Hsin I Chang

Interests

Research

Regional climate modeling, Asian Monsoon, North American monsoon, Extreme events, Atmospheric dynamics, Climate change, Dust storms

Teaching

Weather and climate variability,atmospheric dynamics, numerical modeling

Courses

Scholarly Contributions

Journals/Publications

• Bunn, P., Newman, A., Chang, H. I., Castro, C. L., Arnold, J., & Clark, M. (2022). Improving station-based ensemble surface meteorological analyses using numerical weather prediction: A case study of the Oroville Dam crisis precipitation event. Journal of Hydrometeorology.
• Risanto, C. B., Chang, H. I., Luong, T. M., Castro, C. L., Desari, H. P., & Hoteit, I. (2022). Retrospective Sub-Seasonal Forecasts of Extreme Precipitation Events in the Arabian Peninsula Using Convective-Permitting Modeling. Climate Dynamics.
• Chang, H. I., Geogakakos, K. P., Modrick, T., Halper, E., Shamir, E., & Castro, C. L. (2019). Statistical and dynamical downscaling impact on projected hydrologic assessment in an arid environment: A case study from Bill Williams River Basin and Alamo Lake, Arizona.. Journal Hydrology X. doi:10.1016/j.hydroa.2019.100019
• Dominguez, F., Castro, C. L., Chang, H. I., & Pal, S. (2019). Credibility of Convective-Permitting Modeling to Improve Seasonal Precipitation Forecasting in the Southwestern United States. Front. Earth Sci.. doi:10.3389/feart.2019.00011
• Carrillo, C. M., Castro, C. L., Garfin, G. M., Chang, H. I., Bukovsky, M. S., & Mearns, L. O. (2018). Pacific sea surface temperature related influences on North American monsoon precipitation within North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program models. International Journal of Climatology.
• Luong, T. M., Castro, C. L., Nguyen, T. M., Chang, H. I., & Cassell, W. W. (2018). Improvement in the Modeled Representation of North American Monsoon Precipitation Using a Modified Kain–Fritsch Convective Parameterization Scheme. Atmosphere.
• Martinez, J. A., Arias, P. A., Castro, C. L., Chang, H. I., & Ochoa‐Moya, C. A. (2018). Sea surface temperature‐related response of precipitation in northern South America according to a WRF multi‐decadal simulation. International Journal of Climatology.
• Ochoa-Moya, C. A., Chang, H. I., Castro, C. L., Arias, P. A., & Martinez, J. A. (2018). Sea surface temperature-related response of precipitation in northern South America according to a WRF multi-decadal simulation. International Journal of Climatology. doi:10.1002/joc.5940
• Pal, S., Chang, H. I., Castro, C. L., & Dominguez, F. (2018). Improvement in Seasonal Precipitation Forecasting in the southwestern US using Convective-Permitting Modeling. Frontiers.
• Carillo, C. M., Castro, C. L., Chang, H. I., & Luong, T. M. (2017). Multi-year climate variability in the Southwestern United States within a context of a dynamically downscaled twentieth century reanalysis. Climate Dynamics.
• Mazon, J. J., Castro, C. L., Adams, D. K., Chang, H., Carrillo, C. M., & Brost, J. J. (2016). Objective Climatological Analysis of Extreme Weather Events in Arizona during the North American Monsoon. JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY, 55(11), 2431-2450.
