for Democratic Governance. Oxford University Press. doi:10.1093/0198295685.003.0004
• Mishler, W. T., Kornberg, A., & Cooper, B. (1988). The resurgence of conservatism in Anglo-American democracies. In The resurgence of conservatism in Anglo-American democracies. Duke University Press.
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  This work presents analyses by experts on the rise of anew tide of conservative governments in the United States, Canada, and Great Britain in an attempt to find what, if any, common ideologies and programs unite them, with what results, in terms of institutional change and policy direction, have been, and what are the prospects for permanent change.
• Alt, J. E., Cooper, B., Kornberg, A., & Mishler, W. T. (1987). New Wine in Old Bottles: The Political Economy of Thatcherism. In The Resurgence of Conservatism in Anglo American Democracies. Duke University Press.

Journals/Publications

• Mishler, W. T. (2018). Master of his Fate: Popular SUpport of. Journal of Communist STudies and Transition Politics, 36.
• Mishler, W. T. (2019). In Memoriam: Professor Allan Kornberg. PS, 3.
• Crisp, B. F., Olivella, S., Potter, J. D., & Mishler, W. (2014). Elections as instruments for punishing bad representatives and selecting good ones. Electoral Studies, 34(34), 1-15. doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2013.08.017
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  Many theories of democracy point out that voters make their choices based on two goals: the retrospective assessment of incumbents and the prospective choice between incumbents and challengers. Do voters react to malfeasance on the part of their elected representatives? If they abandon corrupt incumbents, are they able to select more virtuous replacements? In this paper, we assess the effects of corruption on voter loyalty and, conversely, of voter defection on subsequent malfeasance. We examine these relationships with data drawn from 169 elections across 72 countries. Our results show that malfeasance does indeed provoke voter defection, but that electoral volatility is not followed by lower levels of perceived corruption. We conclude by discussing the appropriate interpretation of our results, the future research they suggest, and their meaning for related, emerging literatures.
• Mishler, W. T., Crisp, B., & Potter, J. (2013). Elections as Instruments for Punnishing Bad Representativesnad Selelcting Good Ones. Electoral STudies.
• Mishler, W. T., Mishler, W., & Rose, R. (2011). "A Supply-Demand Model of Party System Institutionalization: the Russian Case.". Party POlitics.
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  ;Your Role: Co-author;Full Citation: Richard Rose and William Mishler. "A Supply-Demand Model of Party System Institutionalization: the Russian Case." Party Politics, 2011. 16,6, 801-822.;Other collaborative: Yes;Specify other collaborative: Faculty member at other univerity;
• Mishler, W. T., Mishler, W., Loewenberg, G., & Sanborn, H. (2011). Political Support for Parliaments and Regimes in Post-Communist Europe.. European Journal of Political Science, 2(3), 475-494.
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  ;Your Role: Co-Author;Full Citation: " “Political Support for Parliaments and Regimes in Post-Communist Europe.” " (with Gerhard Loewenberg and Howard Sanborn) European Journal of Political Science, 2,3 (2011): 475-494.;Collaborative with graduate student: Yes;Other collaborative: Yes;Specify other collaborative: Grad student and faculty member from another university;
• Loewenberg, G., Mishler, W., & Sanborn, H. (2010). Developing attachments to new political institutions: a multi-level model of attitude formation in post-Communist Europe. European Political Science Review, 2(3), 475-494. doi:10.1017/s1755773910000202
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  In America and Western Europe, legislatures preceded democratization and contributed to the establishment and maintenance of democratic regimes in the late 18th and the 19th centuries. In Central and Eastern Europe in the late 20th and early 21st centuries, legislatures and democratic regimes appeared simultaneously. In the first 15 years of post-Communist transitions in 12 countries, attachments to the new regimes have been influenced by their institutional structures, their economic performance, and their records in protecting human freedom, while attachment to the new parliaments have been predominantly influenced by cultural factors related to early life socialization including education, age, gender, social status, and attitudes toward the former communist regime. Attachment to parliament was a product more than a cause of attachment to the new regimes, but the parliamentary system of government created a context that contributed to citizens’ attachment to their new political institutions. In that respect, attitudes toward parliaments in Central and Eastern Europe played a role similar to the role that these attitudes played in an earlier stage of democratization in Europe and North America, the role of attaching citizens to new political institutions.
• Mishler, W. T. (2010). The Impact of Economic Shock on Popular Support for the Russian Regime.
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  ;Your Role: Co-Author;Full Citation: Richard Rose and William Mishler, "The Impact of Macro-Economic Shock on Popular Support for the Russian Regime", Post-Soviet Affairs, 26,1, 2010. ;Other collaborative: Yes;Specify other collaborative: With Faculty member for another university;
• Mishler, W. T., & Rose, R. (2010). The Experience Vs. The Perception of Corruption: Russia as a Test Case. Global Crime.
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  ;Your Role: Co-Author;Full Citation: William Mishler and Richard Rose, "Experience versus Perception of Corruption: Russia as a Test Case", Global Crime 11, 2, 2010, 145-163;Other collaborative: Yes;Specify other collaborative: Faculty member at other university;
• Mishler, W. T., & Rose, R. (2010). “How do Electors Respond to Unfair Elections? The Experience of Russians,. Post Soviet Affairs.
