Gregg M Garfin

Interests

Teaching

Adaptation to Climate Change, Integrated Climate Assessments, Drought, Cooperative Extension

Research

Adaptation to Climate Change, Climate Services, Drought, Climate Variability and Change

Courses

Scholarly Contributions

Books

• Garfin, G. M. (2016). Challenges, pitfalls, and lessons learned in developing a drought decision-support tool.
• Garfin, G. M. (2016). Climate in Context: Science and Society Partnering for Adaptation. GB
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  Climate in Context describes what it takes to help scientists and stakeholders work together to “co-produce” climate science knowledge, policy, and action. This state-of-the art synthesis reflects on lessons learned by RISA programs, and provides a sober assessment of the challenges ahead. Through case studies from various US regions, this book provides lessons and guidance for organizations and individuals who want to work at the science-society interface on a range of climate challenges.
• Garfin, G. M. (2016). Evolving the practice of Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments.
• Garfin, G. M. (2016). Preface.
• Garfin, G. M. (2016). The making of national seasonal wildfire outlooks.
• Parris, A. S., Garfin, G. M., Dow, K., Meyer, R., & Close, S. L. (2016). Climate in Context: Science and Society Partnering for Adaptation. http://www.wiley.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-1118474791.html: John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
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  Expected Publication Date: April, 2016.Society is increasingly affected by climate impacts, from prolonged water shortages to damaging coastal floods and wildfires. Scientists studying climate variations are eager to have their knowledge used in adaptive decision making. To achieve this, science and society must engage productively around complex management and policy challenges. For over 20 years, the science-society interface has been fertile ground for the Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) programs sponsored by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Climate in Context describes what it takes to help scientists and stakeholders work together to “co-produce” climate science knowledge, policy, and action. This state-of-the art synthesis reflects on lessons learned by RISA programs, and provides a sober assessment of the challenges ahead. Through case studies from various US regions, this book provides lessons and guidance for organizations and individuals who want to work at the science-society interface on a range of climate challenges.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013). Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States. US
• Garfin, G. M. (2013). Assessment of climate change in the Southwest United States: A report prepared for the national climate assessment.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013). Climate change and U.S.-Mexico border communities.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013). Overview.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013). Research strategies for addressing uncertainties.
• Garfin, G. M., Jardine, A., Merideth, R., Black, M., & LeRoy, S. (2013). Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: Island Press.
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  Prepared for the 2013 National Climate Assessment and a landmark study in terms of its breadth and depth of coverage, this report blends the contributions of 120 experts in climate science, economics, ecology, engineering, geography, hydrology, planning, resources management, and other disciplines to provide the most comprehensive, and understandable, analysis to date about climate and its effects on the people and landscapes of Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah—including the U.S.-Mexico border region and the lands of Native Nations. What is the climate of the Southwest like today? What has it been like in the past, and how is it projected to change over the 21st century? How will that affect water resources, ecosystems, agricultural production, energy supply and delivery, transportation, human health, and a host of other areas? How vulnerable is the region to climate change? What else do we need to know about it, and how can we limit its adverse effects? In addressing these and other questions, the book offers decision makers and stakeholders a substantial basis from which to make informed choices that will affect the well-being of the region’s inhabitants in the decades to come.
• Garfin, G. M., Bark, R., Pittock, J., & Pulwarty, R. (2011). Colorado River - Murray Darling Basin Comparative Lessons in Preparing for Drought and Adapting to a Changing Climate. Seattle, WA
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  1/26/2011
• Garfin, G. M. (2006). Drought, climate variability, and implications for water supply and management.

Chapters

• Parris, A., Close, S. L., Meyer, R., Dow, K., & Garfin, G. M. (2016). Evolving the Practice of Regional Integrated Sciences and Assesments. Chapter 12.. In Climate in Context: Science and Society Partnering for Adaptation. J. Wiley and Sons, Ltd./American Geophysical Union.
• Garfin, G. M., LeRoy, S., Muth, M., Jones, H., Ibarra-Ochoa, M., Vazquez-Aguirre, J. L., Shafer, M., Brown, D., Saldana-Colin, J., Velazquez-Angulo, G., & Romo-Aguilar, M. L. (2017). Climate Services for Coping with Climate Change, Drought, and Extreme Heat in the México-U.S. Border Region.. In Cuenca del Río Conchos: Una Mirada desde las Ciencias ante el Cambio Climático.(pp 23-57). Jiutepec, Morelos, Mexico: Instituto Mexican de Tecnologia del Agua.
• Gonzalez, P., Garfin, G. M., Breshears, D. D., Brown, H. E., Brooks, K. M., Elias, E. H., Gunasekara, A., Huntly, N., Maldonado, J. K., Mantua, N. J., Margolis, H. G., McAfee, S., Middleton, B. R., & Udall, B. H. (2018). Southwest. In Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II(pp 1101–1184). Washington, DC: U.S. Global Change Research Program. doi:doi: 10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH25
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  Chapter 25 in the Fourth National Climate Assessment
• Gonzalez, P., Garfin, G. M., Breshears, D. D., Brown, H. E., Brooks, K. M., Elias, E. H., Gunasekara, A., Huntly, N., Maldonado, J. K., Mantua, N. J., Margolis, H. G., McAfee, S., Middleton, B. R., & Udall, B. H. (2018). Southwest.. In Impacts, Risks, and Adaptation in the United States: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume II(pp 1101-1184). Washington, DC: U.S. Global Change Research Program. doi:10.7930/NCA4.2018.CH25
• Carbone, G., Rhee, J., Dow, K., Fowler, J., Garfin, G. M., Hartmann, H., Lay, E., & DeGaetano, A. (2016). Challenges, Pitfalls, and Lessons Learned in Developing a Drought Decision-Support Tool. Chapter 8.. In Climate in Context: Science and Society Partnering for Adaptation(pp 173-190). J. Wiley and Sons, Ltd./American Geophysical Union.
• Garfin, G. M., Brown, T., Wordell, T., & Delgado, E. (2016). The Making of National Seasonal Wildfire Outlooks. Chapter 7.. In Climate in Context: Science and Society Partnering for Adaptation(pp 143-172). J. Wiley and Sons, Ltd./American Geophysical Union.
• Parris, A., Close, S. L., Meyer, R., Dow, K., & Garfin, G. M. (2016). Evolving the Practice of Regional Integrated Sciences and Assesments. Chapter 12.. In Climate in Context: Science and Society Partnering for Adaptation(pp 255-262). J. Wiley and Sons, Ltd./American Geophysical Union.
• Garfin, G. M. (2014). Chapter 3. Climate and Hydrology of the Upper Gila River Basin.. In Gila River-Arizona Water Settlement Act Ecological Flows Report.(pp 40-79). The Nature Conservancy in New Mexico.
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  Garfin, G., H. I. Chang, and M. Switanek. 2014. Chapter 3. Climate and Hydrology of the Upper Gila River Basin.in D. Gori and M. Schumann, editors. Gila River-Arizona Water Settlement Act Ecological Flows Report. The Nature Conservancy in New Mexico, Santa Fe.CITATION FOR FULL REPORT: Gori, D., M.S. Cooper, E.S. Soles, M. Stone, R. Morrison, T.F. Turner, D.L. Propst, G. Garfin, M. Switanek, H. Chang, S. Bassett, J. Haney, D. Lyons, M. Horner, C.N. Dahm, J.K. Frey, K. Kindscher, H.A. Walker, and M.T. Bogan. Gila River Flow Needs Assessment. A report by The Nature Conservancy.
• Garfin, G. M., Franco, G., Blanco, H., Comrie, A. C., Gonzalez, P., Piechota, T., Smyth, R., & Waskom, R. (2014). Ch. 20: Southwest. In Climate Change Impacts in the United States: The Third National Climate Assessment. J.M. Melillo, T.C. Richmond, and G.W. Yohe (eds.)(pp 462-486, doi:10.7930/J08G8HMN). Washington, D.C.: U.S. Global Change Research Program.
• Garfin, G. M., Franco, G., Blanco, H., Comrie, A., Gonzalez, P., Piechota, T., Smyth, R., & Waskom, R. (2014). Southwest. In National Climate Assessment(pp 462-486). Washington, DC: U.S. Global Change Research Program.
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  The Southwest is the hottest and driest region in the United States, where the availability of water has defined its landscapes, history of human settlement, and modern economy. Climate changes pose challenges for an already parched region that is expected to get hotter and, in its southern half, significantly drier. Increased heat and changes to rain and snowpack will send ripple effects throughout the region’s critical agriculture sector, affecting the lives and economies of 56 million people – a population that is expected to increase 68% by 2050, to 94 million. Severe and sustained drought will stress water sources, already over-utilized in many areas, forcing increasing competition among farmers, energy producers, urban dwellers, and plant and animal life for the region’s most precious resource.
• Overpeck, J., Garfin, G., Jardine, A., Busch, D., Cayan, D., Dettinger, M., Fleishman, E., Gershunov, A., MacDonald, G., Redmond, K., Travis, W., & Udall, B. (2013). Summary for Decision Makers. In Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment(pp 1-20). Washington, DC: Island Press.
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  J. Overpeck, G. Garfin, A. Jardine, D. Busch, D. Cayan, M. Dettinger, E. Fleishman, A. Gershunov, G. MacDonald, K. Redmond, W. Travis and B. Udall. 2013. Summary for Decision Makers. In G. Garfin, A. Jardine, R. Merideth, M. Black, and S. LeRoy (eds.) Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: Island Press, pp. 1-20. Alternative URL for this Chapter: http://swcarr.arizona.edu/chapter/one
• Wilder, M. O., Garfin, G. M., Ganster, P., Eakin, H., Lankao, P. R., Lara, A. C., Mumme, S. P., Neri, C., & Arriola, F. M. (2013). Impacts of Future Climate Change in the Southwest on Border Communities. In National Climate Assessment Southwest Region Report(pp 340-384). Washington, D.C.: Island Press.
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  I was invited to be the coordinating lead author on this chapter on the vulnerability of U.S.-Mexico border communities to climate change and impacts. The lead authors were encouraged to assemble a large and representative team of authors for each chapter, to be intentionally similar to an IPCC-style of expert report. Thus, this author team is large, with people from Arizona, Colorado, California, Baja California, and Mexico City. I was the primary author on this chapter with significant contribution from Gregg Garfin and targeted input from the other co-authors.
• Wilder, M. O., Garfin, G. M., Ganster, P., Eakin, H., Lankao, P. R., Lara, A. C., Mumme, S. P., Neri, C., & Arriola, F. M. (2013). Impacts of Future Climate Change in the Southwest on Border Communities. In National Climate Assessment Southwest Region Report. Washington, D.C.: Island Press.
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  I was invited to be the coordinating lead author on this chapter on the vulnerability of U.S.-Mexico border communities to climate change and impacts. The lead authors were encouraged to assemble a large and representative team of authors for each chapter, to be intentionally similar to an IPCC-style of expert report. Thus, this author team is large, with people from Arizona, Colorado, California, Baja California, and Mexico City. I was the primary author on this chapter with significant contribution from Gregg Garfin and targeted input from the other co-authors.
• Wilder, M., Garfin, G., Ganster, P., Eakin, H., Romero-Lankao, P., Lara-Valencia, F., Cortez-Lara, A. A., Mumme, S., Neri, C., & Munoz-Arriola, F. (2013). Climate Change and U.S.-Mexico Border Communities. In Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment(pp 340-384). Washington, DC: Island Press.
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  Garfin, G., A. Jardine, R. Merideth, M. Black, and S. LeRoy (eds.), 2013. Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: A Report Prepared for the National Climate Assessment. Washington, DC: Island Press, 528 p.Alternative URL for this chapter: http://swcarr.arizona.edu/chapter/16
• Garfin, G. (2012). Climate change challenges and solutions for water managers. In Shared Borders, Shared Waters: Arizona, Israeli-Palestinian and Colorado River Basin Water Challenges(pp 187-202). CRC Press/Taylor & Francis Group, in cooperation with UNESCO-IHE.
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  Editor(s): Megdal, SB | Varady, RG | Eden, S
• Garfin, G. (2012). Desert Water: Paradoxes and Trade-Offs. In Ground|Water: The Art, Design, and Science of a Dry River(pp 30-35). Tucson, AZ: Confluence Center for Creative Inquiry.
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  Editor(s): McMahon, E | Weinstein, B | Monson, A
• Garfin, G., & Jardine, A. (2011). Overview. In Southwest Climate Assessment Report. Technical Input to the National Climate Assessment. Southwest Climate Alliance.
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  Editor(s): Garfin, G | Overpeck, J | Jardine, A

