Dari Fae Duval

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Scholarly Contributions

Books

• Kacira, M., Li, H., Giacomelli, G. A., Farrell-Poe, K. L., Didan, K., Cuello, J. L., Frisvold, G. B., Duval, D. F., & Bickel, A. K. (2023). The Bioeconomy & Circular Economy in Southern Arizona. https://www.mapazdashboard.arizona.edu/bioeconomy-circular-economy-southern-arizona: University of Arizona.

Journals/Publications

• Duval, D., Frisvold, G., & Bickel, A. (2024). Differential Effects of Drought on Arizona State Park Visits: Implications for Visitor Spending and Local Economies. Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, 54(Issue 1). doi:10.2139/ssrn.4707291
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  This study examines the influence of drought on monthly visits to Arizona State Parks from 1990-2018, controlling for park attributes and economic factors. Drought effects depend critically on drought length. Long-term drought (measured by 24-month Standard Precipitation Index (SPI)) discourages visits, while short-term drought (measured by 1-month SPI) encourages visits. The overall effect of drought on visits in a given month depends on the relative strength of these countervailing effects. Studies of drought impacts on outdoor recreation that select too short of a drought time span may fail to adequately capture negative effects. Considering four severe drought years in Arizona (2002, 2003, 2004, and 2018), the combined effects of short-and longer-term drought ranged from a 1% increase to a 4.4% decrease in annual visits. Associated changes in local economic output (sales), including multiplier effects, ranged from gains of $1.2 million to losses of $7.1 million annually. Projections of greater aridification in the U.S. Southwest suggest that the negative effects of longer-term drought may grow more dominant over time. Results also suggest climate warming will shift demand for park visits from summer to winter months and from low desert parks to higher-elevation parks in the north of the state. Future park planning and management may wish to consider the implications of these seasonal and spatial shifts.
• Frisvold, G. B., & Duval, D. (2023). Agricultural Water Footprints and Productivity in the Colorado River Basin. Hydrology, 11(1), 5. doi:10.3390/hydrology11010005
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  The Colorado River provides water to 40 million people in the U.S. Southwest, with river basin spanning 250,000 square miles (647,497 km2). Quantitative water rights assigned to U.S. states, Mexico, and tribes in the Colorado Basin exceed annual streamflows. Climate change is expected to limit streamflows further. To balance water demands with supplies, unprecedented water-use cutbacks have been proposed, primarily for agriculture, which consumes more than 60% of the Basin’s water. This study develops county-level, Basin-wide measures of agricultural economic water productivity, water footprints, and irrigation cash rent premiums, to inform conservation programs and compensation schemes. These measures identify areas where conservation costs in terms of foregone crop production or farm income are high or low. Crop sales averaged USD 814 per acre foot (AF) (USD 0.66/m3) of water consumed in the Lower Basin and 131 USD/AF (USD 0.11/m3) in the Upper Basin. Crop sales minus crop-specific input costs averaged 485 USD/AF (USD 0.39/m3) in the Lower Basin and 93 USD/AF (USD 0.08 per m3) in the Upper Basin. The blue water footprint (BWF) was 1.2 AF/USD 1K (1480 m3/USD1K) of water per thousand dollars of crop sales in the Lower Basin and 7.6 AF/USD 1K (9374 m3/USD1K) in the Upper Basin. Counties with higher water consumption per acre have a lower BWF.
• Bickel, A. K., Duval, D., & Frisvold, G. B. (2021). Effects of Reservoir Levels on Arizona National Recreation Area Visitation, Visitor Spending, and Local Economies. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 58(5), 622-638. doi:10.1111/1752-1688.12962
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  This study estimates the effects of reservoir levels on demand for recreation visits to Lake Powell (Glen Canyon National Recreation Area [NRA]) and Lake Mead NRA, correlating reservoir levels with overnight and total recreation visits. We also consider the effects of closures of recreation access points (such as launch ramps or marinas) when lake levels fall below critical thresholds. Our overall results are similar to past studies, but find that the access point closures are a more robust predictor of visits than simple elevation measures. Policies that manage the Colorado River, including those that seek to maintain reservoir levels above critical levels with the primary goal of preventing water delivery cutbacks, also affect recreation demand and the economies of nearby communities. Our analysis maps changes in visits (from changing elevations) to changes in visitor spending, recreationist user benefits, and regional economic indicators such as value added and employment. Such indicators could be used in future benefit-cost or economic impact analyses of Colorado River water management policies.
• Frisvold, G. B., Bickel, A. K., & Duval, D. F. (2021). Economic Contribution and Impacts of Arizona's State Parks. University of Arizona Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics.
• Frisvold, G. B., Duval, D. F., & Bickel, A. K. (2021). The Nature-Based Restorative Economy in Santa Cruz County, Arizona. University of Arizona Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics.
• Frisvold, G. B., Duval, D. F., & Bickel, A. K. (2021). Vineyards and Wineries in Arizona. University of Arizona Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics.
• Frisvold, G. B., Bickel, A. K., & Duval, D. F. (2019). FARM-TO-SCHOOL PROGRAMS IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA: A CASE STUDY ON THE ECONOMICS OF LOCAL FOODS. University of Arizona Eller School of Management MAP (Making Action Possible) Dashboards.
  More info