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  ;Your Role: C0-Author;Full Citation: Richard Rose and William Mishler, “How do Electors Respond to Unfair Elections? The Experience of Russians,” Post-Soviet Affairs 25:2, (April-June 2009), pp. 118-137.;Other collaborative: Yes;Specify other collaborative: With faculty member at another University;
• Mishler, W., & Rose, R. (2010). The Impact of Macro-Economic Shock on Russians. Post-Soviet Affairs, 26(1), 38-57. doi:10.2747/1060-586x.26.1.38
• Rose, R., & Mishler, W. (2010). A supply-demand model of party-system institutionalization: The Russian case:. Party Politics, 16(6), 801-821. doi:10.1177/1354068809346074
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  An accountable democracy requires institutionalized parties. A supply—demand model hypothesizes that institutionalization is a function of four sets of influences: stability in election law, persisting commitments to parties by political elites and by voters, and learning by elites and by voters. The hypotheses are tested with aggregate data from nine nationwide elections in Russia since 1993, in which institutionalization and its complement, volatility, are decomposed. Survey data from the 2007—8 round of Russian elections is then used to test the extent of institutionalization through party identification. Logit analysis shows that the high level of support for President Putin’s new party, United Russia, is based on temporary rather than durable influences. The political elite’s volatile supply of parties has created a ‘floating’ party system and a delegative democracy with implications for new democracies on other continents.
• Mishler, W. T., & Rose, R. (2009). Experience versus perception of corruption: Russia as a test case. Routledge.
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  ;Your Role: Author;Full Citation: Richard Rose and William Mishler. 2010. "Experience versus perception of corruption: Russia as a test case." Global Crime Vol. 11, No. 2, May 2010, 145-163.;
• Mishler, W. T., & Rose, R. (2009). Generation, Age and Time: The Dynamics of Learning During Russia's Transformation,. American Journal of Political Science.
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  ;Your Role: Author;Full Citation: William Mishler and Richard Rose, “Generation, Age and Time: The Dynamics of Learning During Russia's Transformation,” American Journal of Political Science 51:4 (October, 2007), pp. 822-34.;Other collaborative: Yes;Specify other collaborative: ;
• Mishler, W. T., Lazar, O., & Rose, R. (2009). The Evolution of Support for Market Economies in Post-Communist Europe: Has Globalization Helped or Hurt?. Kyoto Journal of Law and Politics.
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  ;Your Role: Author;Full Citation: Orsolya Lazar, William Mishler and Richard Rose, “The Evolution of Support for Market Economies in Post-Communist Europe: Has Globalization Helped or Hurt?” Kyoto Journal of Law and Politics 3(1), 2006.;Collaborative with graduate student: Yes;Other collaborative: Yes;Specify other collaborative: ;
• Mishler, W. T., Rose, R., & Munro, N. (2009). Time Matters: Adapting to Transformation. Journal of Communist and Post- Communist Studies.
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  Also reprinted in Russian by A. Oleinik and O. Gaman-Golutvina,eds.);Your Role: Author;Full Citation: Richard Rose and William Mishler, "Adapting to Post-Communist Transformations", Journal of Communist and Post- Communist Studies, 24, 1, 2008, 90-114. ;Collaborative with graduate student: Yes;Other collaborative: Yes;Specify other collaborative: ;
• Rose, R., & Mishler, W. (2009). How do electors respond to an unfair election?: the experience of Russians. Post-soviet Affairs, 25(2), 118-136. doi:10.2747/1060-586x.24.2.118
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  Was the 2007 Russian Duma election fair? International observers have agreed that it was unfair. Survey data from the 2007 Russian Duma election finds that most Russians disagree with international observers and they also disagree among themselves about the fairness of the Duma ballot. This article tests hypotheses about popular response to that election, accounting for differences in opinion, partisanship, the performance of the government, and individual socio-economic characteristics. The extent to which those who saw the election as unfair are less likely to support the political regime is also tested. The conclusion considers conditions in which perceptions of an unfair election can encourage positive change in a regime or the strengthening of authoritarianism.
• Mishler, W. T., Rose, R., & Munro, N. (2008). Time Matters: Adapting to the Consequences of Transformation. Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics.
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  ;Your Role: Author;Full Citation: Richard Rose, William Mishler and Neil Munroe, “Time Matters: Adapting to the Consequences of Transformation,” Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics 24:1, (March 2008), pp.1-25.;Collaborative with graduate student: Yes;Other collaborative: Yes;Specify other collaborative: ;
• Mishler, W., & Rose, R. (2007). Generation, age, and time: The dynamics of political learning during Russia's transformation. American Journal of Political Science, 51(4), 822-834. doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2007.00283.x
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  When the Soviet Union collapsed, most Russians had lived their entire lives in a quintessentially authoritarian culture. Having been socialized in this environment, how could citizens acquire the attitudes and behaviors necessary to support a new, more pluralistic regime? Cultural theories of political learning emphasize the primacy of childhood socialization and hold that altering initial attitudes is a decades-long process that depends on generational replacement. Institutional theories emphasize adult relearning in response to changing circumstances regardless of socialization. Lifetime learning integrates the competing perspectives. Multilevel models using New Russia Barometer data from 1992 to 2005 confirm the persistence of some generational differences in Russian political attitudes but demonstrate even larger effects resulting from adult relearning. Lifetime learning provides the most comprehensive account and suggests that Russians would quickly acquire the attitudes and behaviors appropriate to democracy—if Russian elites supply more authentic democratic institutions.