Journals/Publications

• Barbosa, A. C., Stahle, D. W., Burnette, D. J., Torbenson, M., Cook, E. R., Bunkers, M. J., Garfin, G., & Villalba, R. (2019). METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH FROST RINGS IN ROCKY MOUNTAIN BRISTLECONE PINE AT MT. GOLIATH, COLORADO. TREE-RING RESEARCH, 75(2), 101-115.
• Carrillo, C. M., Castro, C. L., Garfin, G. M., Chang, H., & Bukovsky, M. S. (2014). Pacific SST-related teleconnective influences on North American monsoon precipitation within North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) models. International Journal of Climatology.
• Carrillo, C., Castro, C. L., Garfin, G. M., Chang, H. I., Bukovsky, M. S., & Mearns, L. O. (2017). Pacific SST-related influences on North American monsoon precipitation within NARCCAP models.. International Journal of Climatology.
• Garfin, G. M. (2018). Managing for change in the Sonoran Desert: What are we doing? What can we do?. Sonorensis.
• Garfin, G. M., Scott, C. A., Varady, R. G., Wilder, M. O., Lemos, M. C., Kirchhoff, C., & Gerlak, A. K. (2016). Summary and synthesis: The potential of metrics for assessing adaptive capacity and water security. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability.
• Leroy, S., Garfin, G. M., & Black, M. (2015). Anticipating Cascading Impacts from Extreme Heat, Drought in the Southwest U.S.. EOS: Transactions of the American Geophysical Union.
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  Projections of longer and more severe heat waves and droughts, and decreasing surface water reliability in the Southwest U.S. point to increasing risk of climate-related impacts. The combination of constrained water resources during drought with episodes of extreme summer heat can disrupt energy production and transmission, leading to impact cascades affecting millions of people in Southwest cities. These impacts have ramifications for public health and safety, transportation, and food supply.
• Muth, M., Anderson, K., Brown, D., Brown, T., Delgado, E., Garfin, G. M., Hadwen, T., Murphy, V., Pascual Ramirez, R., Pugh, B., Robles Gutierrez, J. H., Heim, R., Rippey, B., & Svoboda, M. (2016). Advancing preparedness and response to drought and wildfires through North American transboundary collaboration.. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
• Schwartz, M. W., Hiers, J. K., Davis, F. W., Garfin, G. M., Jackson, S., Terando, A. J., Woodhouse, C. A., Morelli, T. L., Williamson, M. A., & Brunson, M. W. (2016). Developing a translational ecology workforce. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment.
• Varady, R. G., Martin, F., Vicuna, S., Garfin, G. M., & Zuniga Teran, A. A. (2016). Context setting: Adaptive management and water security in key global regions. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability.
• Wall, T. U., McNie, E. C., & Garfin, G. M. (2016). Insights from Use-Inspired and Translational Climate-Science Research Programs in the United States. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment.
• Bukovsky, M. S., Chang, H., Garfin, G. M., Castro, C. L., & Carrillo, C. M. (2018). Pacific SST-related teleconnective influences on North American monsoon precipitation within North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) models. International Journal of Climatology.
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  doi.org/10.1002/joc.5561
• Carrillo, C. M., Castro, C. L., Garfin, G., Chang, H., Bukovsky, M. S., & Mearns, L. O. (2018). Pacific sea surface temperature related influences on North American monsoon precipitation within North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program models. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 38(11), 4189-4210.
• Garfin, G. M., Leroy, S., & Jones, H. (2018). A Heat-Health Regional Pilot in the Paso del Norte Region. Southern Climate Monitor, 8(1), 2-6.
• Mearns, L. O., Bukovsky, M. S., Chang, H. I., Garfin, G. M., Castro, C. L., & Carrillo, C. M. (2018). Pacific sea surface temperature related influences on North American monsoon precipitation within North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program models. International Journal of Climatology.
• Brunson, M. W., Williamson, M. A., Morelli, T. L., Woodhouse, C. A., Terando, A. J., Jackson, S., Garfin, G. M., Davis, F. W., Hiers, J. K., & Schwartz, M. W. (2016). Developing a translational ecology workforce. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. doi:doi: 10.1002/fee.1732
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  Schwartz, M.W., J.K. Hiers, F.W. Davis, G. M. Garfin, S.T Jackson, A.J. Terando, C.A. Woodhouse, T.L. Morelli, M.A. Williamson, M.W. Brunson. 2017. Developing a translational ecology workforce. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 15, 587–596, doi: 10.1002/fee.1732.
• Enquist, C., Jackson, S., Garfin, G. M., Davis, F. W., Gerber, L., Littell, J., Tank, J., Terando, A., Wall, T., Halpern, B., Hiers, J. K., Morelli, T. L., McNie, E., Stephenson, N. L., Williamson, M. A., Woodhouse, C. A., Yung, L., Brunson, M., Hall, K., , Hallett, L. M., et al. (2017). Foundations of Translational Ecology. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 15(10), 541-550. doi:doi: 10.1002/fee.1733
• Garfin, G. M. (2017). Advancing preparedness and response to drought and wildfires through north American transboundary collaboration. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
• Jackson, S. T., Enquist, C., & Garfin, G. M. (2017). Special Issue: Translational Ecology. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 15(10), 537-612.
• Jackson, S. T., Garfin, G. M., & Enquist, C. A. (2017). Toward an effective practice of translational ecology. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 15(10), 540--540.
• Muth, M., Anderson, K., Brown, D., Brown, T., Delgado, E. d., Garfin, G., Hadwen, T., Murphy, V., Reynaldo, ., Ramirez, P., Pugh, B., Hector, J., Gutierrez, R., Heim, R., Rippey, B., & Svoboda, M. (2017). ADVANCING PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE TO DROUGHT AND WILDFIRES THROUGH NORTH AMERICAN TRANSBOUNDARY COLLABORATION. BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 98(3), E557-E560.
• Schwartz, M. W., Hiers, J. K., Davis, F. W., Garfin, G. M., Jackson, S. T., Terando, A. J., Woodhouse, C. A., Morelli, T. L., Williamson, M. A., & Brunson, M. W. (2017). Developing a translational ecology workforce. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 15(10), 587--596.
• Shaw, M. R., Schwartz, M. W., Safford, H. D., Regan, C., Ray, A. J., Pairis, A., Nydick, K., Moritz, M., Lawson, D. M., Hallett, L. M., Hall, K., Brunson, M., Yung, L., Woodhouse, C. A., Williamson, M. A., Stephenson, N. L., McNie, E., Morelli, T. L., Hiers, J. K., , Halpern, B., et al. (2017). Foundations of Translational Ecology. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment. doi:doi: 10.1002/fee.1733
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  Enquist, C.A.F, S.T. Jackson, G. M. Garfin, F.W. Davis, L.R. Gerber, J.A. Littell,J.L. Tank, A.J. Terando, T.U. Wall, B. Halpern, J.K. Hiers, T.L. Morelli, E. McNie, N.L. Stephenson, M.A. Williamson, C.A. Woodhouse, L. Yung, M.W. Brunson, K.R. Hall, L.M. Hallett, D.M. Lawson, M.A. Moritz, K. Nydick, A. Pairis, A.J. Ray, C. Regan, H.D. Safford, M.W. Schwartz, and M.R. Shaw. 2017. Foundations of translational ecology. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 15, 541–550, doi: 10.1002/fee.1733.
• Wall, T. U., McNie, E., & Garfin, G. M. (2017). Use-inspired science: making science usable by and useful to decision makers. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, 15(10), 551--559.
• Garfin, G. M. (2016). Adaptive management and water security in a global context: definitions, concepts, and examples. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability.
• Garfin, G. M. (2016). Supporting adaptation decisions through scenario planning: Enabling the effective use of multiple methods. Climate Risk Management.
• Garfin, G. M., & Leroy, S. (2016). Developing an Integrated Heat-Health Information System for Long-term Resilience to Climate and Weather Extremes in the El Paso-Juárez-Las Cruces Region. Association of Natural Resource Extension Professionals Newsletter.
• Garfin, G. M., Scott, C. A., Wilder, M. O., Varady, R. G., & Merideth, R. (2016). Metrics for assessing adaptive capacity and water security: common challenges, diverging contexts, emerging consensus. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 21, 86-89.
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  The rapid pace of climate and environmental changes requiressome degree of adaptation, to forestall or avoid severeimpacts. Adaptive capacity and water security are conceptsused to guide the ways in which resource managers plan forand manage change. Yet the assessment of adaptive capacityand water security remains elusive, due to flaws in guidingconcepts, paucity or inadequacy of data, and multipledifficulties in measuring the effectiveness of managementprescriptions at scales relevant to decision-making. We drawon conceptual framings and empirical findings of the thirteenarticles in this special issue and seek to respond to keyquestions with respect to metrics for the measurement,governance, information accessibility, and robustness of theknowledge produced in conjunction with ideas related toadaptive capacity and water security. Three overarchingconclusions from this body of work are (a) systematic cross-comparisons of metrics, using the same models andindicators, are needed to validate the reliability of evaluationinstruments for adaptive capacity and water security, (b) therobustness of metrics to applications across multiple scales ofanalysis can be enhanced by a ‘metrics plus’ approach thatcombines well-designed quantitative metrics with in-depthqualitative methods that provide rich context and localknowledge, and (c) changes in the governance of science–policy can address deficits in public participation, fosterknowledge exchange, and encourage the co-development ofadaptive processes and approaches (e.g., risk-based framing)that move beyond development and use of static indicatorsand metrics.
• Garfin, G. M., Scott, C. A., Wilder, M. O., Varady, R. G., & Merideth, R. (2016). Metrics for assessing adaptive capacity: common challenges, diverging contexts, emerging consensus.. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 21(August), 86-89. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2016.11.007
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  Abstract:The rapid pace of climate and environmental changes requires some degree of adaptation, to forestall or avoid severe impacts. Adaptive capacity and water security are concepts used to guide the ways in which resource managers plan for and manage change. Yet the assessment of adaptive capacity and water security remains elusive, due to flaws in guiding concepts, paucity or inadequacy of data, and multiple difficulties in measuring the effectiveness of management prescriptions at scales relevant to decision-making. We draw on conceptual framings and empirical findings of the thirteen articles in this special issue and seek to respond to key questions with respect to metrics for the measurement, governance, information accessibility, and robustness of the knowledge produced in conjunction with ideas related to adaptive capacity and water security. Three overarching conclusions from this body of work are (a) systematic cross-comparisons of metrics, using the same models and indicators, are needed to validate the reliability of evaluation instruments for adaptive capacity and water security, (b) the robustness of metrics to applications across multiple scales of analysis can be enhanced by a ‘metrics plus’ approach that combines well-designed quantitative metrics with in-depth qualitative methods that provide rich context and local knowledge, and (c) changes in the governance of science–policy can address deficits in public participation, foster knowledge exchange, and encourage the co-development of adaptive processes and approaches (e.g., risk-based framing) that move beyond development and use of static indicators and metrics.
• Garfin, G. M., Wilder, M. O., & Merideth, R. (2016). Environmental change assessments. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 21.
• LeRoy, S., Garfin, G. M., & Black, M. (2016). Anticipating Cascading Effects from Climate Extremes. EOS Trans. AGU, 97. doi:doi:10.1029/2016EO048971
• Merideth, R., Varady, R. G., Wilder, M. O., Scott, C. A., & Garfin, G. M. (2016). Metrics for assessing adaptive capacity and water security: common challenges, diverging contexts, emerging consensus. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 21, 86-89. doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2016.11.007
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  Garfin, G.M., C.A. Scott, M. Wilder, R.G. Varady, R. Merideth. 2016. Metrics for assessing adaptive capacity and water security: Common challenges, diverging contexts, emerging consensus. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 21: 86-89, doi: 10.1016/j.cosust.2016.11.007.
• Star, J., Rowland, E., Black, M. E., Enquist, C. A., Garfin, G. M., Hawkins-Hoffman, C., Hartmann, H., Jacobs, K. L., Moss, R. H., & Waple, A. M. (2016). Supporting Adaptation Decisions through Scenario Planning: Enabling the Effective Use of Multiple Methods. Climate Risk Management, 13, 88-94. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2016.08.001
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  Scenario planning is a technique used to inform decision-making under uncertainty, and is increasingly applied in the field of climate change adaptation and policy. This paper describes applications that combine previously distinct scenario methods in new and innovative ways. It draws on numerous recent independent case studies to illustrate emerging practices, such as far stronger connections between researcher-driven and participatory approaches and cycling between exploratory and normative perspectives. The paper concludes with a call for greater support for, and collaboration among, practitioners with the argument that mixed methods are most effective for decision-making in the context of climate change challenges.
