Jianjun Yin

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• Yin, J. (2023). Exploring the non-stationarity of coastal sea level probability distributions. Environmental Data Science, 2(e16). doi:10.1017/eds.2023.10
• Yin, J. (2023). Rapid Decadal Acceleration of Sea Level Rise along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts during 2010-2022 and Its Impact on Hurricane-Induced Storm Surge. Journal of Climate, 36, 4511–4529. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0670.1
• Yin, J. (2021). A mechanistic analysis of tropical Pacific dynamic sea level in GFDL-OM4 under OMIP-I and OMIP-II forcings. Geoscientific Model Development.
• Yin, J. (2021). Influence of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on the U.S. extreme cold weather. Communications Earth & Environment.
• Yao, Y., Wang, J., Yin, J., & Zou, X. (2020). Marine heatwaves in China's marginal seas and adjacent offshore waters: past, present, and future. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, e2019JC015801.
• Yin, J., Griffies, S. M., Winton, M., Zhao, M., & Zanna, L. (2020). Response of storm-related extreme sea level along the US Atlantic coast to combined weather and climate forcing. Journal of Climate.
• Hsu, C., & Yin, J. (2019). How likely is an El Nino to break the global mean surface temperature record during the 21st century?. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 14(9).
• Wang, Y., Liu, H., Lin, P., & Yin, J. (2019). Record-low coastal sea levels in the Northeast Pacific during the winter of 2013-2014. SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, 9.
• Yin, J., Overpeck, J., Peyser, C., & Stouffer, R. (2018). Big Jump of Record Warm Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2014-2016 Related to Unusually Large Oceanic Heat Releases. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 45(2), 1069-1078.
• Goddard, P. B., Dufour, C. O., Yin, J., Griffies, S. M., & Winton, M. (2017). CO2-Induced Ocean Warming of the Antarctic Continental Shelf in an Eddying Global Climate Model. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, 122(10), 8079-8101.
• Peyser, C. E., & Yin, J. (2017). Interannual and Decadal Variability in Tropical Pacific Sea Level. WATER, 9(6).
• Bakker, P., Schmittner, A., Lenaerts, J., Abe-Ouchi, A., Bi, D., van, d., Chan, W. -., Hu, A., Beadling, R. L., Marsland, S. J., Mernild, S. H., Saenko, O. A., Swingedouw, D., Sullivan, A., & Yin, J. (2016). Fate of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Strong decline under continued warming and Greenland melting. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 43(23), 12252-12260.
• Peyser, C. E., Yin, J., Landerer, F. W., & Cole, J. E. (2016). Pacific sea level rise patterns and global surface temperature variability. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 43(16), 8662-8669.
• Goddard, P. B., Yin, J., Griffies, S. M., & Zhang, S. (2015). An extreme event of sea-level rise along the Northeast coast of North America in 2009–2010. Nature Communications.
• Griffies, S. M., Winton, M., Anderson, W. G., Benson, R., Delworth, T. L., Dufour, C. O., Dunne, J. P., Goddard, P., Morrison, A. k., Rosati, A., Wittenberg, A., Yin, J., & Zhang, R. (2015). Impacts on ocean heat from transient mesoscale eddies in a hierarchy of climate models. Journal of Climate.
• Yin, J. (2015). LONG-TERM PROJECTION Initializing sea level. Nature Climate Change.
• Griffies, S. M., Yin, J., Durack, P. J., Goddard, P., Bates, S. C., Behrens, E., Bentsen, M., Bi, D., Biastoch, A., Boening, C. W., Bozec, A., Chassignet, E., Danabasoglu, G., Danilov, S., Domingues, C. M., Drange, H., Farneti, R., Fernandez, E., Greatbatch, R. J., , Holland, D. M., et al. (2014). An assessment of global and regional sea level for years 1993-2007 in a suite of interannual CORE-II simulations. Ocean Modelling, 78, 35-89.