• Mishler, W., Peiris, P., & Finkel, S. E. (2007). The 2005 presidential and 2004 parliamentary elections in Sri Lanka. Electoral Studies, 26(1), 205-209. doi:10.1016/j.electstud.2006.03.005
• Mishler, W., & Rose, R. (2005). What Are the Political Consequences of Trust?: A Test of Cultural and Institutional Theories in Russia. Comparative Political Studies, 38(9), 1050-1078. doi:10.1177/0010414005278419
• Schwindt-bayer, L. A., & Mishler, W. (2005). An Integrated Model of Women's Representation. The Journal of Politics, 67(2), 407-428. doi:10.1111/j.1468-2508.2005.00323.x
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  The concept of representation, as developed in Hanna Pitkin's seminal work, is a complex structure, whose multiple dimensions are hypothesized to be closely interconnected. Most empirical work, however, ignores the integrated character of representation and examines its several dimensions in isolation. The picture of representation that results is not so much incorrect as incomplete. This research tests an integrated model of representation linking formal, descriptive, substantive, and symbolic representation. Data on the representation of women in 31 democracies confirms the interconnections among the several dimensions of representation. The structure of electoral systems exerts powerful influences on both women's descriptive representation and symbolic representation. Descriptive representation, in turn, increases legislatures’ responsiveness to women's policy concerns and enhances perceptions of legitimacy. The effects of substantive representation, however, are much less than theory anticipates.
• Rose, R., Munro, N., & Mishler, W. (2004). Resigned Acceptance of an Incomplete Democracy: Russia's Political Equilibrium. Post-soviet Affairs, 20(3), 195-218. doi:10.2747/1060-586x.20.3.195
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  To advance understanding of the present-day Russian regime, three political scientists set out a model of political authority in democratic and undemocratic regimes. New Russia Barometer surveys, especially a post-presidential election survey in March 2004, are used to document the amount of resigned acceptance of the Putin regime. The article reviews alternative hypotheses about why people may differ in their view of authority and tests the hypotheses statistically. The authors then consider circumstances, both economic and political, that might upset this equilibrium.
• Campbell, J. E., & Mishler, W. (2003). NSF Funding Unbiased, Necessary for Political Science. PS Political Science & Politics, 36(02), 147-149. doi:10.1017/s1049096503001963
• Campbell, J. E., Mishler, W., Canon, B. C., Gabel, M., & Patton, D. J. (2003). NSF funding unbiased, necessary for political science [2] (multiple letters). PS Political Science & Politics, 36(2), 147-150.
• Mishler, W., & Willerton, J. P. (2003). The Dynamics of Presidential Popularity in Post-Communist Russia: Cultural Imperative versus Neo-Institutional Choice?. The Journal of Politics, 65(1), 111-141. doi:10.1111/1468-2508.t01-1-00006
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  Public support for Presidents Boris Yeltsin and Vladimir Putin has fluctuated significantly over Russia's first post-Soviet decade. Cultural explanations for these dynamics emphasize the country's authoritarian culture and Russian preferences for strong and decisive leaders. Neo-institutional theories attribute the dynamics to citizens’ everyday evaluations of presidential performance as the government succeeds or fails in meeting citizens’ needs and demands. This article tests competing cultural and neo-institutional theories of presidential popularity in Russia during the Yeltsin and early Putin years (1991–2000). We develop and estimate a series of political support models of Russian presidential approval. Although we find substantial support for elements of both cultural and neo-institutional theories of presidential popularity, institutional theories perform substantially better in accounting for fluctuations in Yeltsin's and Putin's popularity.
• Mishler, W. (2002). Eric Uslaner, The Moral Foundations of Trust . New York: Cambridge University Press, 2002. 298 pages, hardback and paperback. Journal of Public Policy, 22(03), 349-355. doi:10.1017/s0143814x02232043
• Mishler, W., & Rose, R. (2002). Learning and re-learning regime support: The dynamics of post-communist regimes. European Journal of Political Research, 41(1), 5-36. doi:10.1111/1475-6765.00002
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  Abstract. The political support of citizens of new democracies reflects two sets of experiences. Initially, people are socialized into an undemocratic regime; then, they must re-learn political support in relation to a new regime. In an established democracy, it is difficult to disentangle the effect of early socialization and current performance because both refer to the same regime. However, this is both possible and necessary in countries where there has been a change in regime. Critical questions then arise: When, whether and how do citizens determine their support for their new regime? At the start of a new regime past socialization should be more important but, after a few years, current performance should become more important. We draw on 47 Barometer surveys between 1991 and 1998 in ten more or less democratic post-communist regimes of Central and Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union to test the relative importance of early socialization influences, the legacy of the communist past, and the political and economic performance of new regimes. We find that economic and political performance explains the most variance in support and, secondarily, the communist legacy. Early socialization is insignificant. However, contrary to economic theories of voting, the impact of political performance is greater than the impact of economic performance in post-communist countries – and its impact is increasing.