• Varady, R. G., Zuniga Teran, A. A., Garfin, G. M., Martin, F., & Vicuna, S. (2016). Adaptive management and water security in a global context: definitions, concepts, and examples.. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, 21, 70-77. doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2016.11.001
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  Conventional water governance that centralizes decision-making and focuses on increasing supply has sometimes led to ecological degradation and inequitable outcomes. As a corrective, Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) incorporates sustainability principles that integrate social, ecological, and infrastructural systems. However, this governance mode still does not address complex issues for an uncertain future, and fails to offer a clear goal. Adaptive management, another approach, relies on public participation and active knowledge exchange between scientists and policy-makers; it also incorporates uncertainty into decision-making. The concept of water security emerged subsequently to address the lack of a clear goal for water management. In this paper, we set into context the terms ‘adaptive management’ and ‘water security’ and review their evolution and their critiques. Both concepts require measurement and monitoring of outcomes in order to determine progress toward established goals so as to guide decision-making. We discuss the challenges and different ways of measuring water security and offer a representative list of potential indicators. The essay provides some examples of adaptive-management studies across the world and discusses adaptive management as it relates to the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Our concluding remarks reflect on present challenges, practical limitations, and promising ideas for a future type of water governance that is participatory, equitable, and adaptive.
• Zuniga Teran, A. A., Garfin, G. M., Vicuna, S., Martin, F., & Varady, R. G. (2016). Context setting: Adaptive management and water security in key global regions. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability.
• Degomez, T. E., Garfin, G. M., Degomez, T. E., & Garfin, G. M. (2015). Insects, Diseases and Abiotic Disorders in Southwest Forests and Woodlands.. Arizona Cooperative Extension Bulletin, 1-5.
• Garfin, G. M., & Brugger, J. (2015). Training Climate Science Integrators. Southern Climate Monitor, 5(6).
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  Publication in non-peer-reviewed climate newsletter
• Garfin, G. M., Black, M., & Rowland, E. (2015). Advancing scenario planning for climate decision making. EOS: Transactions of the American Geophysical Union, 96. doi:doi:10.1029/2015EO037933
• Garfin, G. M. (2014). The imperatives and challenge of addressing climate risk in Cooperative Extension communities: an opportunity or an obstacle to Extension work?. Rural Connections, 8, 17-20.
• Garfin, G. M., Krautman, A., Shafer, M., & Brown, D. (2014). Rio Grande/Rio Bravo (RGB) Climate Impacts and Outlook report. Rio Grande/Rio Bravo (RGB) Climate Impacts and Outlook report, 1(1, 2), 7, 7.
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  I co-developed and published the first two issues of an experimental climate services bulletin for the bi-national Rio Grande River Basin. The bulletin is in English and Spanish versions.
• Apel, M. B., Mostafa, A. M., Garfin, G. M., Brandau, W. K., Brandau, W. K., Garfin, G. M., Mostafa, A. M., & Apel, M. B. (2013). Externships in sustainability program as an outreach tool for Extension.. Journal of Extension, 51(2), 2TOT7.
• Apel, M., Mostafa, A., Brandau, B., & Garfin, G. (2013). Externships in sustainability program as an outreach tool for extension. Journal of Extension, 51(2).
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  Abstract: In 2011, Arizona Cooperative Extension implemented Externships in Sustainability, a program in which undergraduate students conduct community-based sustainability projects. In contrast to internships, in which students shadow a professional, externship students apply their skills to community outreach. Extension faculty proposed projects and recruited undergraduates from within their communities to execute the projects. Students were given responsibility for planning, implementation, and Extension. Agents, students, and communities have benefited from improved relationships between the university and communities, and through rainwater harvesting, community gardens, and other projects to increase resilience. Extension programs in other states could adopt this model to reap similar benefits. © 2013 Extension Journal Inc.
• Cross, M. S., Mccarthy, P. D., Garfin, G., Gori, D., & Enquist, C. A. (2013). Accelerating Adaptation of Natural Resource Management to Address Climate Change. Conservation Biology, 27(1), 4-13.
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  PMID: 23110636;PMCID: PMC3562478;Abstract: Natural resource managers are seeking tools to help them address current and future effects of climate change. We present a model for collaborative planning aimed at identifying ways to adapt management actions to address the effects of climate change in landscapes that cross public and private jurisdictional boundaries. The Southwest Climate Change Initiative (SWCCI) piloted the Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) planning approach at workshops in 4 southwestern U.S. landscapes. This planning approach successfully increased participants' self-reported capacity to address climate change by providing them with a better understanding of potential effects and guiding the identification of solutions. The workshops fostered cross-jurisdictional and multidisciplinary dialogue on climate change through active participation of scientists and managers in assessing climate change effects, discussing the implications of those effects for determining management goals and activities, and cultivating opportunities for regional coordination on adaptation of management plans. Facilitated application of the ACT framework advanced group discussions beyond assessing effects to devising options to mitigate the effects of climate change on specific species, ecological functions, and ecosystems. Participants addressed uncertainty about future conditions by considering more than one climate-change scenario. They outlined opportunities and identified next steps for implementing several actions, and local partnerships have begun implementing actions and conducting additional planning. Continued investment in adaptation of management plans and actions to address the effects of climate change in the southwestern United States and extension of the approaches used in this project to additional landscapes are needed if biological diversity and ecosystem services are to be maintained in a rapidly changing world. © 2012 Society for Conservation Biology.
• Cross, M., McCarthy, P., Garfin, G., Gori, D., & Enquist, C. (2013). Accelerating climate change adaptation for natural resources in southwestern United States. Conservation Biology, 27, 4-18.
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  Natural resource managers are seeking tools to help them address current and future effects of climate change. We present a model for collaborative planning aimed at identifying ways to adapt management actions to address the effects of climate change in landscapes that cross public and private jurisdictional boundaries. The Southwest Climate Change Initiative (SWCCI) piloted the Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) planning approach at workshops in 4 southwestern U.S. landscapes. This planning approach successfully increased participants’ self-reported capacity to address climate change by providing them with a better understanding of potential effects and guiding the identification of solutions. The workshops fostered cross-jurisdictional and multidisciplinary dialogue on climate change through active participation of scientists and managers in assessing climate change effects, discussing the implications of those effects for determining management goals and activities, and cultivating opportunities for regional coordination on adaptation of management plans. Facilitated application of the ACT framework advanced group discussions beyond assessing effects to devising options to mitigate the effects of climate change on specific species, ecological functions, and ecosystems. Participants addressed uncertainty about future conditions by considering more than one climate-change scenario. They outlined opportunities and identified next steps for implementing several actions, and local partnerships have begun implementing actions and conducting additional planning. Continued investment in adaptation of management plans and actions to address the effects of climate change in the southwestern United States and extension of the approaches used in this project to additional landscapes are needed if biological diversity and ecosystem services are to be maintained in a rapidly changing world.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013). Accelerating Adaptation of Natural Resource Management to Address Climate Change. Conservation Biology.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013). Externships in sustainability program as an outreach tool for extension. Journal of Extension.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013). Rethinking integrated assessments and management projects in the Americas. Environmental Science and Policy.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013). Transboundary adaptive management to reduce climate-change vulnerability in the western U.S.-Mexico border region. Environmental Science and Policy.
• Garfin, G. M., Romero Lankao, P., & Varady, R. (2013). Rethinking integrated assessments and management projects in the Americas. Environmental Science & Policy, 26, 1-5.
• Garfin, G., Lankao, P. R., & Varady, R. (2013). Rethinking integrated assessments and management projects in the Americas. Environmental Science and Policy, 26, 1-5.
• Liverman, D., & Garfin, G. M. (2013). A Warning from the American Southwest: It's Getting Hotter. The Washington Spectator, 39(10), 1-4.
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  D. Liverman and G. Garfin. 2013. A Warning from the American Southwest: It’s Getting Hotter. The Washington Spectator 39(10): 1-4. (October 1, 2013) http://www.washingtonspectator.org/index.php/Environment/a-warning-from-the-american-southwest-its-getting-hotter.html#.UmBgmFCsiM5
• Liverman, D., & Garfin, G. M. (2013). A hotspot for change: causes and consequences of global warming in the Southwest.. Washington Monthly.
• Scott, C. A., F., M., Varady, R. G., Tiessen, H., J., M., Garfin, G. M., Wilder, M. O., L., F., N., P. P., & Montana, E. (2013). Water Security and Adaptive Management in the Arid Americas.. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 2(103), 280-289.
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  Article was accepted in 2012. Will be part of Annals' special issue on geographies of water.;Your Role: Contributing co-author ;Collaborative with graduate student: Yes;Collaborative with faculty member in unit: Yes;Collaborative with faculty member at UA: Yes;Other collaborative: Yes;Specify other collaborative: Co-authored with colleagues in Chile and Mexico.;
• Scott, C. A., Meza, F. J., Varady, R. G., Tiessen, H., McEvoy, J., Garfin, G. M., Farfan, L. M., Wilder, M., & Pineda Pablos, N. (2013). Water Security and Adaptive Management in the Arid Americas. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 103(2), 280-289.
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  Scott, C.A., F.J. Meza, R.G. Varady, H. Tiessen, J. McEvoy, G.M. Garfin, L.M. Farfan, M. Wilder, and N. Pineda-Pablos. 2013. Water Security and Adaptive Management in the Arid Americas. Annals of the Association of American Geographers 103: 280-289.Societal use of freshwater, ecosystems’ dependence on water, and hydroclimatic processes interact dynamically. Changes in any of these subsystems can cause unpredictable feedback, resulting in water insecurity for humans and ecosystems. By drawing on resilience theory, we extend current productive–destructive framings of water security to better address societal–ecosystem–hydroclimatic (SEH) interactions, dynamics, and uncertainties that drive insecurity but also offer response opportunities. Strengthening water security in this sense requires strategies that (1) conceptually and practically interlink SEH subsystems; (2) recognize extreme conditions and thresholds; and (3) plan for water security via structured exchanges between researchers and decision makers in ways that account for institutions and governance frameworks. Through scrutiny of case evidence from water-scarce regions in western North America and the Central Andes, we assert that ensuring water security requires adaptive management (interactive planning that accounts for uncertainties, initiates responses, and iteratively assesses outcomes). Researchers and stakeholders from these regions are pursuing a multiyear series of workshops that promote science-based decision making while factoring in the political implications of water planning. This study briefly reviews an emerging water security initiative for the arid Americas that aims to enhance understanding of adaptive approaches to strengthen water security. Finally, by synthesizing efforts in the arid Americas, we offer insights for other water-insecure regions.
• Varady, R. G., Scott, C. A., Wilder, M., Morehouse, B., Pablos, N. P., & Garfin, G. M. (2013). Transboundary adaptive management to reduce climate-change vulnerability in the western U.S.-Mexico border region. Environmental Science and Policy, 26, 102-112.