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  We provide an assessment of sea level simulated in a suite of global ocean-sea ice models using the interannual CORE atmospheric state to determine surface ocean boundary buoyancy and momentum fluxes. These CORE-II simulations are compared amongst themselves as well as to observation-based estimates. We focus on the final 15 years of the simulations (1993-2007), as this is a period where the CORE-II atmospheric state is well sampled, and it allows us to compare sea level related fields to both satellite and in situ analyses. The ensemble mean of the CORE-II simulations broadly agree with various global and regional observation-based analyses during this period, though with the global mean thermosteric sea level rise biased low relative to observation-based analyses. The simulations reveal a positive trend in dynamic sea level in the west Pacific and negative trend in the east, with this trend arising from wind shifts and regional changes in upper 700 m ocean heat content. The models also exhibit a thermosteric sea level rise in the subpolar North Atlantic associated with a transition around 1995/1996 of the North Atlantic Oscillation to its negative phase, and the advection of warm subtropical waters into the subpolar gyre. Sea level trends are predominantly associated with steric trends, with thermosteric effects generally far larger than halosteric effects, except in the Arctic and North Atlantic. There is a general anticorrelation between thermosteric and halosteric effects for much of the World Ocean, associated with density compensated changes. Published by Elsevier Ltd.
• Parsons, L. A., Yin, J., Overpeck, J. T., Stouffer, R. J., & Malyshev, S. (2014). Influence of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on the monsoon rainfall and carbon balance of the American tropics. Geophysical Research Letters, 41, 146-151.
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  We examine the response of the American Tropics to changes in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) strength using a set of water-hosing experiments with an Earth system model that explicitly simulates the global and regional carbon cycle. We find that a moderate weakening (27%) of the AMOC, induced by a 0.1Sv (1Sv10(6)m(3)s(-1)) freshwater addition in the northern North Atlantic, drives small but statistically significant drying in the South American monsoon region. By contrast, a complete shutdown of the AMOC, induced by a 1.0Sv freshwater addition, acts to considerably shift the ITCZ southward, which changes the seasonal cycle of precipitation over Amazonia. Our results indicate that AMOC weakening can have a significant impact on the terrestrial primary productivity and carbon storage of the American Tropics.
• Yin, J. (2014). TIME OF EMERGENCE Moving up early detection. Nature Climate Change.
• Aixue, H. u., Meehl, G. A., Han, W., Yin, J., Bingyi, W. u., & Kimoto, M. (2013). Influence of continental ice retreat on future global climate. Journal of Climate, 26(10), 3087-3111.
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  Abstract: Evidence from observations indicates a net loss of global land-based ice and a rise of global sea level. Other than sea level rise, it is not clear how this loss of land-based ice could affect other aspects of global climate in the future. Here, the authors use the Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) to evaluate the potential influence of shrinking land-based ice on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) and surface climate in the next two centuries under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario with prescribed rates of melting for the Greenland Ice Sheet, West Antarctic Ice Sheet, and mountain glaciers and ice caps. Results show that the AMOC, in general, is only sensitive to the freshwater discharge directly into the North Atlantic over the next two centuries. If the loss of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet would not significantly increase from its current rate, it would not have much effect on the AMOC. The AMOC slows down further only when the surface freshwater input due to runoff from land-based ice melt becomes large enough to generate a net freshwater gain in the upper North Atlantic. This further-weakened AMOC does not cool the global mean climate, but it does cause less warming, especially in the northern high latitudes and, in particular, in Europe. The projected precipitation increase in North America in the standard run becomes a net reduction in the simulation that includes land ice runoff, but there are precipitation increases in west Australia in the simulations where the AMOC slows down because of the inclusion of landbased ice runoff. © 2013 American Meteorological Society.
• Yin, J., & Goddard, P. B. (2013). Oceanic control of sea level rise patterns along the East Coast of the United States. Geophysical Research Letters, 40(20), 5514-5520.
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  Abstract: Along the eastern seaboard of the U.S. from Florida to Maine, sea level rise (SLR) shows notable patterns and significant deviation from the global mean, which have been attributed to land subsidence. Consistent with several recent studies, we analyze various observation and modeling data, and find that ocean dynamics is also an important factor in explaining these coastal SLR patterns. Despite a southward shift since the 1990s, an overall northward shift of the Gulf Stream during the twentieth century contributed to the faster SLR in the Mid-Atlantic region (North Carolina to New Jersey). In response to the 21st century climatic forcing, the rise (fall) of the dynamic sea level north (south) of Cape Hatteras is mainly induced by the significant decline of ocean density contrast across the Gulf Stream. This baroclinic process is the likely cause of the recent switch of the coastal SLR to a pattern with faster (slower) rates north (south) of Cape Hatteras. Key Points Ocean dynamics can explain the sea level rise patterns along the U.S. East Coast Northward shift of the Gulf Stream caused faster sea level rise in Mid-Atlantic Ocean density change causes the north-high south-low sea level rise pattern ©2013. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
• Yin, J. (2012). Century to multi-century sea level rise projections from CMIP5 models. Geophysical Research Letters, 39(17).