• Rose, R., & Mishler, W. (2002). Comparing Regime Support in Non-democratic and Democratic Countries. Democratization, 9(2), 1-20. doi:10.1080/714000253
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  A measure of popular support can be found in states with many different kinds of regimes, some democratic and some not, a point often overlooked by theories that concentrate exclusively on democratization. This article sets out nine hypotheses about how different social, economic and political contexts may influence regime support. The World Values Survey provides data about regime support in 36 countries in Europe, North America, South America, Africa, Asia and India. The countries vary substantially in many ways, including whether or not they hold free elections and whether or not they apply the rule of law or are corrupt. Three influences on cross-national support are statistically significant: the extent to which the regime follows the rule of law; there are free and fair elections; and the economy maintains a high standard of living. The most important is the rule of law. The conclusion considers implications for new democracies, where free elections have often been introduced before the establishmen...
• Mishler, W., & Rose, R. (2001). Political Support for Incomplete Democracies: Realist vs. Idealist Theories and Measures. International Political Science Review, 22(4), 303-320. doi:10.1177/0192512101022004002
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  Democratic regimes depend for their survival and effective functioning on the public's willing acquiescence and support; however, the measurement of support is problematic. The failure to appreciate the difference between established democracies and new regimes that may (or may not) be in the process of democratizing has prompted scholars to mismeasure support by relying on idealist measures. We propose a realist conception of political support and realist measures. We test these measures with data from the 1995-97 World Values Surveys, comparing their ability to describe and explain variations in support for both old and new regimes. Realist measures perform substantially better in all contexts and in ways that suggest the rationality of realist support.
• Mishler, W., & Rose, R. (2001). What Are the Origins of Political Trust?: Testing Institutional and Cultural Theories in Post-communist Societies. Comparative Political Studies, 34(1), 30-62. doi:10.1177/0010414001034001002
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  Popular trust in political institutions is vital to democracy, but in post-Communist countries, popular distrust for institutions is widespread, and prospects for generating increased political trust are uncertain given disagreements over its origins. Cultural theories emphasizing exogenous determinants of trust compete with institutional theories emphasizing endogenous influences, and both can be further differentiated into micro and macro variants. Competing hypotheses drawn from these theories are tested using data from 10 post-Communist countries in Eastern and Central Europe and the former Soviet Union. Aggregate data on economic and political performance are combined with survey data on interpersonal and political trust, political socialization experiences, and individual evaluations of national performance. Results strongly support the superiority of institutional explanations of the origins of political trust, especially micro-level explanations, while providing little support for either micro-cul...
• Lane, D., Rose, R., Mishler, W., & Haerpfer, C. (2000). Democracy and Its Alternatives: Understanding Post-Communist Societies. Contemporary Sociology, 29(4), 658. doi:10.2307/2654590
• Rose, R., & Mishler, W. (1998). Negative and positive party identification in post-Communist countries. Electoral Studies, 17(2), 217-234. doi:10.1016/s0261-3794(98)00016-x
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  Abstract To understand party identification in post-communist Central and Eastern Europe, we need to give equal attention to negative partisanship—the identification of a party that an individual would never vote for—as well as positive party identification. Our institutionalist approach posits that in a one-party state the Party will be distrusted, and socialization will encourage people to form a negative party identification. Survey data from 1995 in Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovenia show 77 per cent have a negative identification and only 30 per cent are positive; this produces a fourfold typology of open, closed, apathetic and negative partisans. Discriminant function analysis is used to identify political, economic and social structure influences on this typology of partisanship. Negative partisanship is then distinguished between the rejection of ideologically polarizing parties, whether Communist, right-wing, reformist or religious, or the rejection of parties appealing exclusively to a limited segment of the electorate, such as a minority ethnic group. Discriminant function analysis identifies leading influences on the reaction against particular types of parties. The conclusion considers whether post-Communist citizens are more likely to move from negative to positive partisanship or become knowledgeable sceptics, and concludes that the development of knowledgeable scepticism is more likely.
• Mishler, W., & Rose, R. (1997). Trust, Distrust and Skepticism: Popular Evaluations of Civil and Political Institutions in Post-Communist Societies. The Journal of Politics, 59(2), 418-451. doi:10.1017/s0022381600053512
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  Popular trust in social and political institutions is vital to the consolidation of democracy, but in post-Communist Europe, distrust is the predicted legacy of Communist rule Contrary to expectations, however, New Democracies Barometer surveys of popular trust in fifteen institutions across nine Eastern and Central European countries indicate that skepticism, rather than distrust, predominates Although trust varies across institutions and countries, citizens trust holistically, evaluating institutions along a single dimension. Both early life socialization experiences and contemporary performance evaluations influence levels of trust. The legacy of socialization under Communism has mostly indirect effects, whereas the effects of economic and political performance evaluations on trust are larger and more direct Thus, skepticism reflects trade-offs between public dissatisfaction with current economic performance, optimism about future economic performance, and satisfaction with the political performance of...