  https://mapazdashboard.arizona.edu/article/farm-school-programs-southern-arizona-case-study-economics-local-foods
• Frisvold, G. B., Duval, D. F., & Bickel, A. K. (2018). Effects of Depredation and Mexican Gray Wolf Presence on Ranch Returns: Case Study of a Representative Ranch in Arizona. University of Arizona.
• Frisvold, G. B., Duval, D. F., & Bickel, A. K. (2020). Agriculture in Graham and Greenlee Counties. University of Arizona Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics.
• Frisvold, G. B., Duval, D. F., & Bickel, A. K. (2020). Arizona County Agricultural Economy Profiles. University of Arizona Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics.
• Frisvold, G. B., Duval, D. F., & Bickel, A. K. (2020). The Economic Value of Trails in Arizona- A Travel Cost Method Study. University of Arizona Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics.
• Bickel, A. K., Duval, D., & Frisvold, G. B. (2019). Farm-to-School Programs’ Local Foods Activity in Southern Arizona:. The Journal of Agriculture, Food Systems, and Community Development, 8(Issue), 53-72. doi:10.5304/jafscd.2019.08c.001
  More info

  This analysis applies principles and methods from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Local Foods Toolkit to demonstrate the moderating influence of countervailing effects on the economic impacts of local food purchases through farm-to-school programs in Southern Arizona using USDA Farm to School Census data. The analysis applies and expands upon recommendations in the Toolkit, introducing the concept of export substitution and exploring how water resource constraints create tradeoffs for farms through crop-shifting and cropping rotations. The analysis reveals that for fruit and vegetable exporting regions, export substitution can be a major countervailing effect. Furthermore, the analysis examines the usefulness of the Farm to School Census as a secondary data source for estimating the economic impacts of local food activities, allowing us to make recommendations for how the Census could be expanded and supplemented for regional economic applications.
• Bickel, A. K., Duval, D., & Frisvold, G. B. (2019). Farm-to-school programs’ local foods activity in Southern Arizona: Local foods toolkit applications and lessons. The Journal of Agriculture, Food Systems, and Community Development.
  More info

  This analysis applies principles and methods from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Local Foods Toolkit to demonstrate the moderating influence of countervailing effects on the economic impacts of local food purchases through farm-to-school programs in Southern Arizona using USDA Farm to School Census data. The analysis applies and expands upon recommendations in the Toolkit, introducing the concept of export substitution and exploring how water resource constraints create tradeoffs for farms through crop-shifting and cropping rotations. The analysis reveals that for fruit and vegetable exporting regions, export substitution can be a major countervailing effect. Furthermore, the analysis examines the usefulness of the Farm to School Census as a secondary data source for estimating the economic impacts of local food activities, allowing us to make recommendations for how the Census could be expanded and supplemented for regional economic applications.
• Bickel, A. K., Duval, D., & Frisvold, G. B. (2019). Simple Approaches to Examine Economic Impacts of Water Reallocations from Agriculture. Journal of Contemporary Water Research & Education, 168(1), 29-48. doi:10.1111/j.1936-704x.2019.03319.x
• Duval, D., Bickel, A., & Frisvold, G. (2019). Farm-to-school programs’ local foods activity in Southern Arizona: Local foods toolkit applications and lessons. Journal of Agriculture, Food Systems, and Community Development, 8. doi:10.5304/jafscd.2019.08C.001
  More info