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  Abstract: [1] Long-term projections of global-ocean thermal expansion (GTE) and the dynamic sea level (DSL) change are analyzed with 34 new CMIP5 models and under three greenhouse-gas emission scenarios. Multi-model ensemble mean (MEM) and ensemble standard deviation are calculated to identify robust features and quantify uncertainty. While the MEM of GTE shows moderate difference by 2100, with magnitudes of 13, 18 and 28 cm in RCP2. 6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, it increases and diverges significantly by 2300, with magnitudes of 21, 52 and 119 cm in the three scenarios. Model-to-model spread seems reduced in CMIP5 compared to CMIP3. The MEM changes of the DSL show similar patterns between different RCPs, but with progressively larger magnitudes in RCP2. 6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Notable features identified previously in the CMIP3 projections also occur in CMIP5, indicating their robustness across generations of climate model and emission scenario. The CMIP5 models still show disagreement in projecting the DSL changes, even under the same external forcing. © 2012. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved.
• Aixue, H. u., Meehl, G. A., Han, W., & Yin, J. (2011). Effect of the potential melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet on the Meridional Overturning Circulation and global climate in the future. Deep-Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography, 58(17-18), 1914-1926.
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  Abstract: Multiple recent observations indicate an accelerated mass loss of the Greenland Ice Sheet since the mid-1990s. This increased ice sheet mass loss might be an evidence of global warming and could be related to elevated atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Here, we use the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model version 3 to assess the potential influence of a shrinking Greenland Ice Sheet on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (MOC), the surface climate, and sea level in the next two centuries under the IPCC A1B scenario with prescribed rates of Greenland Ice Sheet melting. Results show that a low rate of Greenland melting will not significantly alter the MOC. However a moderate or high rate of Greenland melting does make the MOC weaken further. This further weakened MOC will not make the global climate in the next two centuries cooler than in the late 20th century, but will lessen the warming, especially in the northern high latitudes. Moreover, the sea level changes due to steric effect and ocean dynamics could potentially aggravate the sea level problem near the northeast North America coast and the islands in the western Pacific region. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.
• Griffies, S. M., Winton, M., Donner, L. J., Horowitz, L. W., Downes, S. M., Farneti, R., Gnanadesikan, A., Hurlin, W. J., Lee, H., Liang, Z., Palter, J. B., Samuels, B. L., Wittenberg, A. T., Wyman, B. L., Yin, J., & Zadeh, N. (2011). The GFDL CM3 coupled climate model: Characteristics of the ocean and sea ice simulations. Journal of Climate, 24(13), 3520-3544.
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  Abstract: This paper documents time mean simulation characteristics from the ocean and sea ice components in a new coupled climate model developed at the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL). The GFDL Climate Model version 3 (CM3) is formulated with effectively the same ocean and sea ice components as the earlier CM2.1 yet with extensive developments made to the atmosphere and land model components. Both CM2.1 and CM3 show stable mean climate indices, such as large-scale circulation and sea surface temperatures (SSTs). There are notable improvements in the CM3 climate simulation relative to CM2.1, including a modified SST bias pattern and reduced biases in the Arctic sea ice cover. The authors anticipate SST differences between CM2.1 and CM3 in lower latitudes through analysis of the atmospheric fluxes at the ocean surface in corresponding Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP) simulations. In contrast, SST changes in the high latitudes are dominated by ocean and sea ice effects absent in AMIP simulations The ocean interior simulation in CM3 is generally warmer than in CM2.1, which adversely impacts the interior biases. © 2011 American Meteorological Society.
• Schleussner, C. F., Frieler, K., Meinshausen, M., Yin, J., & Levermann, A. (2011). Emulating Atlantic overturning strength for low emission scenarios: Consequences for sea-level rise along the North American east coast. Earth System Dynamics, 2(2), 191-200.