• Rose, R., Mishler, W., & Haerpfer, C. (1997). Social capital in civic and stressful societies. Studies in Comparative International Development, 32(3), 85-111. doi:10.1007/bf02687332
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  This article examines social capital with particular reference to societies where distrust of institutions has been the norm. The first section describes alternative relationships between individuals and institutions in civil and uncivil societies. The second makes clear the important distinction betweensocial network capital andorganizational capital. The former can be used to achieve freedom from the state; the latter implies a trustworthy state. The third section presents empirical survey data from the New Democracies Barometer in nine post-Communist societies; the data measure trust, scepticism and distrust in fifteen institutions. The following sections use multivariate analysis to account for differences in individual levels of trust, and discuss the implications for theories of civic democracy.
• Rose, R., Tikhomirov, E., & Mishler, W. (1997). Understanding multi‐party choice: The 1995 Duma election. Europe-Asia Studies, 49(5), 799-823. doi:10.1080/09668139708412474
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  (1997). Understanding multi‐party choice: The 1995 Duma election. Europe-Asia Studies: Vol. 49, No. 5, pp. 799-823.
• Mishler, W., & Rose, R. (1996). Trajectories of Fear and Hope: Support for Democracy in Post-Communist Europe. Comparative Political Studies, 28(4), 553-581. doi:10.1177/0010414096028004003
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  Prospects for the successful consolidation of democracy in post-Communist Europe hinge substantially on the trajectory and determinants of popular support. Surveys in Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Hung...
• Mishler, W., & Sheehan, R. S. (1996). Public Opinion, the Attitudinal Model, and Supreme Court Decision Making: A Micro-Analytic Perspective. The Journal of Politics, 58(1), 169-200. doi:10.2307/2960354
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  Recent aggregate-level research on the United States Supreme Court suggests that shifting tides of public opinion can have important effects on Supreme Court decisions. Moreover, these effects can be both direct (i.e., unmediated by other institutions) and indirect (i.e., mediated through presidential elections and subsequent judicial appointments). This research extends this inquiry by examining the influence of public opinion on individual members of the Supreme Court during the period 1953-1992. Although the majority of justices during this period show little or no evidence of public opinion effects, a significant minority of justices show substantial effects. As predicted by social psychological theories, the impact of public opinion is greatest among moderate justices who are likely to hold critical swing positions on the Court. The effects of public opinion are in addition to significant agenda effects and suggest important refinements in the standard attitudinal model of judicial decision making.
• Rose, R., & Mishler, W. (1996). Representation and leadership in post‐communist political systems. Journal of Communist Studies and Transition Politics, 12(2), 224-246. doi:10.1080/13523279608415310
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  Ideally, a democratic system is representative and has effective leaders. But in post‐communist political systems it is an open question whether leadership and representation are mutually supportive or in conflict. Survey data from the New Democracies Barometer, used to analyse the priority that people in nine Central and East European countries give to representation in parliament and to strong leaders, allow a distinction to be made between representative democrats and leadership democrats, and to distinguish both from authoritarians who value strong leadership without parliament and those disaffected with both. A discriminant function analysis shows that political attitudes towards democracy and markets and towards order and economic security are most important in determining views of governance. National differences are indirectly significant, inasmuch as views of individuals about leadership vary with national context. Where there has been a history of repressive dictatorship, people are more likely ...
• Rose, R., & Mishler, W. (1996). Testing the Churchill Hypothesis: Popular Support for Democracy and its Alternatives*. Journal of Public Policy, 16(1), 29-58. doi:10.1017/s0143814x00007856
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  Whereas many studies of democratization evaluate it in idealist terms, Winston Churchill offered a relativist criterion, democracy being a lesser evil compared to other types of regime. Since everyone in a post-Communist society has lived in at least two different regimes, the New Democracies Barometer survey of post-Communist countries can ask people to evaluate five alternative regimes: a return to Communist rule, the army taking over, monarchy, rule by a strong leader, and decision making by economic experts. Factor analysis shows endorsement of three alternatives - the return to Communism, army rule, and personal dictatorship - form an authoritarianism scale. It also shows support for authoritarian rule is confined to a minority. Five hypotheses are tested to see what accounts for this. The political legacy of the past is more important than current government performance, economic attitudes, social structure differences, and national culture and traditions. Endorsement of economic technocrats making decisions is not related to authoritarianism; it reflects some national differences. Given the importance of experiencing both democratic and undemocratic regimes, the Churchill hypothesis does not apply in a country that has not yet attempted to introduce democratic institutions.
• Mishler, W. (1995). Parliaments in the Modern World: Changing Institutions . By Gary W. Copeland and Samuel C. Patterson. (Ann Arbor, MI: University of Michigan Press, 1994. Pp. xii, 180. $42.50 cloth, $17.95 paper.) Democratic Legislative Institutions: A Comparative View . By David M. Olson. (Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 1994. Pp. xvi, 184. $47.50 hard, $19.95 paper.). The Journal of Politics, 57(04), 1216-1219. doi:10.2307/2960427
• Mishler, W., & Rose, R. (1994). Support for Parliaments and Regimes in the Transition toward Democracy in Eastern Europe. Legislative Studies Quarterly, 19(1), 5. doi:10.2307/439797
• Norpoth, H., Segal, J. A., Mishler, W., & Sheehan, R. S. (1994). Popular influence on supreme court decisions. American Political Science Review, 88(3), 711-724. doi:10.2307/2944805
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  In their 1993 article in this Review, William Mishler and Reginald Sheehan reported evidence of both direct and indirect impacts of public opinion on Supreme Court decisions. Helmut Norpoth and Jeffrey Segal offer a methodological critique and in their own reanalysis of the data find, contrary to Mishler and Sheehan, no evidence for a direct path of influence from public opinion to Court decisions. Instead, they find an abrupt-permanent shift of judicial behavior consistent with an indirect model of influence whereby popularly elected presidents, through new appointments, affect the ideological complexion of the Court. In response, Mishler and Sheehan defend the direct public opinion linkage originally noted, at both individual and aggregate level; respond to the methodological critique; and offer further statistical analysis to support the aggregate linkages.