• Chang, H., Castro, C. L., Carrillo, C. M., & Dominguez, F. (2015). The more extreme nature of US warm season climate in the recent observational record and two "well-performing" dynamically downscaled CMIP3 models. JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 120(16), 8244-8263.
• Shamir, E., Megdal, S. B., Carrillo, C., Castro, C. L., Chang, H., Chief, K., Corkhill, F. E., Eden, S., Georgakakos, K. P., Nelson, K. M., & Prietto, J. (2015). Climate change and water resources management in the Upper Santa Cruz River, Arizona (vol 521, pg 18, 2015). JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY, 527, 1190-1190.
• Shamir, E., Megdal, S. B., Carrillo, C., Castro, C. L., Chang, H., Chief, K., Corkhill, F. E., Eden, S., Georgakakos, K. P., Nelson, K. M., & Prietto, J. (2015). Climate change and water resources management in the Upper Santa Cruz River, Arizona. JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY, 521, 18-33.
• Ciancarelli, B., Castro, C. L., Woodhouse, C., Dominguez, F., Chang, H., Carrillo, C., & Griffin, D. (2014). Dominant patterns of US warm season precipitation variability in a fine resolution observational record, with focus on the southwest. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 34(3), 687-707.
• Castro, C. L., Chang, H., Dominguez, F., Carrillo, C., Schemm, J., & Juang, H. H. (2012). Can a Regional Climate Model Improve the Ability to Forecast the North American Monsoon?. JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 25(23), 8212-8237.
• Mahmood, R., Pielke Sr., R. A., Hubbard, K. G., Niyogi, D., Bonan, G., Lawrence, P., McNider, R., McAlpine, C., Etter, A., Gameda, S., Qian, B., Carleton, A., Beltran-Przekurat, A., Chase, T., Quintanar, A. I., Adegoke, J. O., Vezhapparambu, S., Conner, G., Asefi, S., , Sertel, E., et al. (2010). IMPACTS OF LAND USE/LAND COVER CHANGE ON CLIMATE AND FUTURE RESEARCH PRIORITIES. BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 91(1), 37-46.
• Chang, H., Kumar, A., Niyogi, D., Mohanty, U. C., Chen, F., & Dudhia, J. (2009). The role of land surface processes on the mesoscale simulation of the July 26, 2005 heavy rain event over Mumbai, India. GLOBAL AND PLANETARY CHANGE, 67(1-2), 87-103.
• Chang, H., Niyogi, D., Kumar, A., Kishtawal, C. M., Dudhia, J., Chen, F., Mohanty, U. C., & Shepherd, M. (2009). Possible relation between land surface feedback and the post-landfall structure of monsoon depressions. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 36.
• Niyogi, D., Chang, H. I., Chen, F., Gu, L., Kumar, A., Menon, S., & Pielke, Sr, R. (2007). Potential Impacts of Aerosol-Land-Atmosphere Interaction on the Indian Monsoonal Rainfall Characteristics. Natural Hazards- Monsoon Special Issue, 42, 345-359.
• Niyogi, D., Chang, H., Chen, F., Gu, L., Kumar, A., Menon, S., & Pielke Sr., R. A. (2007). Potential impacts of aerosol-land-atmosphere interactions on the Indian monsoonal rainfall characteristics. NATURAL HAZARDS, 42(2), 345-359.
• Niyogi, D., Chang, H. I., Saxena, V. K., Holt, T., Alapaty, K., Booker, F., Chen, F., Davis, K. J., Holben, B., Matsui, T., Meyers, T., Oechel, W. C., Pielke, R. A., Wells, R., Wilson, K., & Xue, Y. K. (2004). Direct observations of the effects of aerosol loading on net ecosystem CO2 exchanges over different landscapes. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 31(20).