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  Abstract: Climate change, variability, shifting demands for freshwater, and allocation of scarce water among multiple human and ecosystem needs comprise a set of interlinked adaptation challenges. This paper addresses how organizations and stakeholders can build adaptive capacity and foster adaptive management in a complex but environmentally significant international transboundary region in order to better confront the impacts of global change. To strengthen adaptive capacity, integrated assessments address coupled natural and human drivers of, and responses to hydroclimatic variability, economic globalization, expanding urbanization, and related global-change pressures. However, such assessments have often presumed a degree of uniformity of institutional arrangements. Two allied aims of the paper are to (1) examine the complexity and heterogeneity of institutions in transboundary regions and (2) illustrate how scientists, managers, and other regional stakeholders use collaboration and integrated assessment to confront climate and water challenges. This paper's insights are based on a research initiative undertaken over more than a decade. Over this period, a binational, interdisciplinary team has conducted integrated-assessment research and established policy dialogue in the Arizona-Sonora section of the U.S.-Mexico border region. The initiative's suite of projects addresses multiple aspects of water security and have involved key U.S. and Mexican academic institutions that act as boundary organizations, bringing climate scientists together with public and private-sector stakeholders to strengthen adaptive-water-management capacity across national borders. The analysis demonstrates that transboundary adaptive management is significantly strengthened by: binationality and transborder collaboration; involvement of multiple institutions in both countries; understanding of climate information use by water-resources managers; development of easily accessible, easily understandable tools and information products; expansion of binational communities of practice and effectively addressing challenges to their functioning; and, above all, continuity of effort. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.
• Varady, R. G., Scott, C. A., Wilder, M., Morehouse, B., Pineda Pablos, N., & Garfin, G. M. (2013). Transboundary adaptive management to reduce climate-change vulnerability in the western U.S.-Mexico border region. Environmental Science & Policy, 26, 102-112.
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  Varady, R.G., C.A. Scott, M. Wilder, B. Morehouse, N. Pineda Pablos, G.M. Garfin, 2013. Transboundary adaptive management to reduce climate-change vulnerability in the western U.S.–Mexico border region. Environmental Science and Policy 26:102-112. Climate change, variability, shifting demands for freshwater, and allocation of scarce water among multiple human and ecosystem needs comprise a set of interlinked adaptation challenges. This paper addresses how organizations and stakeholders can build adaptive capacity and foster adaptive management in a complex but environmentally significant international transboundary region in order to better confront the impacts of global change. To strengthen adaptive capacity, integrated assessments address coupled natural and human drivers of, and responses to hydroclimatic variability, economic globalization, expanding urbanization, and related global-change pressures. However, such assessments have often presumed a degree of uniformity of institutional arrangements. Two allied aims of the paper are to (1) examine the complexity and heterogeneity of institutions in transboundary regions and (2) illustrate how scientists, managers, and other regional stakeholders use collaboration and integrated assessment to confront climate and water challenges. This paper's insights are based on a research initiative undertaken over more than a decade. Over this period, a binational, interdisciplinary team has conducted integrated-assessment research and established policy dialogue in the Arizona–Sonora section of the U.S.–Mexico border region. The initiative's suite of projects addresses multiple aspects of water security and have involved key U.S. and Mexican academic institutions that act as boundary organizations, bringing climate scientists together with public and private-sector stakeholders to strengthen adaptive-water-management capacity across national borders. The analysis demonstrates that transboundary adaptive management is significantly strengthened by: binationality and transborder collaboration; involvement of multiple institutions in both countries; understanding of climate information use by water-resources managers; development of easily accessible, easily understandable tools and information products; expansion of binational communities of practice and effectively addressing challenges to their functioning; and, above all, continuity of effort.
• Garfin, G., Jardine, A., Merideth, R., Black, M., & (eds.), O. J. (2012). Chapter 1: Summary for Decision Makers[G. Garfin, A. Jardine, R. Merideth, M. Black and J. Overpeck (eds.)]. Tucson, AZ: Southwest Climate Alliance. June 2012 Southwest Climate Summit Version. (peer-reviewed). Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: a Technical Report Prepared for the U.S. National Climate Assessment. A report by the Southwest Climate Alliance.
• Cole, K. L., Ironside, K., Eischeid, J., Garfin, G., Duffy, P. B., & Toney, C. (2011). Past and ongoing shifts in Joshua tree distribution support future modeled range contraction. Ecological Applications, 21(1), 137-149.
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  PMID: 21516893;Abstract: The future distribution of the Joshua tree (Yucca brevifolia) is projected by combining a geostatistical analysis of 20th-century climates over its current range, future modeled climates, and paleoecological data showing its response to a past similar climate change. As climate rapidly warmed ;11 700 years ago, the range of Joshua tree contracted, leaving only the populations near what had been its northernmost limit. Its ability to spread northward into new suitable habitats after this time may have been inhibited by the somewhat earlier extinction of megafaunal dispersers, especially the Shasta ground sloth. We applied a model of climate suitability for Joshua tree, developed from its 20th-century range and climates, to future climates modeled through a set of six individual general circulation models (GCM) and one suite of 22 models for the late 21st century. All distribution data, observed climate data, and future GCM results were scaled to spatial grids of ;1 km and ;4 km in order to facilitate application within this topographically complex region. All of the models project the future elimination of Joshua tree throughout most of the southern portions of its current range. Although estimates of future monthly precipitation differ between the models, these changes are outweighed by large increases in temperature common to all the models. Only a few populations within the current range are predicted to be sustainable. Several models project significant potential future expansion into new areas beyond the current range, but the species' Historical and current rates of dispersal would seem to prevent natural expansion into these new areas. Several areas are predicted to be potential sites for relocation/ assisted migration. This project demonstrates how information from paleoecology and modern ecology can be integrated in order to understand ongoing processes and future distributions. © 2011 by the Ecological Society of America.
• Garfin, G. M. (2011). CHANGE: Climate and hydrology academic network for governance and the environment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
• Garfin, G. M. (2011). Climate-friendly park employees: The Intermountain Region's climate change training assessment. Park Science.
• Garfin, G. M. (2011). Human Pyrogeography: A New Synergy of Fire, Climate and People is Reshaping Ecosystems across the Globe. Geography Compass.
• Garfin, G. M. (2011). Past and ongoing shifts in Joshua tree distribution support future modeled range contraction. Ecological Applications.
• Garfin, G. M. (2011). The George Melendez Wright climate change fellowship program: Promoting innovative park science for resource management. Park Science.
• Garfin, G. M., O, C. C., Garfin, G. M., Falk, D., & Swetnam, T. (2011). Human Pyrogeography: A New Synergy of Fire, Climate and People is Reshaping Ecosystems across the Globe. Geography Compass, 5(6), 329-350.
• Garfin, G., Hartmann, H., Crescioni-Benitez, M., Ely, T., Keck, J., Kendrick, J. W., Legg, K., & Wise, J. (2011). Climate-friendly park employees: The Intermountain Region's climate change training assessment. Park Science, 28(1).
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  Abstract: The National Park Service Intermountain Region (IMR) partnered with the University of Arizona to assess climate change training needs for more than 5,000 IMR employees. We identified baseline climate knowledge characteristics: ability to discern between climate variability and trends, understanding of key phenomena (e.g., El Niño), correct identification of observed impacts, but little knowledge of climate projections for the region. Employees identified challenges for implementing a training program: adequate communication technology, adequate funding, clear guidance on actions and policy changes, and communicating with climate change skeptics. Employees recommended that training connect global changes to regional impacts and local solutions and demonstrate relevance to job duties. Interviewees preferred interactive, hands-on learning experiences, but agreed to use electronic media given budget constraints. They identified information overload as a problem, suggesting information be packaged in frequently asked questions, briefs, and videos. We recommend a modular program, leveraging existing, well-vetted information resources. We evaluated more than 150 Web sites and found online training for climate change literacy, but a lack of training on mitigation and adaptation. We present a training decision tree and sample curricula.
• Garfin, G., Hartmann, H., Crescioni-Benitez, M., Ely, T., Keck, J., Kendrick, J., Legg, K., & Wise, J. (2011). Climate-Friendly Park Employees: The Intermountain Region s climate change training assessment. Park Science, 28(1), 30-36.
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  THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION (IMR) OF THE NATIONAL Park System is one of the most diverse areas administered by the National Park Service (NPS), with more than 90 park units encompassing coastal, desert, mountain, and prairie ecosystems. Climate change and vanishing landscapes were among the top five IMR challenges enumerated in an internal report (NPS 2009). To prepare for these challenges, the Intermountain Region engaged University of Arizona scientists to assess needs for workshops and training to provide IMR employees with information they could use to manage resources, mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, and plan for adaptation to climate changes. University and NPS investigators refined the project scope and agreed upon the following goals: (1) assess the climate change knowledge of a sample of IMR employees; (2) determine the content, design, and communication media of potential training modules for employees; (3) develop a road map linking current and expected climate change information needs; and (4) determine how best to leverage existing climate change information resources and reconcile information from different sources.
• Garfin, G., Lee, N., Magana, V., Stewart, R., Rolfe, T., & McEvoy, J. (2011). International Workshop for CHANGE: Climate and Hydrology Academic Network for Governance and the Environment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 92(8), 1045-1048.
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  doi:10.1175/2010BAMS2927.1
• Garfin, G., Lee, N., Magaña, V., Stewart, R., Rolfe, J. T., & McEvoy, J. (2011). CHANGE: Climate and hydrology academic network for governance and the environment. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 92(8), 1045-1048.
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  Abstract: The international workshop for change: climate and hydrology academic network for governance and the environment, held on March 5-6, 2009, Mexico, was aimed to create robust, cooperative water management, policies, and governance. The workshop addresses climate variability and change to ensure secure water for continued economic development and environmental health in Mexico, the US, and Canada's border regions. Invited talks addressed in the workshop's included North American water availability, climate change, and implications of land use and population growth for drought vulnerability and bilateral treaties. Speakers highlighted the need for more frequent and meaningful communication between scientists and stakeholders, and the need to increase opportunities to exchange disciplinary insights and data. Workshop participants noted the critical need to support communication to improve relevance to policy and resource management decisions.
• Garfin, G., Norby, L., Graumlich, L., & Watkins, T. (2011). The George Melendez Wright Climate Change Fellowship Program: Promoting innovative park science for resource management. Park Science, 28(2), 47-51.
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  Abstract: In 2010 the National Park Service Climate Change Response Program created the George Melendez Wright Climate Change Fellowship to foster new and innovative research on climate change impacts in protected areas, and to promote national parks as laboratories for research on climate change. The program aims to increase the use of scientific knowledge to further resource management in parks and deepen the utility of place-based science for society in national parks. In its first year the program funded 22 proposals by graduate students from across the country. Research in progress covers an extensive variety of topics, from examination of how genetic factors mediate climate change effects in vulnerable tree species to ethnographic studies of the effects of environmental change on the practices of subsistence fisheries in coastal preserves and monuments. The geographic and ecosystem extent of projects ranges from Hawaiian cloud forests and Alaskan alpine environments, to forests in the Intermountain West, to coastal wetlands in Louisiana. Most program fellows have made field collections and are in the process of analyzing data. Preliminary results document the sensitivity of vegetation in the cloud forests of Haleakala National Park to drought, California seashore vulnerabilities, and a variety of climate and ecological impacts on subsistence fisheries in Alaska.