  This analysis applies principles and methods from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) Local Foods Toolkit to demonstrate the moderating influence of countervailing effects on the economic impacts of local food purchases through farm-to-school programs in Southern Arizona using USDA Farm to School Census data. The analysis applies and expands upon recommendations in the Toolkit, introducing the concept of export substitution and exploring how water resource constraints create tradeoffs for farms through crop-shifting and cropping rotations. The analysis reveals that for fruit and vegetable exporting regions, export substitution can be a major countervailing effect. Furthermore, the analysis examines the usefulness of the Farm to School Census as a secondary data source for estimating the economic impacts of local food activities, allowing us to make recommendations for how the Census could be expanded and supplemented for regional economic applications.
• Bickel, A. K., Duval, D. F., & Frisvold, G. B. (2018). Contribution of On-Farm Agriculture and Agribusiness to the Pinal County Economy. AREC website.
• Duval, D. F., Bickel, A. K., & Frisvold, G. B. (2018). Farm to school programs’ local foods activity in Southern Arizona: Local foods toolkit applications and lessons. Journal of Agriculture, Food Systems, and Community Development, 8(Supplement 3), 20. doi:https://doi.org/10.5304/jafscd.2018.08C.001
• Duval, D. F., Bickel, A. K., & Frisvold, G. B. (2018). Mexican Fresh Tomatoes: Agribusiness Value Chain Contributions to the U.S. Economy. University of Arizona Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics.
  More info

  This study provides an estimate of the economiccontribution of the forward supply chain linkagesto the U.S. economy supported by importsof Mexican fresh tomatoes, both those tomatoesdestined for consumption in the United States, aswell as those shipped by truck across the countryto Canada. Using these estimates of the directeffect of forward supply chain linkages on theeconomy, the study also estimates the indirecteffects and induced effects of this economicactivity to the U.S. economy, generally referred toas multiplier effects.
• Duval, D. F., Bickel, A. K., & Frisvold, G. B. (2018). Potential Economic Impact of Cold Inspection Facility Upgrade at Mariposa Port of Entry, Nogales, AZ. University of Arizona.
• Duval, D. F., Frisvold, G. B., Bickel, A. K., Bickel, A. K., Frisvold, G. B., & Duval, D. F. (2018). Economic Contribution of Agriculture to the Maricopa County and Gila River Indian Community Economies. University of Arizona Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics.
  More info

