Dmitriy Nurullayev

Interests

Research

Aspiring Powers; BRICS; U.S.-China-Russia Relations; Russo-Ukrainian War.

Courses

Scholarly Contributions

Journals/Publications

• Nurullayev, D., Xu, P., & Garand, J. (2024). COVID, elite rhetoric, and Americans’ attitudes toward U.S. trade practices with China. Social Science Quarterly. doi:10.1111/ssqu.13467
  More info

  Objectives: In this article, we consider how the COVID-19 pandemic and evaluations of Donald Trump combined to influence Americans' attitudes toward U.S. trade practices with China. We suggest that psychological factors—such as confirmation bias and transfer of grievances—influence how individuals evaluate the costs and benefits of trade. Specifically, we argue that the severity of the pandemic (reflected by both cumulative deaths and news coverage of the pandemic) and the rhetoric of (then) President Trump came together to influence Americans’ attitudes toward trade with China. Methods: To assess the COVID effect, the Trump effect, and their interaction effect on trade opinion, we merge data from 39 waves of the weekly Nationscape surveys, conducted from October 2019 to July 2020 (N = 62,171), with data on weekly COVID coverage for nine national news sources and cumulative state-level weekly data on COVID-related deaths. We estimate our models using hierarchical ordered logit. Results: Our findings suggest that COVID-related news coverage, cumulative COVID deaths, and Americans’ favorability toward Donald Trump have strong positive effects on Americans' support for trade tariffs on Chinese imports. Further, we find that the effects of COVID deaths on attitudes toward China tariffs are moderated by Trump favorability, with the effect of COVID deaths significantly stronger among Trump favorables. Conclusion: The COVID pandemic and evaluations of Donald Trump worked both independently and together to shape Americans’ attitudes toward China tariffs.
• Nurullayev, D., & Papa, M. (2023).

  Bloc Politics at the UN: How Other States Behave When the United States and China–Russia Disagree

  . Global Studies Quarterly, 3(3). doi:10.1093/isagsq/ksad034
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  China and Russia have been progressively deepening their partnership in global governance to achieve common goals. However, do other states share their policy positions? Existing scholarship addresses the dyadic affinity among major powers and the growing importance of rising power groups, but it does not examine how the policy positions of other states align with those of the United States and its major rivals: China and Russia. To investigate how states align with the positions of these major powers, we examine voting patterns in the UN General Assembly over a 30-year period from 1991 to 2020. By utilizing simple t-tests and estimating both OLS and LOGIT models (N = 219,625), we find that the Sino–Russian positions enjoy much broader global support than those of the United States. Additionally, states that belong to the Group of 77 (G-77) and soft-balancing institutions such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) are more likely to align with China and Russia than states that do not belong to these groups. Conversely, members of NATO are more likely to side with the United States than their non-NATO counterparts. Further, the findings suggest that the effect of states’ membership in soft-balancing institutions on their propensity to align with China and Russia has steadily increased over time. Meanwhile, the effect of states’ membership in NATO on their likelihood to align with the United States lacks a clear temporal trajectory.
• Nurullayev, D., Kerr, S., & Knudson, M. (2023). How States Provoke Adversaries to Solicit Information
  . International Journal of Security Studies & Practice, 3 (1)(6).
• Lukinovich, H., Nurullayev, D., & Garand, J. (2020). Trade‐Induced Job Loss and Support for Free Trade. Social Science Quarterly, 101(5).
• Nurullayev, D. (2018). Art of Economic Statecraft: When Pain Matters. Journal of Military and Strategic Studies, 19(1).

Presentations

• Nurullayev, D. (2024). Aspiring Powers, Global Affinity, and Alternative International Order. Department of Political Science, University of São Paulo. São Paulo, Brazil.
• Nurullayev, D., & Galambos, K. (2024). Chinese BRI Strategy and American Global Hierarchy. Department of Government, University of Texas. Austin, Texas.
• Nurullayev, D., & Galombos, K. (2024). Chinese Financial Revisionism and American Hierarchy. Peace Science Society (International). Ann Arbor, Michigan.
• Nurullayev, D., & Tirone, D. (2024). Inflating the Cost of War: Domestic Price Changes and Conflict Termination. Western Political Science Association Annual Meeting. Vancouver, Canada.
• Nurullayev, D., & Tirone, D. (2024). Sanctions, Domestic Inflation Hikes, and Conflict Termination. Southern Political Science Association Annual Meeting. New Orleans, Louisiana.
• Nurullayev, D., & Wedel, G. (2024). The Strategy of Signaling Ambiguity: BRICS, Hedging, and State Motives to Join Informal IOs. American Political Association Annual meeting. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.
• Nurullayev, D., Lacour, J., & Carroll, E. (2023). Zelensky's Social Media Diplomacy in the First Year of the Russo-Ukrainian War. International Political Science Association World Congress. Buenos Aires, Argentina.
• Nurullayev, D., Xu, P., & Garand, J. (2023). Americans' Attitudes Towards U.S. Trade  Practices with China in the COVID Era. Midwest Political Science Association Annual Conference. Chicago, IL.
• Nurullayev, D., & Papa, M. (2022). The New Block Politics at the UN: How Other States Behave When United States and China-Russia Disagree. Rising Power Coalitions: Reimagining Global Governance?. Boston, MA: The Fletcher School, Tufts University.
• Nurullayev, D., Kerr, S., & Knudson, M. (2022). Diversionary Signals of Resolve in International Conflict Bargaining. American Political Science Association Annual Meeting. Montreal, Canada.