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  Abstract: In order to provide probabilistic projections of the future evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), we calibrated a simple Stommeltype box model to emulate the output of fully coupled threedimensional atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Based on this calibration to idealised global warming scenarios with and without interactive atmosphere-ocean fluxes and freshwater perturbation simulations, we project the future evolution of the AMOC mean strength within the covered calibration range for the lower two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) until 2100 obtained from the reduced complexity carbon cycle-climate model MAGICC 6. For RCP3-PD with a global mean temperature median below 1.0 °C warming relative to the year 2000, we project an ensemble median weakening of up to 11% compared to 22% under RCP4.5 with a warming median up to 1.9 °C over the 21st century. Additional Greenland meltwater of 10 and 20 cm of global sea-level rise equivalent further weakens the AMOC by about 4.5 and 10 %, respectively. By combining our outcome with a multi-model sea-level rise study we project a dynamic sea-level rise along the New York City coastline of 4 cm for the RCP3-PD and of 8 cm for the RCP4.5 scenario over the 21st century. We estimate the total steric and dynamic sea-level rise for New York City to be about 24 cm until 2100 for the RCP3-PD scenario, which can hold as a lower bound for sea-level rise projections in this region, as it does not include ice sheet and mountain glacier contributions. © 2012 Author(s).
• Yin, J., Overpeck, J. T., Griffies, S. M., Hu, A., Russell, J. L., & Stouffer, R. J. (2011). Different magnitudes of projected subsurface ocean warming around Greenland and Antarctica. Nature Geoscience, 4(8), 524-528.
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  The observed acceleration of outlet glaciers and ice flows in Greenland and Antarctica is closely linked to ocean warming, especially in the subsurface layer(1-5). Accurate projections of ice-sheet dynamics and global sea-level rise therefore require information of future ocean warming in the vicinity of the large ice sheets. Here we use a set of 19 state-of-the-art climate models to quantify this ocean warming in the next two centuries. We find that in response to a mid-range increase in atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations, the subsurface oceans surrounding the two polar ice sheets at depths of 200-500m warm substantially compared with the observed changes thus far(6-8). Model projections suggest that over the course of the twenty-first century, the maximum ocean warming around Greenland will be almost double the global mean, with a magnitude of 1.7-2.0 degrees C. By contrast, ocean warming around Antarctica will be only about half as large as global mean warming, with a magnitude of 0.5-0.6 degrees C. A more detailed evaluation indicates that ocean warming is controlled by different mechanisms around Greenland and Antarctica. We conclude that projected subsurface ocean warming could drive significant increases in ice-mass loss, and heighten the risk of future large sea-level rise.
• Kopp, R. E., Mitrovica, J. X., Griffies, S. M., Yin, J., Hay, C. C., & Stouffer, R. J. (2010). The impact of Greenland melt on local sea levels: A partially coupled analysis of dynamic and static equilibrium effects in idealized water-hosing experiments. Climatic Change, 103(3), 619-625.
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  Abstract: Local sea level can deviate from mean global sea level because of both dynamic sea level (DSL) effects, resulting from oceanic and atmospheric circulation and temperature and salinity distributions, and changes in the static equilibrium (SE) sea level configuration, produced by the gravitational, elastic, and rotational effects of mass redistribution. Both effects will contribute to future sea level change. To compare their magnitude, we simulated the effects of Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS) melt by conducting idealized North Atlantic "water-hosing" experiments in a climate model unidirectionally coupled to a SE sea level model. At current rates of GIS melt, we find that geographic SE patterns should be challenging but possible to detect above dynamic variability. At higher melt rates, we find that DSL trends are strongest in the western North Atlantic, while SE effects will dominate in most of the ocean when melt exceeds ~20 cm equivalent sea level. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.
• Schleussner, C. F., Frieler, K., Meinshausen, M., Yin, J., & Levermann, A. (2010). Emulating Atlantic overturning strength for low emission scenarios: Consequences for sea-level rise along the North American east coast. Earth System Dynamics, 1(1), 357-384.
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  Abstract: In order to provide probabilistic projections of the future evolution of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), we calibrated a simple Stommel-type box model to emulate the output of fully coupled three-dimensional atmosphere-ocean general 5 circulation models (AOGCMs) of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Based on this calibration to idealised global warming scenarios with and without interactive atmosphere-ocean fluxes and freshwater perturbation simulations, we project the future evolution of the AMOC within the covered calibration range for the lower two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) until 2100 obtained from MAGICC6. 10 For RCP3-PD with a global mean temperature median below 1.0 °C warming relative to the year 2000, we project an ensemble median weakening of up to 11% compared to 22% under RCP4.5 with a warming median up to 1.9 °C over the 21st century. Additional Greenland melt water of 10 and 20 cm of global sea-level rise equivalent further weakens the AMOC by about 4.5 and 10%, respectively. By combining our outcome 15 with a multi-model sea-level rise study we project a dynamic sea-level rise along the New York City coastline of 4 cm for the RCP3-PD and of 8 cm for the RCP4.5 scenario over the 21st century. We estimate the total steric and dynamic sea-level rise for New York City to be about 24cm till 2100 for the RCP3-PD scenario, which can hold as a lower bound for sea-level rise projections in this region. © Author(s) 2010.