  Strategies to promote local and regional foods systems benefit from a baseline understanding of existing agricultural activity and its role within the regional economy. To encourage growth or changes in regional food systems, it is important to understand what is being produced, where and how it is being sold, and the potential economic impacts of shifting production and marketing channels. This study provides an estimate of the economic contribution of on-farm agriculture to the Maricopa County economy, as well as an estimate of the regional economic contribution of agricultural activity taking place within the Gila River Indian Community. It includes an overview of commodities produced, their direct sales effects, and an estimate of multiplier effects within the regional economy. Additionally, information on farm attributes, food versus non-food agricultural production, and existing data on local foods activity is provided within the larger context of agriculture as a whole in the region.
• Bickel, A. K., Duval, D. F., & Frisvold, G. B. (2017). Arizona Leafy Greens: Economic Contributions of the Industry Cluster. University of Arizona Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics.
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  Leafy greens, a broad term used to describe vegetable crops with edible leaves, are an important crop group in Arizona. Arizona plays a key role in the country’s production of leafy greens, particularly lettuce varieties and spinach. Together, Arizona and California account for nearly 90% of all leafy greens produced (by weight) in the United States. In winter months, leafy greens are sourced almost exclusively from Arizona and California counties straddling the Colorado River. Considering the state’s role in national production, leafy greens are also an important part of Arizona’s agricultural economy. Since 2010, the state’s major leafy green commodities (lettuce, spinach, and cabbage) have accounted for approximately one-fifth of all agricultural sales (crops and livestock) in Arizona and have represented a large majority of vegetable and melon sales.Sales of leafy greens contribute to the state economy, providing incomes and jobs for people working on Arizona farms. These contributions to the state economy, however, are not limited to on-farm activities. They extend to an entire cluster of industries that are involved in essential post-harvest activities that ensure the quality and shelf life of leafy greens products. The leafy greens industry cluster, therefore, includes farms producing leafy greens as well as post-harvest industries such as refrigerated warehousing, transportation, and wholesale services. Using estimates for 2015 and the IMPLAN software, the total economic contribution (including indirect and induced multiplier effects) of the leafy greens industry cluster to the state economy was estimated. . Results reported include sales (output), value added (synonymous with Gross State Product [GSP]), incomes, and state and local tax revenues. With limited data, we also estimate employment supported by Arizona’s leafy greens industry cluster.
• Bickel, A. K., Duval, D. F., & Frisvold, G. B. (2017). Arizona's Agribusiness System: Contributions to the State Economy. University of Arizona Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics.
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  The contribution of Arizona agriculture to the state economy extends beyond the commodities produced on farms and ranches across the state. On-farm production is just one part of an entire system of industries involved in and connected with agriculture in Arizona. Estimating the full contribution of agriculture to the state economy warrants an examination of the entire agribusiness system in Arizona. This study conducts an economic contribution analysis for the 2014 calendar year and estimates the direct, indirect, and induced effects of Arizona's agribusiness system to the state economy. Economic conributions are reported in terms of sales, value added (contribution to gross state product [GSP]), incomes, and number of full- and part-time jobs.
• Colby, B. G., & Duval, D. (2017). The influence of Colorado River flows on the upper Gulf of California fisheries economy. Ecological Engineering, 106(Issue), 791-798. doi:10.1016/j.ecoleng.2016.05.017
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  Abstract This analysis explores the influence of Colorado River flows into the Upper Gulf of California on fisheries productivity. Working with available time series data for the region, a series of plausible relationships are modeled between river flows and fisheries catch, focusing on the top commercial species, shrimp and gulf corvina. A tradeoff analysis between fisheries and agriculture was used to assess the net impacts on economic output of various water tradeoff scenarios and an input-output model was developed to estimate the regional economic impacts of shifting water between instream river flows for fisheries productivity and agriculture. Different crop fallowing and crop-shifting scenarios were compared on their ability to create outcomes mutually beneficial to both the agricultural and fisheries sectors. The analysis found a positive correlation between river discharge and fisheries catch. Using the resulting models, the tradeoff analysis yielded crop shifting scenarios that could potentially generate net positive economic output for both agriculture and fisheries sectors.
• Duval, D. F., Ruyle, G. B., & Dyess, J. (2017). Value of University of Arizona Cooperative Extension’s Involvement in Immediate Post-Wallow Fire Grazing Recovery. College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ).
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  The University of Arizona Cooperative Extensionparticipated in cooperative efforts to monitor rangelandrecovery and assess forage availability after the Wallow Firethat provided critical information supporting the ForestService’s decision to allow grazing to resume on allotmentsearlier than originally anticipated. Enhancement and use ofthe University of Arizona Cooperative Extension VegetationGIS Data System software allowed Forest Service andUniversity personnel to quickly record and analyze ecologicaldata. This ecological data was important to determiningthe response of vegetation to provide forage for livestockand wildlife. Estimates of benefits to ranchers from earlierresumption of grazing on their allotments range from $12,241to $52,835 per allotment. Estimates of total rancher benefitsrange from $477,410 to $2,060,577.
• Frisvold, G. B., Kerna, A., & Duval, D. F. (2017). The Contribution of Small Grains Production to Arizona’s Economy. N/A.
• Kerna, A., Duval, D. F., & Frisvold, G. B. (2017). The Contribution of Arizona’s Vegetable and Melon Industry Cluster to the State Economy. N/A.
• Kerna, A., Vautour, J., Houtkooper, L. B., Farrell, V. A., Mccullough, L., Misner, S., Duval, D., Duval, D. F., Houtkooper, L. K., & Misner, S. L. (2017). The University of Arizona Cooperative Extension Nutrition Network’s Contribution to the Arizona Economy in 2014. UA Cooperative Extension Bulletin.
• Duval, D. F., & Colby, B. G. (2016). The influence of Colorado River flows on the upper Gulf of California fisheries economy. Ecological Engineering.
• Duval, D. F., Frisvold, G. B., Kerna, A., & Umeda, K. (2016). Contribution of the Golf Industry to the Arizona Economy in 2014. N/A.
• Duval, D. F., Ruyle, G. B., & Howery, L. D. (2016). Economic Impact of Cooperative Extension Efforts in Rangeland Management for a Northern Arizona Ranching Allotment. University of Arizona Cooperative Extension Bulletin.
• Duval, D. F., Ruyle, G. B., & Howery, L. D. (2016). Economic Impact of Cooperative Extension Efforts in Rangeland Management for a Northern Arizona Ranching Allotment. https://extension.arizona.edu/sites/extension.arizona.edu/files/pubs/az1707-2016_0.pdf. University of Arizona Cooperative Extension Bulletin.
• Kerna, A., Duval, D. F., & Frisvold, G. B. (2016). Yuma Visitor Survey: Characteristics and Economic Impacts of Hotel Visitors. N/A.