• Garfin, G., Norby, L., Graumlich, L., & Watkins, T. (2011). The George Melendez Wright climate change fellowship program: Promoting innovative park science for resource management. Park Science, 28(2).
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  Abstract: In 2010 the National Park Service Climate Change Response Program created the George Melendez Wright Climate Change Fellowship to foster new and innovative research on climate change impacts in protected areas, and to promote national parks as laboratories for research on climate change. The program aims to increase the use of scientific knowledge to further resource management in parks and deepen the utility of place-based science for society in national parks. In its first year the program funded 22 proposals by graduate students from across the country. Research in progress covers an extensive variety of topics, from examination of how genetic factors mediate climate change effects in vulnerable tree species to ethnographic studies of the effects of environmental change on the practices of subsistence fisheries in coastal preserves and monuments. The geographic and ecosystem extent of projects ranges from Hawaiian cloud forests and Alaskan alpine environments, to forests in the Intermountain West, to coastal wetlands in Louisiana. Most program fellows have made field collections and are in the process of analyzing data. Preliminary results document the sensitivity of vegetation in the cloud forests of Haleakala National Park to drought, California seashore vulnerabilities, and a variety of climate and ecological impacts on subsistence fisheries in Alaska.
• Ellis, A. W., Goodrich, G. B., & Garfin, G. M. (2010). A hydroclimatic index for examining patterns of drought in the Colorado River Basin. International Journal of Climatology, 30(2), 236-255.
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  Abstract: To better understand drought occurrence in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) of the southwestern United States we used a hydroclimatic index to create a historical record of drought coverage and analysed the linear trend and relationships with key climate teleconnections. The past century was characterized by an increase in drought coverage during the warm portion of the year almost exclusively as a result of climatic warming. In recent decades, a significant increase in the drought coverage occurred earlier in the year, during the spring season, primarily as a function of warming, but in combination with a decline in precipitation for a significant portion of the basin. The El Niño (La Niña) phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon is associated with a smaller (larger) area of drought during fall and winter, and the ENSO phase during the preceding six months is a significant predictor. The area of drought within the CRB is larger (smaller) during the warm (cold) phases of the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), although the relationship with the PDO is weak. Monthly AMO values for the two years preceding drought provide minor predictability. Decadal averages of drought coverage closely follow those of both the AMO and PDO index. However, the nature of the PDO-drought relationship is reversed over the two halves of the historical record, possibly indicating a dominance of the AMO over the PDO in influencing drought in the region. Teleconnection-drought relationships are stronger for the southern portion of the basin. Trends in drought coverage, the current phases of the AMO and PDO, climate change projections of regional warming, and the likelihood of continued rapid population growth could result in significant water resource problems within the CRB. © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society.
• Garfin, G. M. (2010). A hydroclimatic index for examining patterns of drought in the Colorado River Basin. International Journal of Climatology.
• Garfin, G. M. (2010). Adapting across boundaries: Climate change, social learning, and resilience in the U.S.-Mexico border region. Annals of the Association of American Geographers.
• Wilder, M., Scott, C. A., Pablos, N. P., Varady, R. G., Garfin, G. M., & McEvoy, J. (2010). Adapting across boundaries: Climate change, social learning, and resilience in the U.S.-Mexico border region. Annals of the Association of American Geographers, 100(4), 917-928.
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  Abstract: The spatial and human dimensions of climate change are brought into relief at international borderswhere climate change poses particular challenges. This article explores "double exposure" to climatic and globalization processes for the U.S.-Mexico border region, where rapid urbanization, industrialization, and agricultural intensification result in vulnerability to water scarcity as the primary climate change concern. For portions of the western border within the North American monsoon climate regime, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change projects temperature increases of 2 to 4°C by midcentury and up to 3 to 5°C by 2100, with possible decreases of 5 to 8 percent in precipitation. Like the climate and water drivers themselves, proposed societal responses can also be regionalized across borders. Nevertheless, binational responses are confronted by a complex institutional landscape. The coproduction of science and policy must be situated in the context of competing institutional jurisdictions and legitimacy claims. Adaptation to climate change is conventionally understood as more difficult at international borders, yet regionalizing adaptive responses could also potentially increase resilience. We assess three cases of transboundary collaboration in the Arizona-Sonora region based on specific indicators that contribute importantly to building adaptive capacity. We conclude that three key factors can increase resilience over the long term: shared social learning, the formation of binational "communities of practice" among water managers or disaster-relief planners, and the coproduction of climate knowledge. © 2010 by Association of American Geographers Initial submission.
• Al-Kofahi, S. D., Garfin, G., Fraisse, C. W., Bean, M., & Hilaire, R. S. (2009). Establishing a Decision Making Tool to Reduce Drought Vulnerability in Residential Urban Landscapes. HORTSCIENCE, 44(4), 1162-1162.
• Garfin, G. M. (2009). The science-policy interface: Experience of a workshop for climate change researchers and water managers. Science and Public Policy.
• Jacobs, K., Garfin, G., & Buizer, J. (2009). The science-policy interface: Experience of a workshop for climate change researchers and water managers. Science and Public Policy, 36(10), 791-798.
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  Abstract: This report summarizes a workshop for Arizona water managers and climate change researchers. The key technical conclusions of the workshop emphasize the need for improved monitoring, prediction, and engineering to deal with hydrologic non-stationarities generated by a combination of increasing temperatures, changing snow hydrology, and enhanced precipitation variability. Participants suggested a need to improve methodologies for valuing ecosystem services and understanding the nexus between energy production in the water resources arena. Paleohydrologic reconstructions, well-defined climate change scenarios, better data visualization and collaborative learning opportunities between water managers and scientists all can support more effective water management decisions. We note the importance of maximizing discussion and social interaction in workshops in order to remove barriers between scientists and practitioners. In particular: (1) holding the workshop in a location that maximizes community-building, (2) limiting the time devoted to plenary talks, and (3) introducing informal café-style discussions early in the workshop, are all important. © Beech Tree Publishing 2009.
• Garfin, G. M. (2008). Beyond brainstorming: Exploring climate change adaptation strategies. Eos.
• Garfin, G. M. (2008). Mitigating climate change in the American Southwest. Eos.
• Garfin, G. M. (2008). Models, assumptions, and stakeholders: Planning for water supply variability in the Colorado River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association.
• Garfin, G., Jacobs, K., & Buizer, J. (2008). Beyond brainstorming: Exploring climate change adaptation strategies. Eos, 89(25), 227-.
• Garrick, D., Jacobs, K., & Garfin, G. (2008). Models, assumptions, and stakeholders: Planning for water supply variability in the Colorado River Basin. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 44(2), 381-398.
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  Abstract: Declining reservoir storage has raised the specter of the first water shortage on the Lower Colorado River since the completion of Glen Canyon and Hoover Dams. This focusing event spurred modeling efforts to frame alternatives for managing the reservoir system during prolonged droughts. This paper addresses the management challenges that arise when using modeling tools to manage water scarcity under variable hydroclimatology, shifting use patterns, and institutional complexity. Assumptions specified in modeling simulations are an integral feature of public processes. The policymaking and management implications of assumptions are examined by analyzing four interacting sources of physical and institutional uncertainty: inflow (runoff), depletion (water use), operating rules, and initial reservoir conditions. A review of planning documents and model reports generated during two recent processes to plan for surplus and shortage in the Colorado River demonstrates that modeling tools become useful to stakeholders by clarifying the impacts of modeling assumptions at several temporal and spatial scales. A high reservoir storage-to-runoff ratio elevates the importance of assumptions regarding initial reservoir conditions over the three-year outlook used to assess the likelihood of reaching surplus and shortage triggers. An ensemble of initial condition predictions can provide more robust initial conditions estimates. This paper concludes that water managers require model outputs that encompass a full range of future potential outcomes, including best and worst cases. Further research into methods of representing and communicating about hydrologic and institutional uncertainty in model outputs will help water managers and other stakeholders to assess tradeoffs when planning for water supply variability. © 2008 American Water Resources Association.
• McCarthy, P. D., Enquist, C. A., & Garfin, G. (2008). Mitigating climate change in the American Southwest. Eos, 89(1), 3-.
• Garfin, G. M. (2007). Applications of Monsoon research: Opportunities to inform decision making and reduce regional vulnerability. Journal of Climate.
• Garfin, G. M. (2007). Monsoon region climate applications: Integrating climate science with regional planning and policy. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
• Ray, A. J., Garfin, G. M., Brito-Castillo, L., Cortez-Vázquez, M., Diaz, H. F., Garatuza-Payán, J., Gochis, D., Lobato-Sánchez, R., Varady, R., & Watts, C. (2007). Monsoon region climate applications: Integrating climate science with regional planning and policy. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 88(6), 933-935.
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  Abstract: There are various climate and society assessment projects that are working to understand monsoon-region stakeholder climate sensitivities and decision-making needs. These efforts are spearheaded by American and Mexican climate and social scientists, resource managers and policymakers by way of establishing workshops. The workshop is about the stimulation of linking climate science and key research groups. In addition, it aims to simplify the communication between climate experts and information users and also involve the public policy. One such organization that in charge of the workshop is NAME (North American Monsoon Experiment). The members emphasize the need for observations with better temporal and spatial representation of key environmental variables for monitoring and decision support and better access to knowledge. The group stresses the need to better the understanding of the effects of climate on vulnerable sectors. In addition, they are stressing cooperation between biophysical and societal processes and stresors to improve socioecological sustainability in a region. As such, proposals for efforts were forwarded, including the establishment of integrating science and assessment program as well as a regional climate center and a regional climate outlook product to aid decision makers.
• Ray, A. J., Garfin, G. M., Wilder, M., Vásquez-León, M., Lenart, M., & Comrie, A. C. (2007). Applications of Monsoon research: Opportunities to inform decision making and reduce regional vulnerability. Journal of Climate, 20(9), 1608-1627.