• Yin, J., Griffies, S. M., & Stouffer, R. J. (2010). Spatial variability of sea level rise in twenty-first century projections. Journal of Climate, 23(17), 4585-4607.
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  Abstract: A set of state-of-the-science climate models are used to investigate global sea level rise (SLR) patterns induced by ocean dynamics in twenty-first-century climate projections. The identified robust features include bipolar and bihemisphere seesaws in the basin-wide SLR, dipole patterns in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and a beltlike pattern in the Southern Ocean. The physical and dynamical mechanisms that cause these patterns are investigated in detail using version 2.1 of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) Coupled Model (CM2.1). Under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario, the steric sea level changes relative to the global mean (the local part) in different ocean basins are attributed to differential heating and salinity changes of various ocean layers and associated physical processes. As a result of these changes, water tends to move from the ocean interior to continental shelves. In the North Atlantic, sea level rises north of the Gulf Stream but falls to the south. The dipole pattern is induced by a weakening of the meridional overturning circulation. This weakening leads to a local steric SLR east of North America, which drives more waters toward the shelf, directly impacting northeastern North America. An opposite dipole occurs in the North Pacific. The dynamic SLR east of Japan is linked to a strong steric effect in the upper ocean and a poleward expansion of the subtropical gyre. In the Southern Ocean, the beltlike pattern is dominated by the baroclinic process during the twenty-first century, while the barotropic response of sea level to wind stress anomalies is significantly delayed. © 2010 American Meteorological Society.
• Yin, J., Stouffer, R. J., Spelman, M. J., & Griffies, S. M. (2010). Evaluating the uncertainty induced by the virtual salt flux assumption in climate simulations and future projections. Journal of Climate, 23(1), 80-96.
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  Abstract: The unphysical virtual salt flux (VSF) formulation widely used in the ocean component of climate models has the potential to cause systematic and significant biases in modeling the climate system and projecting its future evolution. Here a freshwater flux (FWF) and a virtual salt flux version of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 2.1 (GFDL CM2.1) are used to evaluate and quantify the uncertainties induced by the VSF formulation. Both unforced and forced runs with the two model versions are performed and compared in detail. It is found that the differences between the two versions are generally small or statistically insignificant in the unforced control runs and in the runs with a small external forcing. In response to a large external forcing, however, some biases in the VSF version become significant, especially the responses of regional salinity and global sea level. However, many fundamental aspects of the responses differ only quantitatively between the two versions. An unexpected result is the distinctly different ENSO responses. Under a strong external freshwater forcing, the great enhancement of the ENSO variability simulated by the FWFversion does not occur in the VSF version and is caused by the overexpansion of the top model layer. In summary, the principle assumption behind using virtual salt flux is not seriously violated and the VSF model has the ability to simulate the current climate and project near-term climate evolution. For some special studies such as a large hosing experiment, however, both the VSF formulation and the use of the FWF in the geopotential coordinate ocean model could have some deficiencies and one should be cautious to avoid them. © 2010 American Meteorological Society.
• Aixue, H. u., Meehl, G. A., Han, W., & Yin, J. (2009). Transient response of the MOC and climate to potential melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet in the 21st century. Geophysical Research Letters, 36(10), L10707.
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  Abstract: [1] The potential effects of Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) melting on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC) and global climate in the 21st century are assessed using the Community Climate System Model version 3 with prescribed rates of GrIS melting. Only when GrIS melting flux is strong enough to be able to produce net freshwater gain in upper subpolar North Atlantic does the MOC weaken further in the 21st century. Otherwise this additional melting flux does not alter the MOC much relative to the simulation without this added flux. The weakened MOC doesn't make the late 21st century global climate cooler than the late 20th century, but does reduce the magnitude of the warming in the northern high latitudes by a few degrees. Moreover, the additional dynamic sea level rise due to this weakened MOC could potentially aggravate the sea level problem near the northeast North America coast. Copyright 2009 by the American Geophysical Union.