Proceedings Publications

• Duval, D. F., Kerna, A., & Frisvold, G. B. (2016, November 2016). Using Enterprise Software Data to Analyze the Economic Contributions and Impacts of University Programs With the IMPLAN Model. In Mid‐Continent Regional Science Association .

Presentations

• Frisvold, G. B., Duval, D. F., & Bickel, A. K. (2022). Economic Impacts of Agriculture, Recreational Tourism, and Rural Communities. ADWR BriefingADWR.
• Duval, D. F. (2018, October 2018). US Imports of Mexican Produce: Agribusiness Value Chain Analysis for Top Specialty Crop Commodities. Food Studies. Vancouver, Canada: University of British Columbia.
• Duval, D. F., & Kerna, A. (2016, November). Using Enterprise Software Data to Analyze the Economic Contributions and Impacts of University Programs With the IMPLAN Model. Mid‐Continent Regional Science Association Annual Conference. Charlotte, NC.
• Kerna, A., & Duval, D. F. (2016, December). Considerations for Measuring Program Impacts. Rangelands Partnership- Renewable Resources Extension Act Meeting.
• Kerna, A., & Duval, D. F. (2016, December). Cooperative Extension Economic Analyses. Extension Administration Retreat.
  More info

  Presentation for EAT.

Poster Presentations

• Duval, D. F. (2018, March 2018). The Regional Economics of Farm to School Programs in Southern Arizona. CALS Poster Forum.
• Bickel, A. K., Duval, D. F., & Frisvold, G. B. (2017, Spring). Economic Contribution and Interdependence of Arizona's Vegetable and Melon and Small Grains Industry Clusters. CALS Poster Forum.
• Duval, D. F., Bickel, A. K., & Frisvold, G. B. (2017, Spring). Contribution of the Golf Industry to the Arizona Economy in 2014. CALS Poster Forum.
• Kerna, A., Duval, D. F., & Frisvold, G. B. (2015, October). Economic Impacts Generated by UA School of Natural Resources and the Environment (SNRE) Federal Research & Extension Grants. CALS Poster Forum. Tucson.

Other Teaching Materials

• Duval, D. F., Curley, D. L., Argyros, J., Argyros, J., Curley, D. L., & Duval, D. F. (2017. Santa Cruz County Family Resource Centers Policy Action Brief. University of Arizona Cooperative Extension.

Others

• Orr, E. R., Crimmins, M. A., Garfin, G. M., Duval, D. F., Jones, C. K., Wright, A. D., Gouge, D. H., & Kosmider, A. R. (2024, December). Kosmider, A.R., Gouge, D. H., Wright, A., D., Jones, C., K., Duval, D., F., Garfin, G., M., Crimmins, M., A., Orr, E., R.  (2024) University of Arizona Cooperative Extension Climate Change Needs Assessment - University of Arizona Extension Climate Science Working Group. Kosmider, A.R., Gouge, D. H., Wright, A., D., Jones, C., K., Duval, D., F., Garfin, G., M., Crimmins, M., A., Orr, E., R.  (2024) University of Arizona Cooperative Extension Climate Change Needs Assessment - University of Arizona Extension Climate Science Working Group. https://extension.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/2024-12/UA_Extension_Climate_Needs_Assessment_Full_Report_04152024-2.pdf. Kosmider, A.R., Gouge, D. H., Wright, A., D., Jones, C., K., Duval, D., F., Garfin, G., M., Crimmins, M., A., Orr, E., R. (2024) University of Arizona Cooperative Extension Climate Change Needs Assessment - University of Arizona Extension Climate Science Working Group. https://extension.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/2024-12/UA_Extension_Climate_Needs_Assessment_Full_Report_04152024-2.pdf. https://extension.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/2024-12/UA_Extension_Climate_Needs_Assessment_Full_Report_04152024-2.pdf
  More info

  The group finalized a report and interpretation of needs assessment data collected from University Extension faculty in 2023.
• Duval, D. F. (2017, March). Regional Economic Contribution of The Garden Kitchen Program . https://pima.legistar.com/View.ashx?M=F&ID=5088064&GUID=73DA74ED-1751-4252-8500-471613C25E88
• Duval, D. F. (2016, March). Economic Impacts Generated by University of Arizona Cooperative Extension Federally Recognized Tribes Extension Program (FRTEP).
• Kerna, A., & Duval, D. F. (2016, December). Summary of FY2014 Economic Impacts Genrated by University of Arizona Cooperative Extension.