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  Abstract: This article presents ongoing efforts to understand interactions between the North American monsoon and society in order to develop applications for monsoon research in a highly complex, multicultural, and binational region. The North American monsoon is an annual precipitation regime that begins in early June in Mexico and progresses northward to the southwestern United States. The region includes stakeholders in large urban complexes, productive agricultural areas, and sparsely populated and and semiarid ecosystems. The political, cultural, and socioeconomic divisions between the United States and Mexico create a broad range of sensitivities to climate variability as well as capacities to use forecasts and other information to cope with climate. This paper highlights methodologies to link climate science with society and to analyze opportunities for monsoon science to benefit society in four sectors: natural hazards management, agriculture, public health, and water management. A list of stakeholder needs and a calendar of decisions is synthesized to help scientists link user needs to potential forecasts and products. To ensure usability of forecasts and other research products, iterative scientist-stakeholder interactions, through integrated assessments, are recommended. These knowledge-exchange interactions can improve the capacity for stakeholders to use forecasts thoughtfully and inform the development of research, and for the research community to obtain feedback on climate-related products and receive insights to guide research direction. It is expected that integrated assessments can capitalize on the opportunities for monsoon science to inform decision making and, in the best instances, reduce regional climate vulnerabilities and enhance regional sustainability. © 2007 American Meteorological Society.
• Garfin, G. M. (2006). Drought and declining reservoirs: Comparing media discourse in Arizona and New Mexico, 2002-2004. Global Environmental Change.
• Sonnett, J., Morehouse, B. J., Finger, T. D., Garfin, G., & Rattray, N. (2006). Drought and declining reservoirs: Comparing media discourse in Arizona and New Mexico, 2002-2004. Global Environmental Change, 16(1), 95-113.
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  Abstract: Media discourses about drought impacts on lakes and reservoirs in Arizona and New Mexico between 2002 and 2004 are compared to show how discursive contexts shape the framing of drought in temporal and spatial scales. Discursive contexts in the two states are shaped by their cultural and political histories and the differential development of water delivery infrastructures. Quantitative mapping of keywords in the states' main newspapers shows how New Mexico experienced more conflict and Arizona more surprise about the drought. Qualitative case studies link these patterns to variation in framing between the states. In particular, the shorter temporal scale in New Mexico is linked to a greater sense of emergency, while the longer temporal scale in Arizona reflects the buffering of urban populations from drought through water delivery infrastructure. The finer spatial scale in Arizona, focusing on urban concerns, reflects an established infrastructure of reservoirs while the broader spatial scale in New Mexico, incorporating both rural and urban concerns, reflects a less developed physical infrastructure and greater prevalence of water rights conflicts. This study illustrates the usefulness of a multifaceted approach to the study of media discourse. © 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
• Garfin, G. M. (2005). Climate science and drought planning: The Arizona experience. Journal of the American Water Resources Association.
• Garfin, G. M. (2005). Exploratory temperature and precipitation reconstructions from the Qinling Mountains, North-Central China. Tree-Ring Research.
• Garfin, G. M. (2005). More than just talk: Connecting science and decisionmaking. Environment.
• Garfin, G. M., Hughes, M. K., Liu, Y. u., Burns, J. M., Touchan, R., Leavitt, S. W., Zhisheng, A., Garfin, G. M., Hughes, M. K., Liu, Y. u., Burns, J. M., Touchan, R., Leavitt, S. W., Zhisheng, A., Garfin, G. M., Hughes, M. K., Liu, Y. u., Burns, J. M., Touchan, R., , Leavitt, S. W., et al. (2005). Exploratory temperature and precipitation reconstructions from the Qinling Mountains, North-Central China. Tree-Ring Research, 61(2), 59-72.
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  Abstract: February-April (FMA) temperature at Foping (1879-1989) and July-August (JA) precipitation at Xian (1895-1988) have been reconstructed using total ring width (TRW) and maximum latewood density (MXD) from trees in the Qinling Mountains, at the northern limit of the East Asian monsoon, in central China. The Xian JA precipitation reconstruction, albeit short, represents the first well-replicated, crossdated dendroclimatic reconstruction of summer monsoon precipitation for this region. Reconstructed Xian precipitation shows significant positive relationships with historical evidence from the region. The key feature of the precipitation reconstruction is prolonged summer drought during the late 1920s and early 1930s. The Foping reconstruction displays warmer-than-average FMA temperatures during this time period. These exploratory reconstructions, along with a previous reconstruction from Huashan, demonstrate the complexity of attempting dendroclimatic reconstructions from this region. Our results indicate that further attempts to locate long-lived conifers from here can result in an extended well-calibrated and verified reconstruction of summer monsoon precipitation. Copyright © 2005 by the Tree-Ring Society.
• Jacobs, K. L., Garfin, G. M., & Morehouse, B. J. (2005). Climate science and drought planning: The Arizona experience. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 41(2), 437-445.
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  Abstract: In response to recent severe drought conditions throughout the state, Arizona recently developed its first drought plan. The Governor's Drought Task Force focused on limiting the economic and social impacts of future droughts through enhanced adaptation and mitigation efforts. The plan was designed to maximize the use of new, scientific breakthroughs in climate monitoring and prediction and in vulnerability assessment. The long term objective of the monitoring system is to allow for evaluation of conditions in multiple sectors and at multiple scales. Stakeholder engagement and decision support are key objectives in reducing Arizona's vulnerability in light of the potential for severe, sustained drought. The drivers of drought conditions in Arizona include the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. (JAWRA) (Copyright © 2005).
• Jacobs, K., Garfin, G., & Lenart, M. (2005). More than just talk: Connecting science and decisionmaking. Environment, 47(9), 6-21.
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  Abstract: Does society make decisions based on science? Do scientists determine how useful their work is to society? For many, the answer to both questions is a resounding "no". This article describes efforts to connect sustainability science with decisionmaking in the U.S. Southwest, demonstrating that with some hard work, the two communities can find a great deal of common ground.
• Brown, T. J., Garfin, G. G., Wordell, T., Ochoa, R., & Morehouse, B. (2004). Climate, fuels, fire and decisions: The making of national monthly and seasonal wildland fire outlooks. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 4483-4488.
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  Abstract: The need to address the national fire problem in the US by establishing protocols for producing monthly and seasonal wildland fire outlooks utilizing integrated information of climate, weather, fuels and fires, was presented. The first comprehensive seasonal fire potential outlook for the US was produced in a meeting of the fire weather meteorologists, fire and fuels specialists, management and climatologists. Communication between climate forecasters and geographic area coordination centers (GACC) specialists was strongly encouraged. The final outlook product was a combination of the quantitative information including historical, present and seasonal predictions and forecaster judgment.
• Brown, T. J., Garfin, G. G., Wordell, T., Ochoa, R., & Morehouse, B. (2004). Climate, fuels, fire and decisions: The making of national monthly and seasonal wildland fire outlooks. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 5291-5296.
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  Abstract: The efforts taken to provide integrated information and forecasts of weather, climate, fuels and fire are discussed. A National Fire Plan is established with an infusion of nearly two billion dollars for firefighting, hazardous fuels reduction, community assistance and accountability. Approximately 20 national interagency fire weather meteorologists are hired and Predictive Services are established. The geographic area coordination centers (GACC) provide logistical support and fire, weather and fuels intelligence for anticipated and ongoing wildfire activity for all federal and cooperating state fire supression agencies.
• Garfin, G. M. (2004). A climatology of drought for Arizona. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
• Garfin, G. M. (2004). Climate, fuels, fire and decisions: The making of national monthly and seasonal wildland fire outlooks. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society.
• McPhee, J. C., Comrie, A. C., & Garfin, G. G. (2004). A climatology of drought for Arizona. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 4681-4683.
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  Abstract: The Arizona drought history in support of the GDTF for drought planning, mitigation and response strategies for the future of drought are discussed. The Southwest is known for its diverse landscapes and semi-arid climate. The frequent occurrence of extreme hot and dry conditions, such as drought, is a normal part of the region's climate. Arizona typifies the region, as it is increasingly vulnerable to the effects of drought due to rapid and extensive population growth in recent decades. Drought exacerbates the stresses on the already limited water supply, leading to important socio-economic impacts.
• McPhee, J. C., Comrie, A. C., & Garfin, G. G. (2004). A climatology of drought for Arizona. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 5451-5453.
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  Abstract: The climatology of drought for Arizona and economic losses suffered in the ranching, agriculture, and tourism sectors was described. Statistical analyses were performed on the data including the annual and long-term mean. The calculations were performed to determine the precipitation percentages for each climate division of Arizona. It was found that two precipitation peaks occur each year in the winter and the summer in Arizona.
• Garfin, G. M. (2003). Preliminary reconstructions of spring precipitation in Southwestern Turkey from tree-ring width. International Journal of Climatology.
• Garfin, G. M. (1999). Interannual variability of Asian monsoon precipitation, 1953-1982, using instrumental records. IAWA Journal.
• Garfin-Woll, G. M. (1999). Interannual variability of Asian monsoon precipitation, 1953-1982, using instrumental records. IAWA Journal, 20(3), 227-238.
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  Abstract: Instrumental records were used to assess the interannual variability of precipitation for the greater Asian monsoon region (50°N-15°S, 60°E-150°E). Correlation analysis shows intriguing teleconnections between subtropical and midlatitude precipitation regions. Principal components analyses show that ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) is the dominant factor associated with recent interannual variation of precipitation in the region. The strongest relationships between ENSO and boreal summer precipitation were found in subtropical regions, as well as North Central China and southeastern Kazakhstan; boreal winter precipitation in the tropics and subtropics also exhibited strong relationships with ENSO. Scenarios for reconstructing spatial and temporal patterns of Asian monsoon precipitation variation were generated by selecting individual records based on 1) correlation with regional time series and 2) length of record. Spatial patterns were highly dependent on the type of record selected; however, temporal patterns were reasonably well reproduced regardless of station selection criteria. The implication of the latter result is that the dominant modes of boreal summer and winter precipitation for East Asia might be reconstructed using relatively few sites.
• Garfin, G. M. (1998). Relationships between winter atmospheric circulation patterns and extreme tree growth anomalies in the Sierra Nevada. International Journal of Climatology, 18(7), 725-740.
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  Abstract: Tree-ring data from id-elevation (~2000 m) giant sequoia (Sequoiadendron giganteum) and high elevation (~3500 m) pines (Pinus balfouriana, Pinus albicaulis) were used to select extreme growth years from which temperature, precipitation and large-scale winter (November-Marsh, NM) 500 mn circulation patterns associated with the extreme tree growth anomalies were examined. Winters preceding extreme high growth in both giant sequoia and pines are warm and wet and are characterized by anomalous low pressure in the northern Pacific Ocean and a tendency for southwesterly flow advection of warm maritime air into California. For the pines, such winters exhibit a pattern of anomalous low pressure in the northern Pacific, anomalous high pressure over northwestern Canada and anomalous low pressure across the southern US. NM 500 mb heights suggest more meridional circulation during the warm and dry winters preceding extreme low growth in giant sequoia. Atmospheric circulation during these winters exhibits a persistent trough/ridge pattern between the central Pacific and the western US. Storms are deflected away from California during these winters. NM atmospheric circulation patterns associated with extreme low growth in the pines exhibit maximum westerlies north of their mean position and the tendency for enhanced ridging in the northeast Pacific, which advects cool dry air into the Sierra Nevada. As dendroclimatic reconstructions are more frequently employed in order to better understand past variability of temperature and precipitation, synoptic dendroclimatological studies such as this one provide useful insights about atmospheric circulation.
• Garfin, G. M. (1998). Relationships between winter atmospheric circulation patterns and extreme tree growth anomalies in the Sierra Nevada. International Journal of Climatology.
• Garfin, G. M. (1994). A Preliminary Reconstruction of Rainfall in North-Central China since A.D. 1600 from Tree-Ring Density and Width. Quaternary Research.