• Done, J. M., Aixue, H. u., Farmer, E. C., Yin, J., Bates, S., Frappier, A. B., Halkides, D. J., Kilbourne, H. K., Sriver, R., & Woodruff, J. (2009). The thermohaline circulation and tropical cyclones in past, present and future climates. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 90(7), 1015-1017.
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  Abstract: A meeting had two discussions which focuses on the discussions of oceanic overturning circulation and tropical cyclones. The first forum described the observational needs as well as the modeling and decadal prediction of the thermohaline circulation (THC) or the meridional overturning circulation (MOC). It has been shown that recent MOC exhibits its large seasonal variations which makes its long-term trends very difficult to detect. The second forum highlights the best way to advance the understanding towards tropical cyclone behavior with the use of modeling experiments and reconstructions from the geological record. Furthermore, some discussions include the research that involves the areas that may be affected by future hurricane activity while also considering that more people should be into the studies of coastal overwash deposits.
• Griffies, S. M., Biastoch, A., Böning, C., Bryan, F., Danabasoglu, G., Chassignet, E. P., England, M. H., Gerdes, R., Haak, H., Hallberg, R. W., Hazeleger, W., Jungclaus, J., Large, W. G., Madec, G., Pirani, A., Samuels, B. L., Scheinert, M., Gupta, A. S., Severijns, C. A., , Simmons, H. L., et al. (2009). Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (COREs). Ocean Modelling, 26(1-2), 1-46.
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  Abstract: Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiments (COREs) are presented as a tool to explore the behaviour of global ocean-ice models under forcing from a common atmospheric dataset. We highlight issues arising when designing coupled global ocean and sea ice experiments, such as difficulties formulating a consistent forcing methodology and experimental protocol. Particular focus is given to the hydrological forcing, the details of which are key to realizing simulations with stable meridional overturning circulations. The atmospheric forcing from [Large, W., Yeager, S., 2004. Diurnal to decadal global forcing for ocean and sea-ice models: the data sets and flux climatologies. NCAR Technical Note: NCAR/TN-460+STR. CGD Division of the National Center for Atmospheric Research] was developed for coupled-ocean and sea ice models. We found it to be suitable for our purposes, even though its evaluation originally focussed more on the ocean than on the sea-ice. Simulations with this atmospheric forcing are presented from seven global ocean-ice models using the CORE-I design (repeating annual cycle of atmospheric forcing for 500 years). These simulations test the hypothesis that global ocean-ice models run under the same atmospheric state produce qualitatively similar simulations. The validity of this hypothesis is shown to depend on the chosen diagnostic. The CORE simulations provide feedback to the fidelity of the atmospheric forcing and model configuration, with identification of biases promoting avenues for forcing dataset and/or model development.
• Yin, J., Schlesinger, M. E., & Stouffer, R. J. (2009). Model projections of rapid sea-level rise on the northeast coast of the United States. Nature Geoscience, 2(4), 262-266.
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  Abstract: Human-induced climate change could cause global sea-level rise. Through the dynamic adjustment of the sea surface in response to a possible slowdown of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, a warming climate could also affect regional sea levels, especially in the North Atlantic region, leading to high vulnerability for low-lying Florida and western Europe. Here we analyse climate projections from a set of state-of-the-art climate models for such regional changes, and find a rapid dynamical rise in sea level on the northeast coast of the United States during the twenty-first century. For New York City, the rise due to ocean circulation changes amounts to 15, 20 and 21 cm for scenarios with low, medium and high rates of emissions respectively, at a similar magnitude to expected global thermal expansion. Analysing one of the climate models in detail, we find that a dynamic, regional rise in sea level is induced by a weakening meridional overturning circulation in the Atlantic Ocean, and superimposed on the global mean sea-level rise. We conclude that together, future changes in sea level and ocean circulation will have a greater effect on the heavily populated northeastern United States than estimated previously. © 2009 Macmillan Publishers Limited.
• Timmermann, A., Okumura, Y., An, S. -., Clement, A., Dong, B., Guilyardi, E., Hu, A., Jungclaus, J. H., Renold, M., Stocker, T. F., Stouffer, R. J., Sutton, R., Xie, S. -., & Yin, J. (2007). The influence of a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on ENSO. Journal of Climate, 20(19), 4899-4919.