• Rose, R., & Mishler, W. T. (1994). Mass Reaction to Regime Change in Eastern Europe: Polarization or Leaders and Laggards?. British Journal of Political Science, 24(2), 159-182. doi:10.1017/s0007123400009777
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  Regime changes occur at two levels, the macro and the micro. In Eastern Europe there has been holistic change at the regime level, but at the micro level individuals can differ in their reactions, some favouring the new and some preferring the old regime, thus creating aggregates of supporters and opponents of the new regime. Combining reactions to the old and new regimes results in a typology of democrats, reactionaries, sceptics and the compliant. Nationwide surveys in Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Poland and Romania show that democrats overall are a bare majority of the respondents. If current divisions persist, then East Europeans will be politically polarized. Statistical tests of the influence of social structure and economic attitudes upon individual responses to regime change emphasize the importance of sociotropic economic assessments. But the data also show that most who do not currently support the pluralist regime expect to do so in the foreseeable future; they are laggards rather than anti-democrats. Moreover, the level of future support is so high that it is likely to be proof against fluctuations in the economic conditions of the new regimes.
• Mishler, W., & Sheehan, R. S. (1993). THE SUPREME COURT AS A COUNTERMAJORITARIAN INSTITUTION? THE IMPACT OF PUBLIC OPINION ON SUPREME COURT DECISIONS. American Political Science Review, 87(1), 87-101. doi:10.2307/2938958
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  Although normative questions about the role of the Supreme Court as a countermajoritarian institution have long excited controversy in democratic theory, empirical questions about how far the Court acts contrary to majoritarian opinion have received less attention. Time series analyses for the period 1956–89 indicate the existence of a reciprocal and positive relationship between long-term trends in aggregate public opinion and the Court's collective decisions. The Court's ideological composition changes in response to previous shifts in the partisan and ideological orientation of the president and Congress. The Court also responds to public opinion at the margins even in the absence of membership change. Since 1981, the relationship has vanished or turned negative in direction. The Court's ideological balance has been upset by an unbroken string of conservative-to-moderate appointments, thereby undermining the dynamics that promote judicial responsiveness and raising questions about the majoritarianism of the contemporary and future Court.
• Mishler, W. (1992). The Collapse of Canada? Edited by R. Kent Weaver, Washington Brookings Institution, 1992. Pp. x, 186. $28.95 cloth, $11.95 paper.. Journal of Public Policy, 12(03), 298-300. doi:10.1017/s0143814x00005791
• Sheehan, R. S., Mishler, W., & Songer, D. R. (1992). Ideology, Status, and The Differential Success of Direct Parties Before the Supreme Court. American Political Science Review, 86(2), 464-471. doi:10.2307/1964234
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  A substantial literature on lower federal courts and state courts suggests that the "haves" usually come out ahead in litigation because they possess superior resources for it and they reap advantages from their repeat player status. We investigate the success of 10 categories of litigants before the Warren, Burger, and Rehnquist Courts to determine whether the resources or experience of litigants has effects on Supreme Court outcomes paralleling those found in the courts below. While different categories of litigants are found to have very different rates of success, those differences do not consistently favor litigants with greater resources. A time series analysis of the success of different categories of litigants over the 36 years studied suggests that the changing ideological complexion of the Court has a greater impact on the success of litigants than differences among litigants in resources and experience. W e examine the impact of litigant status and the changing ideology of the U.S. Supreme Court on differences in the success rates of direct parties before the Court. Simply, we seek to explain why some categories of litigants win more frequently than others when appearing before the Court. Previous explanations have attributed differential success rates in lower federal courts to, inter alia, disparities between litigants of different status in judicial experience and resources. We argue, however, that differential success rates in Supreme Court decisions have more to do with the ideological composition of the Court and the Court's receptivity to the different types of legal claims made by litigants of different status. Previous research indicates that the status of litigants before American courts has substantial influence on judicial outcomes. Higher-status parties enjoy significant advantages in appellate courts and usually win. This has been demonstrated in the U.S. courts of appeals (Sheehan and Songer 1989) and, to a lesser degree, in state supreme courts (Wheeler et al. 1987). Curiously, the impact of litigant status on
• Mishler, W. (1991). Continental Divide: The Values and Institutions of the United States and Canada . By Seymour Martin Lipset. (New York: Routledge, Chapman and Hall, 1990. Pp. xi, 337. $29.95 cloth.). The Journal of Politics, 53(01), 272-274. doi:10.2307/2131749
• Clarke, H. D., Mishler, W., & Whiteley, P. (1990). Recapturing The Falklands: Models of Conservative Popularity, 1979–83. British Journal of Political Science, 20(1), 63-81. doi:10.1017/s0007123400005706
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  Recently, Sanders et al. have made the intriguing and counter-intuitive argument that the impact of the Falklands war on Conservative popularity was inconsequential. Their analyses raise important theoretical and methodological issues concerning the time-series analysis of party support. This present article contends that the stepwise regression procedures employed by Sanders et al. are misleading, particularly when predictor variables are highly intercorrelated. Box-Jenkins analyses demonstrate that the Falklands strongly influenced Conservative support, net of the effects of macroeconomic conditions and personal economic expectations. The significance of the latter variable in the models confirms Sanders et al. 's argument about the role of subjective economic variables in party popularity functions. Non-economic variables are also relevant, however, and popularity functions that model them correctly will enhance our understanding of both the economics and the politics of party support.