Proceedings Publications

• Brain, R. G., Newman, B. H., Apel, M. B., Garfin, G. M., Lev, L., & Weiner, C. (2016, Fall). Extension Sustainability Summit 2016: Impact Evaluation Report and Lightning Sessions Summaries. In Extension Sustainability Summit 2016, 16.
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  ESS IMPACT EVALUATION RESULTS AND LIGHTNING SESSIONS SUMMARIESThis publication includes the impact evaluation results and detailed summaries of each of the six topic area Summit Lightning Sessions from the 2016 Extension Sustainability Summit (ESS). It also includes a brief history of the Summit, its future, and its role on a national level to advance Extension Sustainability Outreach.
• Garfin, G. M., LeRoy, S., & Jones, H. (2016, November). Developing an Integrated Heat-Health Information System for Long-term Resilience to Climate and Weather Extremes in the El Paso-Juárez-Las Cruces Region.. In Developing an Integrated Heat-Health Information System for Long-term Resilience to Climate and Weather Extremes in the El Paso-Juárez-Las Cruces Region, 1-59.
• Briggs, M. K., Lite, S. J., Garfin, G. M., Cecil, D., & Wickel, B. (2013, May). Planning river restoration in a changing climate. In Merging science and management in a rapidly changing world: Biodiversity and management of the Madrean Archipelago III, 517.
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  Briggs, M. K., Sharon Joy Lite, G. Garfin, D. Cecil, and B. Wickel, 2013. In: Gottfried, Gerald J.; Ffolliott, Peter F.; Gebow, Brooke S.; Eskew, Lane G.; Collins, Loa C., comps. 2013. Merging science and management in a rapidly changing world: Biodiversity and management of the Madrean Archipelago III; 2012 May 1-5; Tucson, AZ. Proceedings. RMRS-P-67. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, p. 517.On December 7-11, 2010, a conference was convened in Tucson, Arizona that broughttogether river practitioners, scientists, private citizens, and conservationists from federal and state agencies, academic institutions, and nongovernmentalorganizations (NGOs) in the southwestern United States (U.S.), northern Mexico, and southeastern Australia to discuss lessonslearned from their river restoration experiences. Key conference topics included the development of viable restoration objectives, planningand implementing restoration, monitoring results, climate change, environmental flow, native fish conservation, and restoration along transboundaryrivers. Results are being incorporated into an applied river restoration guidebook, which summarizes the main steps of developing astream restoration project, from planning and implementation to monitoring and evaluation. Some of the main lessons from the conference andoverall strategy of the guidebook will be presented, with emphasis on the guidebook chapter that reviews considerations for developing riverrestoration in a changing climate.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, December). Going the Extra Mile: Making Climate Data and Information Usable for Decision Making. In American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2013.
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  Abstract GC41F-08 presented at 2013 Fall Meeting, AGU, San Francisco, Calif., 9-13 Dec.Session GC41F - Paleoclimate, Observations and Models: Water Resource Management Under Climate Variability and Change II AbstractActionable science, defined as “data, analysis, and forecasts that are sufficiently predictive, accepted and understandable to support decision-making,” is the holy grail for climate scientists engaged in working with decision makers, to provide the scientific basis for adaptation planning and decisions. The literature on boundary organizations and science translation offers guidelines and best practices for the generation of climate information that is useful and usable for policy and operational decisions. Guidelines emphasize understanding decision contexts and constraints, trust building, development of a shared vision of usable science, co-production of knowledge, iterative and sustained engagement, and the development and leveraging of knowledge networks and communities of practice. Some studies offer the advice that climate change is fraught with irreducible or slowly reducible uncertainties; hence, the adoption of adaptive risk management approaches is more valuable in the near-term than scientific effort to reduce uncertainty or combine data in novel ways. Nevertheless, many water resource managers still seek science that reduces uncertainties, assurance that the range of projections will not change, evidence of cause and effect (e.g., atmospheric circulation patterns linked to regional precipitation anomalies) and information that is as close to deterministic as possible. So, how does the scientific community move forward on initiatives that integrate paleoclimate, observations, and model projections, to inform water resource management? There are no simple answers, because the uses of climate and hydrological data and information are context dependent. Scientists have products -- data and information -- and they need to research characteristics of the consumers of their product. What is the consumer’s operating procedure, and world view? How does the consumer handle uncertainty? What is their tolerance for risk? What social and political factors, environmental impact covenants, and professional standards constrain their use of new data sources, or combinations of data? What data do they currently use, and what are their protocols and standards for quality assurance? For individual projects, this may entail understanding data requirements, such as time step, format, techniques, abilities to change operational practices, and so on. It also may require an understanding of an organization’s structure and internal communication. Are you working with upper management, middle management, technicians? Among those, who are early adopters, credible messengers, champions for your product? This endeavor, to get one’s product into use, may also entail understanding use of data and information to inform decisions. For instance information may be consulted or used passively in deliberations; it may be used to communicate risk or justify actions; it may be incorporated directly into operational models, planning, and policy. As a community, scientists must make clear the uncertainties associated with products, the best practices for using a plethora of products, as well as the benefits -- in ways that are transparent and testable. As an analogue, consider the gap between the discovery of ENSO, the staggering impacts of the 1982-83 event, the successful prediction of the 1997-98 event, the regular incorporation of ENSO in seasonal prediction, public familiarity with “El Nino,” and the persistent gap in forecast use.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, February). Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: Key Findings. In Society for Range Management.
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  US Global Change Research Program National Climate Assessment 2013 Report Release(symposium)The Southwest is frequently cited as a hotspot for observed and future climate change.Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States, is a 121-author report thatsynthesizes and summarizes knowledge about climate change and its impacts across Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. Highlights from the report and other technical inputs were summarized in a chapter for the National Climate Assessment. These reports find that regional snowpack and streamflows have declined over the recent decade. Climate models project continued snowpack and streamflow reduction in many of the region's major river basins, and increased drought duration and severity. Increased temperatures and drought have already increased wildfires and impacts to Southwest ecosystems. Models project more wildfire and increased risks across extensive areas. The Southwest produces most of the nation's high-value specialty crops, which are irrigation-dependent and vulnerable to extremes of moisture, cold and heat. Some rural communities may experience job displacement, due to projected yield reductions, increased temperatures, and competition for diminished water supplies. Southwest cattle ranches, which depend on rain-fed forage grasses, will be vulnerable to projected increases in climate variability, including drought. While climate changes may afford some opportunities for range improvement, through introduction of alternative forage species and enrichment of plant growth, managing variability, including persistent drought, will be a challenge. To manage increased climate variability, some agricultural economists suggest more flexible cow-calf-yearling operations, which could take advantage of good years, and avoid damaging rangelands in lean years, through early selling of yearlings.
• Garfin, G. M., & Garfin, G. M. (2013, June). Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: Key Findings. In 5th Annual Science on the Sonoita Plain Symposium, 5-7.
• Garfin, G. M., & Quijada-Mascarenas, A. (2013, May). Transborder Climate and experiments in climate communication: Building a foundation for adaptation. In Merging science and management in a rapidly changing world: Biodiversity and management of the Madrean Archipelago III, 533.
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  Garfin, G. and A. Quijada-Mascareñas, 2013. Transborder Climate and experiments in climate communication: Building a foundation for adaptation. In: Gottfried, Gerald J.; Ffolliott, Peter F.; Gebow, Brooke S.; Eskew, Lane G.; Collins, Loa C., comps. 2013. Merging science and management in a rapidly changing world: Biodiversity and management of the Madrean Archipelago III; 2012 May 1-5; Tucson, AZ. Proceedings. RMRS-P-67. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, p. 533.
• Misztal, L., Garfin, G. M., & Hansen, L. (2013, May). Responding to Climate Change Impacts in the Sky Island Region: From Planning to Action. In Merging science and management in a rapidly changing world: Biodiversity and management of the Madrean Archipelago III, 60-67.
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  Misztal, L., G. Garfin, and L. Hansen, 2013. Responding to Climate Change Impacts in the Sky Island Region: From Planning to Action. In: Gottfried, Gerald J.; Ffolliott, Peter F.; Gebow, Brooke S.; Eskew, Lane G.; Collins, Loa C., comps. 2013. Merging science and management in a rapidly changing world: Biodiversity and management of the Madrean Archipelago III; 2012 May 1-5; Tucson, AZ. Proceedings. RMRS-P-67. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, pp. 60-67.
• Woodhouse, C. A., Crimmins, M., Ferguson, D. B., Garfin, G. M., & Scott, C. A. (2011, Fall). Making the Connection between Environmental Science and Decision Making. In American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2011.
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  C.A. Woodhouse, M. Crimmins, D.B. Ferguson, G.M. Garfin, C.A. Scott. 2011. Making the Connection between Environmental Science and Decision Making. American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2011. Abstract #ED51C-0766. http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2011AGUFMED51C0766W