Presentations

• Chang, H. I., Rolon, E., Castro, C. L., Shamir, E., Mendoza Fierro, L., Karimi, S. M., & Acke, C. (2024).

  Ensemble-based climate assessment for mining operations in Mexico: a university and private sector partnership 

  . 104th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting.
• Chang, H. I., Mendoza Fierro, L., Karimi, S. M., Rolon, E., Castro, C. L., & Shamir, E. (2023). Climate assessments for mining operations in Mexico through regional climate model projections. 103th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting.
• Hoteit, I., Loung, T. M., Risanto, C. B., Chang, H. I., & Castro, C. L. (2021, Spring). Sub-seasonal forecast capability for Arabian Peninsula convective extremes using convective-permitting regional climate modeling. European Geophysical Union General Assembly.
• Castro, C. L., Chang, H. I., Wood, A. F., Newman, A., & Bunn, P. (2021). Improving in Situ Observation-Based Gridded Meteorology Products Using Numerical Weather Prediction Output: A case study of the rain event that caused the Oroville Dam Crisis. 101st American Meteorological Society Meeting.
• Risanto, C. B., Hoteit, I., Oliver, K., Chang, H. I., & Castro, C. L. (2021). Tracking Mesoscale Convective System Sub-seasonal Forecast in the Arabian Peninsula Through Satellite Observation and Numerical Modeling Prodcuts. 101st American Meteorological Society Meeting.
• Castro, C. L., Chang, H. I., Bukovsky, M., & Prein, A. (2020, January). Convective-Permitting Modeling for Retrospective Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Forecasting Using the Framework of the Coordinated Regional Ensemble Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). Eighth Symposium on Weather, Water and Climate Enterprise, 100th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting.
• Castro, C. L., Risanto, C. B., Chang, H. I., Hoteit, I., & Luong, T. M. (2020, January). Simulating Extreme Precipitation over the Arabian Peninsula Using a Convective-Permitting Subseasonal Reforecast Product. 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, 100th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting.
• Chang, H. I., Castro, C. L., Hoteit, I., Risanto, C. B., & Luong, T. (2020, December). Saudi Arabia extreme weather ensemble forecast evaluation at sub-seasonal timescale. 2020 American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting. Online.
• Chang, H. I., Castro, C. L., Hoteit, I., Risanto, C. B., & Luong, T. (2020, December). Saudi Arabia extreme weather ensemble forecast evaluation at sub-seasonal timescale. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting.
• Wood, A. W., Bunn, P., Newman, A., Chang, H. I., Liu, H., Castro, C. L., & Clark, M. (2020, January). Merging HRRR Output into a Real-Time Gauge-Based Ensemble CONUS-Wide Dataset of Gridded Meteorological Fields. 34th Conference on Hydrology, 100th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting.
• Bukovsky, M., Chang, H. I., Prein, A., & Castro, C. L. (2019, Fall). Convective-permitting modeling for retrospective sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasting using the framework of the Coordinated Ensemble Downscaling Experiment. American Geophysical Union Fall 2019 Meeting.
• Chang, H. I., Jares, M., Grossman-Clarke, S., Luong, T. M., & Castro, C. L. (2019, January). The Impact of Urbanization on North American Monsoon Precipitation in Phoenix, Arizona, Within a Context of Modeled Severe Weather Events. 99th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting.
• Dominguez, F., Pal, S., Chang, H. I., & Castro, C. L. (2019, August). Toward improvement in convective precipitation forecasting in the southwest United States using a convective-permitting regional climate model. 2019 Latsis Symposium on High Resolution Climate Modeling: Perspectives and Challenges. Zurich, Switzerland.
• Moker, Jr., J. M., Mendoza-Fierro, L., Chang, H. I., Risanto, C. B., Robles, A., Perez-Ruiz, E., Vivoni, E., Lizarraga, C., Rodriguez, J., Minjarez-Sosa, C. M., Ochoa-Moya, C., Quintanar, A. I., Arellano, A. F., Adams, D. K., & Castro, C. L. (2019, January). A New Hydrometeorological Testbed in Northern Mexico for Improved Weather Forecasts and Climate Monitoring. 99th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting.