• Mishler, W., Hoskin, M., & Fitzgerald, R. (1989). British Parties in the Balance: A Time-Series Analysis of Long-Term Trends in Labour and Conservative Support. British Journal of Political Science, 19(2), 211-236. doi:10.1017/s0007123400005445
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  The electoral domination of the Conservative party during the past decade has been interpreted by many as evidence of a long-term shift in the balance of public support from Labour to the Conservatives. This article argues that such a shift has not occurred. Rather, the stability apparent in recent election results disguises considerable underlying volatility. The balance of public support between the major parties continues to be highly unstable and subject to large and precipitous fluctuations in response to relatively small economic changes and ordinary political events. Recent Conservative victories appear to be the results more of good timing and luck than of any fundamental, long-term dynamic in British politics.
• Mishler, W. (1984). Trends in Political Science Funding at the National Science Foundation, 1980–1984. PS Political Science & Politics, 17(04), 846-857. doi:10.1017/s1049096500025282
• Mishler, W., & Hildreth, A. (1984). Legislatures and Political Stability: An Exploratory Analysis. The Journal of Politics, 46(1), 25-59. doi:10.2307/2130433
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  Although most legislatures do not play significant roles in the lawmaking, policy, or resource allocation processes, their durability and resilience as institutions are widely assumed to be consequences of the contributions they make to the maintenance of political order and stability. Even token legislatures and those dominated by authoritarian regimes frequently are credited with promoting stability by providing forums for symbolic representation and ritualistic dissent. However, analyses of the relationships among legislature structure, political stability, and the legislative environment across more than 100 countries demonstrate that the capacities of legislatures to promote stability are strictly limited, hinge substantially upon their representativeness and effectiveness in policymaking and resource allocation, and are easily overwhelmed where societal cleavages are severe, resources are limited, or complementary democratic institutions are lacking. Genuinely effective and responsive legislatures e...
• Hoskin, M., & Mishler, W. (1983). Public opinion toward new migrants: a comparative.. International migration (Geneva, Switzerland), 21(4), 440-62. doi:10.1111/j.1468-2435.1983.tb00979.x
• Mishler, W. (1983). Scotching Nationalism in the British Parliament: Crosscutting Cleavages among MPs. Legislative Studies Quarterly, 8(1), 5. doi:10.2307/439468
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  Shifting electoral currents of Scottish nationalism over the past two decades have had profound effects on the structure of parliamentary party alignments and the representation of Scottish interests in the British House of Commons. During the 1970s the politicization of Scottish nationalism undercut traditional party loyalties producing an essentially four-party system based on crosscutting class and national cleavages. Although the defeat of the devolution referendum and of all but two of the Scottish nationalist MPs halted the nationalist realignment in parliament, substantial misalignment continues within the class-based; Labour and Conservative parties. This insures the continued representation of Scottish interests in Parliament while increasing the likelihood of intra-party rebellion and backbench dissent.
• Mezey, M. L., Aydelotte, W. O., Palma, G. D., Dodd, L. C., Kornberg, A., Mishler, W., Schwarz, J. E., & Shaw, L. E. (1978). Legislatures in Western Democracies: A Review Article@@@The History of Parliamentary Behavior@@@Surviving without Governing: The Italian Parties in Parliament@@@Coalitions in Parliamentary Government@@@Influence in Parliament: Canada@@@The United States Congress in Comparative Perspective. Legislative Studies Quarterly, 3(2), 335. doi:10.2307/439535
• Mishler, W. (1978). Nominating Attractive Candidates for Parliament: Recruitment to the Canadian House of Commons. Legislative Studies Quarterly, 3(4), 581. doi:10.2307/439616
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  This article examines the process by which potential candidates are identified and nominated to stand for election to the Canadian House of Commons. Interviews with 189 individuals who survived the process to become members of the 28th Parliament are used to identify several of the more important personal and political background characteristics that bring prospective candidates to the attention of local party organizations and make them attractive nominees for parliament. Prior service to the party, previous electoral experience, and exceptionally high social status rank among the principal attributes of attractiveness. Candidates who possess several of these traits are more likely not only to be nominated for parliament and to receive the nomination with minimal opposition but also to be nominated in electorally safe, or at least winnable, constituencies.