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  Abstract: The influences of a substantial weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) on the tropical Pacific climate mean state, the annual cycle, and ENSO variability are studied using five different coupled general circulation models (CGCMs). In the CGCMs, a substantial weakening of the AMOC is induced by adding freshwater flux forcing in the northern North Atlantic. In response, the well-known surface temperature dipole in the low-latitude Atlantic is established, which reorganizes the large-scale tropical atmospheric circulation by increasing the northeasterly trade winds. This leads to a southward shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in the tropical Atlantic and also the eastern tropical Pacific. Because of evaporative fluxes, mixing, and changes in Ekman divergence, a meridional temperature anomaly is generated in the northeastern tropical Pacific, which leads to the development of a meridionally symmetric thermal background state. In four out of five CGCMs this leads to a substantial weakening of the annual cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific and a subsequent intensification of ENSO variability due to nonlinear interactions. In one of the CGCM simulations, an ENSO intensification occurs as a result of a zonal mean thermocline shoaling. Analysis suggests that the atmospheric circulation changes forced by tropical Atlantic SSTs can easily influence the large-scale atmospheric circulation and hence tropical eastern Pacific climate. Furthermore, it is concluded that the existence of the present-day tropical Pacific cold tongue complex and the annual cycle in the eastern equatorial Pacific are partly controlled by the strength of the AMOC. The results may have important implications for the interpretation of global multidecadal variability and paleo-proxy data. © 2007 American Meteorological Society.
• Yin, J., & Stouffer, R. J. (2007). Comparison of the stability of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation in two coupled atmosphere - Ocean general circulation models. Journal of Climate, 20(17), 4293-4315.
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  Abstract: Two coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models developed at GFDL show differing stability properties of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/ Paleoclimate Modeling Intercomparison Project (CMIP/PMIP) coordinated "water-hosing" experiment. In contrast to the R30 model in which the "off" state of the THC is stable, it is unstable in the CM2.1. This discrepancy has also been found among other climate models. Here a comprehensive analysis is performed to investigate the causes for the differing behaviors of the THC. In agreement with previous work, it is found that the different stability of the THC is closely related to the simulation of a reversed thermohaline circulation (RTHC) and the atmospheric feedback. After the shutdown of the THC, the RTHC is well developed and stable in R30. It transports freshwater into the subtropical North Atlantic, preventing the recovery of the salinity and stabilizing the off mode of the THC. The flux adjustment is a large term in the water budget of the Atlantic Ocean. In contrast, the RTHC is weak and unstable in CM2.1. The atmospheric feedback associated with the southward shift of the Atlantic ITCZ is much more significant. The oceanic freshwater convergence into the subtropical North Atlantic cannot completely compensate for the evaporation, leading to the recovery of the THC in CM2.1. The rapid salinity recovery in the subtropical North Atlantic excites large-scale baroclinic eddies, which propagate northward into the Nordic seas and Irminger Sea. As the large-scale eddies reach the high latitudes of the North Atlantic, the oceanic deep convection restarts. The differences in the southward propagation of the salinity and temperature anomalies from the hosing perturbation region in R30 and CM2.1, and associated different development of a reversed meridional density gradient in the upper South Atlantic, are the cause of the differences in the behavior of the RTHC. The present study sheds light on important physical and dynamical processes in simulating the dynamical behavior of the THC. © 2007 American Meteorological Society.
• Stouffer, R. J., Yin, J., Gregory, J. M., Dixon, K. W., Spelman, M. J., Hurlin, W., Weaver, A. J., Eby, M., Flato, G. M., Hasumi, H., Hu, A., Jungclaus, J. H., Kamenkovich, I. V., Levermann, A., Montoya, M., Murakami, S., Nawrath, S., Oka, A., Peltier, W. R., , Robitaille, D. Y., et al. (2006). Investigating the cause of the response of the thermohaline circulation to past and future climage changes. Journal of Climate, 19(8), 1365-1387.