• Risanto, C. B., Loung, T., Castro, C. L., & Chang, H. I. (2019, Fall). Extreme weather impacts assessments in arid and semi-arid regions through sub-seasonal regional climate forecasting. American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2019.
• Chang, H. I., Oliver, K., Castro, C. L., & Hoteit, I. (2021, January). Tracking mesoscale convective system sub-seasonal forecast in the Arabian Peninsula through satellite observation and numerical modeling products. 30th Conference on Weather Analysis and Forecasting/26th Conference on Numerical Weather Prediction, 100th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting. Online.
• Angel, M. C., Mejia, J., Chang, H. I., Ochoa, C. A., & Castro, C. L. (2017, Dec). Annual and Diurnal Precipitation Distributions as Simulated by WRF-based CORDEX-Central America. American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting.
• Chang, H. I., Castro, C. L., Mearns, L., & Bukovsky, M. (2015, December). Trend of climate extremes in North America: A comparison between dynamically downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 simulations. American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting. San Francisco, CA: American Geophysical Union.
• Chang, H. I., Castro, C. L., Mearns, L., & Bukovsky, M. (2015, October). North American climate extremes and the relationship with natural variability in dynamically downscaled CMIP3 and CMIP5 projections. Int. WS: Issues in downscaling of climate change projection. Tsukuba, Japan: Japan Meteorological Research Institute.
• Shamir, E., Carrillo, C., Castro, C. L., Chang, H. I., Megdal, S. B., Eden, S., & Prietto, J. (2015, June). Water resources vulnerability to climate change in the Upper Santa Cruz River, Arizona. Proceedings of the 7th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software. San Diego, CA: International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software.
• Chang, H. I., Castro, C. L., & Niu, G. (2013, December). Impact of dynamic vegetation on evolution of the North American Monsoon region in a regional climate model.. 46th American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting. San Francisco, CA: American Geophysical Union.
• Chang, H. I., Castro, C. L., Dominguez, F., & Monson, R. K. (2012, December). The synergistic relationship of climate change and natural variability in consideration of dynamically downscaled warm season climate projections in North America. 45th American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting. San Francisco, CA: American Geophysical Union.
• Chang, H. I., Castro, C. L., Carillo, C., & Dominguez, F. (2011, December). Future regional climate assessment for the Southwest U.S. Summer monsoon region using dynamically downscaled IPCC scenarios. 44th American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting. San Francisco, CA: American Geophysical Union.
• Chang, H. I., Niyogi, D., & Mohanty, U. (2011, August). Sensitivity of Convective Parameterization to the Simulation of Pre-monsoon Thunderstorms over Northeast India. 8th Asia Oceania Geosciences Society Annual Meeting and Geosciences World Community Exhibition. Taipei, Taiwan: Oceania Geosciences Society.
• Chang, H. I., Castro, C. L., Dominguez, F., & Ciancarelli, B. (2010, December). Potential Improvement in Warm Season North American Monsoon Forecast Using Dynamically Downscaled GCM Data. 43rd American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, San Francisco. San Francisco: American Geophysical Union.
• Chang, H. I., Niyogi, D., Chen, F., Kumar, A., Song, C., Zhao, L., Govindaraju, R., Merwade, V., Lei, M., & Scheeringa, K. (2008, June). Developing a TeraGrid Based Land Surface Hydrology and Weather Modeling Interface. Proceedings of the TeraGrid Conference. Las Vegas, NV: TeraGrid.
• Chang, H. I., Kumar, A., Niyogi, D., Mohanty, U., Chen, F., & Dudhia, J. (2007, January). Impact of physical parameterization and land use land cover change on the simulation of the July 26, 2005 heavy rain event over Mumbai, India. 85th American Meteorological Society Annual meeting. San Antonio, TX: American Meteorological Society.
• Niyogi, D., Chang, H. I., Gu, L., Menon, S., & Pielie, Sr, R. (2006, January). Potential impacts of aerosol-land-atmosphere interaction on the Indian Monsoon. 86th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting. Atlanta, GA: American Meteorological Society.