• Mishler, W., & Campbell, D. B. (1978). The healthy state. Legislative responsiveness to public health care needs in Canada, 1920-1970.. Comparative politics, 10(4), 479-497. doi:10.2307/421568
• Mishler, W., & Mughan, A. (1978). Representing the Celtic Fringe: Devolution and Legislative Behavior in Scotland and Wales. Legislative Studies Quarterly, 3(3), 377. doi:10.2307/439450
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  This study examines the social and political backgrounds, legislative role perceptions, and parliamentary activities of sixty-nine Scottish and Welsh members of the British House of Commons. Because legislative attitudes and behavior are linked to various structural features of parliament likely to be altered if proposals to devolve substantial powers to elected assemblies in Scotland and Wales are implemented, devolution would effect fundamental changes in current patterns of Scottish and Welsh representation. Comparisons of the backgrounds, attitudes, and behavior of those MPs who intend to leave parliament after devolution with those who hope to remain indicate that devolution would reduce support for nationalist issues in parliament, reinforce social class divisions, increase the concentration of Burkean-style representatives and party loyalists, expand the scope but reduce the extent of Scottish and Welsh participation in parliament, and provoke the exodus of the most active and talented Scottish and Welsh MPs.
• Falcone, D., & Mishler, W. (1977). Legislative Determinants of Provincial Health Policy in Canada: A Diachronic Analysis. The Journal of Politics, 39(2), 345-367. doi:10.2307/2130055
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  1 For a nearly exhaustive summary of the major cross-sectional studies conducted by political scientists, see Thomas Dye, Understanding Public Policy, 2nd edition (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1975). The longitudinal and "economics" literature is discussed in a Canadian context by Richard Bird, The Growth of Government Expenditure in Canada (Toronto: Canadian Tax Foundation, 1970). A more general review of the literature as it applies to Canada can be found in David J. Falcone and Michael Whittington, "Output Change in Canada," paper presented at the 1972 annual meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, Montreal, P.Q. The latter does not cover at least three studies that have compared Canadian provinces using a paradigm similar to that unifying research on American states. These are Dale Poole, "Canadian Provincial and American State Policy," paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Canadian Political Science Association, Montreal, P.Q., June 1972; J. B. Hogan, "Social Structure and Public Policy," Comparative Politics 4 (July 1972,) 477-509; and William Chandler, "Party Systems and Public Policy in the Canadian Provinces," paper presented at the Forty-Sixth Annual Convention of the Southern Political Science Association, New Orleans, November 1974.
• Kornberg, A., Mishler, W., & Smith, J. (1975). Political Elite and Mass Perceptions of Party Locations in Issue Space: Some Tests of Two Positions. British Journal of Political Science, 5(2), 161-185. doi:10.1017/s0007123400008127
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  Our analyses have enabled us to test several important theoretical propositions advanced by two outstanding scholars, Anthony Downs and Donald E. Stokes. Our data do not support the Downsian position that it is possible to array parties along a single left-right continuum. The factor analyses suggested that a left-right factor underlies the perceptions some individuals have of the positions Canadian parties take on some specific issues. However, the left-right factor that emerged from the analyses was not always what conventional wisdom supposed it to be, with the NDP on the left, the Liberals to the left of center, the Conservatives to the right of center and Social Credit on the right.39 Nor was it in accord with the structuring of parties that places the NDP on the far left, both the Liberals and the Conservatives in the same right-of-center position and Social Credit on the far right.40 Moreover, the left-right factor most often underlies the perceptions of MPs. To a lesser extent it underlies the images of the upper stratum of the public. It least often underlies the perceptions of average Vancouver and Winnipeg citizens.
• Mishler, W., Kornberg, A., Lindquist, D. P., & Smith, J. (1974). Patterns of Political Socialization: Simulating the Development of Party Identification in Two Political Elites. Comparative Political Studies, 6(4), 399-430. doi:10.1177/001041407400600401
• Kornberg, A., Mishler, W., Smith, J., Naylor, T. H., & Clarke, H. D. (1972). Socializing Political Party Officials: A Simulation Experiment. Simulation & Gaming, 3(4), 379-406. doi:10.1177/104687817200300401

Presentations

• Mishler, W. T. (2022, March). The Dynamic's of President Putin's Domestic Popularity: The Effects or War and Foreign Sanctions." Undwer revision to be submitted to a journal. Panel on Popular Support for Authoritarian Rule, Woodrow Wilson Center MNarch 2022. Woodrow Wilison Center, Washington, D.C..
• Mishler, W. T. (2018, April 22-24). The Dynamics of Political Trust in East/Central Europe. Conference on Multiculturalism in Europe. University of Texas - Austin Texas: Center for European Studies and Department of Government.
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  Presented a working paper on the Dynamics of Political Trust in East Central Europe. Also served as the primary discussant on Amy Liu's working paper on Linguistic Networks and Migrant's Trust in Government: Evidence from Romania.
• Mishler, W. T. (2018, October). Contextual Influences on of Human Trafficking: Survey Evidence from Guatamala, Morocco, the Phillipines, Nepal and the Republic of Georgia.. Report prepared and delievered to the Center of Democracy, Human Rights and Governance. Washington DC: USAID.
• Mishler, W. T. (2019, January). Why do Good People SUpport Bad Leaders. Southern Political Science Association Meeting, January 2019, Austin Texas. Austin Texas: SPSA.
• Mishler, W. T. (2016, February). Master of His Fate: Re-examining the Dynamics of Popular Support for President Putin.. Conference on Russian Public Opinion. Washington DC: George Washing University and NSF.