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  Abstract: The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) is an important part of the earth's climate system. Previous research has shown large uncertainties in simulating future changes in this critical system. The simulated THC response to idealized freshwater perturbations and the associated climate changes have been intercompared as an activity of World Climate Research Program (WCRP) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project/ Paleo-Modeling Intercomparison Project (CMIP/PMIP) committees. This intercomparison among models ranging from the earth system models of intermediate complexity (EMICs) to the fully coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) seeks to document and improve understanding of the causes of the wide variations in the modeled THC response. The robustness of particular simulation features has been evaluated across the model results. In response to 0.1-Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s-1) freshwater input in the northern North Atlantic, the multimodel ensemble mean THC weakens by 30% after 100 yr. All models simulate some weakening of the THC, but no model simulates a complete shutdown of the THC. The multimodel ensemble indicates that the surface air temperature could present a complex anomaly pattern with cooling south of Greenland and warming over the Barents and Nordic Seas. The Atlantic ITCZ tends to shift southward. In response to 1.0-Sv freshwater input, the THC switches off rapidly in all model simulations. A large cooling occurs over the North Atlantic. The annual mean Atlantic ITCZ moves into the Southern Hemisphere. Models disagree in terms of the reversibility of the THC after its shutdown. In general, the EMICs and AOGCMs obtain similar THC responses and climate changes with more pronounced and sharper patterns in the AOGCMs. © 2006 American Meteorological Society.
• Yin, J., Schlesinger, M. E., Andronova, N. G., Malyshev, S., & Bin, L. i. (2006). Is a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation irreversible?. Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres, 111(12).
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  Abstract: The Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) plays a vital role in explaining past abrupt climate changes and in maintaining the current climate. Its remarkable nonlinear dynamics, first demonstrated by H. M. Stommel, have been supported by various types of climate models. This has led to severe concerns that global warming may shut down the THC irreversibly, with consequent catastrophic climate changes, particularly for Europe. Here we use an uncoupled ocean general circulation model (OGCM) and a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) to investigate the nonlinear response of the THC to freshwater perturbations in the northern North Atlantic. We find that the THC shuts down irreversibly in the uncoupled OGCM simulations but reversibly in the coupled AOGCM simulations. This occurs because of different feedback processes operating in the uncoupled OGCM and AOGCM. The reversal of the THC in the uncoupled OGCM tends to stabilize the "off" mode of the THC by decreasing the mean salinity of the Atlantic, whereas a crucial negative feedback in the AOGCM helps the THC recover. This negative feedback results from complex air-sea interactions, and its operation needs the full participation of the atmosphere. Thus given the more realistic simulation by the AOGCM, the irreversible shutdown of the THC caused by freshwater addition appears to be an artifact of the uncoupled OGCM rather than a likely outcome of global warming. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

Presentations

• Yin, J. (2018, August). Pacific Sea Level Rise Pattern and Global Temperature Variability. Ocean University of China.
• Yin, J. (2017, December). Record warm global mean surface temperature in 2014-2016 linked to large ocean heat releases from the western tropical Pacific. NOAA GFDL seminar series.
• Yin, J. (2017, March). Global Surface Warming and Pacific Sea Level Rise over the Past Two Decades. UA Physics Colloquium.
• Yin, J. (2017, November). Record Warm Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2014-2016 Linked to Large Ocean Heat Releases from the Western Tropical Pacific. Invited talk at the International Coupled Data Assimilation Symposium. Qingdao, China.
• Yin, J. (2016, December). Pacific sea level rise patterns and global surface temperature variability. 2016 AGU fall meeting.
• Yin, J. (2016, February). Extreme Sea Level Rise Event Linked to 2009-10 AMOC Downturn. 2016 AGU Ocean Sciences meeting.
• Yin, J. (2016, June). Sea level rise along the east coast of the US. The Stouffer Colloquium.
• Yin, J. (2016, September). Pacific sea level rise patterns and global surface temperature variability. CLIVAR Open Science Conference.
• Yin, J. (2016, September). Pacific sea level rise patterns and global surface temperature variability. Invited talk at Peking University.
• Yin, J. (2016, September). Pacific sea level rise patterns and global surface temperature variability. Invited talk at the Chinese Academy of Sciences (Atmospheric Physics Institute).

Poster Presentations

• Yin, J., Overpeck, J., Peyser, C., & Stouffer, R. (2018, December). Record Warming Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2014-2016 Related to Large Oceanic Heat Releases. The 2018 AGU fall meeting.
• Yin, J. (2015, July). Influence of AMOC on Sea Levels in the North Atlantic. 2015 UK-RAPID and US-AMOC International Science Meeting. Bristol, U.K..
• Yin, J., & Goddard, P. B. (2014, September). An extreme sea level rise event along the Northeast Coast. US AMOC Science Team Meeting.