Poster Presentations

• Mendoza Fierro, L., Chang, H. I., Shamir, E., Castro, C. L., Karimi, S. M., & Acke, C. (2023). Climate Change Projections Analysis of Meteorological Parameters for Mining Operationsin Mexico. American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting.
• Hoteit, I., Castro, C. L., Chang, H. I., Dasari, H. P., Risanto, C. B., & Luong, T. (2021). Added Value of Cloud-Resolving Modelling for the Simulation of Arabian Peninsula Winter Rainfall. American Geophysical Union Fall 2021 Meeting.
• Hoteit, I., Castro, C. L., Risanto, C. B., Attada, R., Chang, H. I., Dasari, H. P., & Luong, T. M. (2021). Sub-seasonal rainfall climatology and predictability of the West coast of the Red Sea. American Geophysical Union Fall 2021 Meeting.
• Luong, T. M., Hoteit, I., Cui, W., Dong, X., Chang, H. I., Castro, C. L., & Oliver, K. (2020, January). Tracking Extreme Precipitation Events Using Satellite Infrared to Improve MCS Predictability. 19th Annual Student Conference, 100th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting.
• Attada, R., Loung, T., Risanto, C. B., Hoteit, I., Castro, C. L., & Chang, H. I. (2019, August). Extreme weather impact assessment in Saudi Arabia and operational sub-seasonal forecasting. 2019 Latsis Symposium on High Resolution Climate Modeling: Perspectives and Challenges. Zurich, Switzerland.
• Castro, C. L., Lahmers, T., Chang, H. I., Georgakakos, K. P., Halper, E., & Shamir, E. (2019, January). Impact of Climate Model "Downscaling" on Projected Water Resources in Arid Basins, Two Case Studies From Arizona. 99th Annual American Meteorological Society Meeting.
• Halper, E., Bearup, L., Chang, H. I., Bunn, P., & Castro, C. L. (2019, January). Assessment of North American Monsoon Variability in the Lower Santa Cruz Basin Using Dynamically Downscaled CMIP5 Projections. 99th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting.
• Castro, C. L., & Chang, H. I. (2017, Dec). North American monsoon hydroclimat eextremes in the Southwest U.S. influenced by dynamically downscaled CMIP5 ensembles. American Geophysical Union Annual Meeting.
• Chang, H. I., Castro, C. L., Luong, T. M., Lahmers, T., Jares, M., Carrillo, C. M., Adams, D. K., & Mazon, J. (2017, Dec). The more extreme nature of North American monsoon precipitation in the Southwestern United States. Americal Geophysical Union Annual Meeting.
• Chang, H. I., Castro, C. L., Megdal, S. B., & Tapia, E. (2017, January). Toward Improved Seasonal Forecasting of Water Resources and North American monsoon Precipitation in the Southwestern United States. 97th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting. Seattle, WA: American Meteorological Society.
• Chang, H. I., Lorenzo, A. T., Castro, C. L., Betterton, E. A., Leuthold, M. S., Holmgren, W. F., & Cao, Y. (2017, January). An Evaluation of Nine ARW-WRF Microphysics Schemes for Solar Power Forecast in Arizona. 97th Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society. Seattle.
• Mazon, J., Castro, C. L., Jares, M., Chang, H. I., Lahmers, T., Luong, T., Carillo, C., Carillo, C., Luong, T., Lahmers, T., Jares, M., Chang, H. I., Mazon, J., & Castro, C. L. (2017, January). Evaluating Changes in Extreme Weather During the North American Monsoon in the Southwest U.S. Using High Resolution, Convective-Permitting Regional Atmospheric Modeling. 97th American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting. Seattle, WA: American Meteorological Society.
• Castro, C. L., Chang, H. I., Luong, T., Lahmers, T., Jares, M., Mezon, J., Carrillo, C., & Adams, D. (2016, August). Evaluating Changes in Extreme Weather During the North American Monsoon in the Southwest U.S. Using High Resolution, Convective-Permitting Regional Atmospheric Modeling. GEWEX Convection-Permitting Climate Modeling Workshop. Boulder, CO: National Center for Atmospheric Research.
• Chang, H. I., Castro, C. L., Luong, T., Lahmers, T., Jares, M., Mezon, J., Carrillo, C., & Adams, D. (2016, December). Evaluating Changes in Extreme Weather During the North American Monsoon in the Southwest U.S. Using High Resolution, Convective-Permitting Regional Atmospheric Modeling. S2S Extremes Workshop 2016. Palisades, NY: International Research Institute for Climate and Society.
• Chang, H. I., Troch, P. A., Castro, C. L., & Mukherjee, R. (2014, June). Regional climate and streamflow projections in North America under IPCC CMIP5 scenarios. 3rd Lund Regional-scale Climate Modeling Workshop. Lund, Sweden: Lund University.
• Chang, H. I., Carrillo, C., Demaria, E., Dominguez, F., Castro, C. L., & Durcik, M. (2011, May). Dynamical downscaling of global climate model products for water resource projection in the Southwest U.S. Sustainability on the Border: Water, Climate and Social Change in a Fragile Landscape. El Paso, TX: University of Texas, El Paso.
• Chang, H. I., Castro, C. L., & Ciancarelli, B. (2010, December). Statistical Analysis and Verification of Dynamically Downscaled Seasonal Forecast for the Summer North American Monsoon Region. 43rd American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting. San Francisco, CA: American Geophysical Union.

Creative Productions

• Chang, H. I., Castro, C. L., & Cassell, B. (2017. Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment - North America (WRF climate outputs)National Center for Atmospheric Research. https://www.earthsystemgrid.org/search/cordexsearch.html
  More info

  Part of NA CORDEX data archive: Dynamically downscaled CMIP5 regional climate data using WRF regional climate model. Two sets of CMIP5 products are downscaled (MPI ECHAM6 and HadGEM2) at 25 and 50km resolution for 1950-2100. ERA-Interim Reanalysis is also downscaled at 25 and 50 km resolution for 1979-2016, it is used as CMIP5 downscaled product validation baseline.