Presentations

• Garfin, G. M. (2013, August). Importance of Information Transfer and Facilitating Effective Dialogue. 98th Annual Meeting, Ecological Society of America. Minneapolis, MN.
• Garfin, G. M. (2018, all months/ all seasons). Documentation of 38 Public Presentations in Calendar Year 2018 (see attached PDF). Multiple (see attached PDF). Multiple (see attached PDF): Multiple (see attached PDF).
• Gornish, E., Falk, D. A., & Garfin, G. M. (2017, October). Vegetation management after fire in Arizona. Arizona State Legislative Offices.
• Gornish, E., Falk, D. A., & Garfin, G. M. (2017, October). Wildfire and restoration policy for Arizona. Arizona Senate Briefing. Arizona State Capitol, Phoenix, AZ: Arizona State Legislature.
• Garfin, G. M. (2016, Annual). 49 Public Presentations in 2016, 3111 people, 63 hours, 3423 contact hours - Summary PDF attached. Multiple conferences, workshops, panel sessions, public meetings. Multiple locations: Multiple organizations.
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  Table containing dates, events, titles, # of participants, hours, submitted/invited, contact hours for 49 talks or other public presentations that I gave in 2016.
• O'Connor, C. D., Falk, D. A., Garfin, G. M., Sheppard, B. S., & Treanor, F. (2016, March). Engagement through partnership: Connecting climate change adaptation to base management priorities. Multi-Project workshop, US Department of Defense, Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP),. Tucson, AZ: Institute of the Environment and Center for Climate Adaptation and Solutions (CCASS), University of Arizona..
• Crimmins, M. A., Weiss, J. L., Garfin, G. M., Crimmins, M. A., Weiss, J. L., Garfin, G. M., Crimmins, M. A., Weiss, J. L., & Garfin, G. M. (2015, December). Climate and Geospatial Extension. University of Arizona Extension Administration Retreat. Tucson, AZ.
• Garfin, G. M. (2015, Annual). 46 Public Presentations in 2015 - Summary PDF attached. Multiple conferences, workshops, panel sessions, public meetings. Multiple locations: Multiple organizations.
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  The attached PDF summarizes 46 public talks that I gave in 2015. These include 37 invited talks and 9 submitted talks.
• Jacobs, K. L., Buizer, J. l., Garfin, G. M., Breshears, D. D., Liverman, D. M., Jacobs, K. L., Buizer, J. l., Garfin, G. M., Breshears, D. D., & Liverman, D. M. (2014, January). Living in Our Future Climate: Adapting to Climate Change. Moderate Panel and Present at CCASS convened conference. Student Union Memorial Center, Kiva Room, UA: UA Institute of the Environment.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, April). National Climate Assessment Southwest Region: Key Findings. Town Hall on Sustained Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest. Tempe, AZ.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, April). Projected Climate Changes for the United States: Key Findings. National Native Seed Conference. Symposium: Implications Of Climate Change For Revegetation Practitioners. Santa Fe, NM.
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  The draft National Climate Assessment report analyzes current trends in global change, both human-induced and natural, and projects major trends for the subsequent 25 to 100 years for the United States. This presentation draws upon draft NCA results, with an emphasis on the Southwest region. The presentation will also touch on issues of uncertainty and confidence in climate projections, and how these may factor into climate change adaptation planning. U.S. average temperature has increased by about 1.5°F since 1895, with more than 80% of this increase occurring since 1980. In the Southwest, the period since 1950 has been warmer than any period of comparable length in the last 600 years. Temperatures are projected to continue to increase. Interactions between trends in temperature and natural variability in the climate system ensure that future temperature increases will not be geographically or temporally smooth. The length of the frost-free season has been increasing nationally since the 1980s; models project continued lengthening of the frost-free season, with the largest increases in the West. Precipitation averaged over the entire U.S. has increased since 1900, but portions of the Southeast, the Southwest, and the Rocky Mountain states have experienced decreases. Increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected for the Midwest and Northeast. Increased intensity of heat waves has been most prevalent in the West, while the intensity of flooding events has been more prevalent over the East. Droughts and heat waves in the Southwest are projected to become more intense.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, April). Tucson, Arizona Case Study. National Adaptation Forum. Critical Thresholds: Can't live with 'em, can't live without 'em (Working Group). Denver, CO.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, August). CLIMAS Overview: 15 years in 15 minutes. Interagency Transportation, Land Use, and Climate Change Scenario Planning, U.S Department of Transportation, Albuquerque, NM webinar. Online Webinar: Volpe Center, U.S. Department of Transportation.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, August). Projected Climate Changes for the United States: Key Findings. Continuing Legal Education. Reno, NV.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, December). Going the Extra Mile: Making Climate Data and Information Usable for Decision Making. American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2013. San Francisco, CA: American Geophysical Union.
  More info

  Abstract GC41F-08 presented at 2013 Fall Meeting, AGU, San Francisco, Calif., 9-13 Dec.Session GC41F - Paleoclimate, Observations and Models: Water Resource Management Under Climate Variability and Change II AbstractActionable science, defined as “data, analysis, and forecasts that are sufficiently predictive, accepted and understandable to support decision-making,” is the holy grail for climate scientists engaged in working with decision makers, to provide the scientific basis for adaptation planning and decisions. The literature on boundary organizations and science translation offers guidelines and best practices for the generation of climate information that is useful and usable for policy and operational decisions. Guidelines emphasize understanding decision contexts and constraints, trust building, development of a shared vision of usable science, co-production of knowledge, iterative and sustained engagement, and the development and leveraging of knowledge networks and communities of practice. Some studies offer the advice that climate change is fraught with irreducible or slowly reducible uncertainties; hence, the adoption of adaptive risk management approaches is more valuable in the near-term than scientific effort to reduce uncertainty or combine data in novel ways. Nevertheless, many water resource managers still seek science that reduces uncertainties, assurance that the range of projections will not change, evidence of cause and effect (e.g., atmospheric circulation patterns linked to regional precipitation anomalies) and information that is as close to deterministic as possible. So, how does the scientific community move forward on initiatives that integrate paleoclimate, observations, and model projections, to inform water resource management? There are no simple answers, because the uses of climate and hydrological data and information are context dependent. Scientists have products -- data and information -- and they need to research characteristics of the consumers of their product. What is the consumer’s operating procedure, and world view? How does the consumer handle uncertainty? What is their tolerance for risk? What social and political factors, environmental impact covenants, and professional standards constrain their use of new data sources, or combinations of data? What data do they currently use, and what are their protocols and standards for quality assurance? For individual projects, this may entail understanding data requirements, such as time step, format, techniques, abilities to change operational practices, and so on. It also may require an understanding of an organization’s structure and internal communication. Are you working with upper management, middle management, technicians? Among those, who are early adopters, credible messengers, champions for your product? This endeavor, to get one’s product into use, may also entail understanding use of data and information to inform decisions. For instance information may be consulted or used passively in deliberations; it may be used to communicate risk or justify actions; it may be incorporated directly into operational models, planning, and policy. As a community, scientists must make clear the uncertainties associated with products, the best practices for using a plethora of products, as well as the benefits -- in ways that are transparent and testable. As an analogue, consider the gap between the discovery of ENSO, the staggering impacts of the 1982-83 event, the successful prediction of the 1997-98 event, the regular incorporation of ENSO in seasonal prediction, public familiarity with “El Nino,” and the persistent gap in forecast use.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, December). The Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) Adaptation Framework. Nevada BLM Scenario Planning. Online Webinar.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, February). Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: Key Findings. CLIMAS Colloquium. Tucson, AZ.
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  The Southwest is one of the most sensitive regions to climate change in the U.S., and a soon-to-be-released synthesis report will provide the most comprehensive update on the state-of-the-science on climate changes and impacts for Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. The report, “The Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States,” documents that the Southwest will likely experience continued temperature increases, summer heat waves longer and hotter than experienced in the past, and reduced streamflows, among other climate and ecosystem changes. The report also highlights potential critical changes in key sectors. Agriculture, for example, will likely experience fewer chill-hours, which may force-out some fruit tree producers. Energy production may become less reliable due to potential climate-related increases in demand and declines in power generation efficiency due to increased heat and decreased water supplies. And public health may experience increases in human morbidity and mortality due to increased heat. Gregg Garfin, lead-coordinating author of this report, will present these and other key findings on Friday, Jan. 25th at 10:30 am in Marshall 531. The report drew on contributions from 121 authors and will be published in early 2013. You can currently access the first chapter of the report, known as the Summary for Decision Makers. The full report will be available here.The Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States is one of eight regional technical contributions to the National Climate Assessment, which will summarize key findings from each region and will help inform informs the nation about observed changes and anticipated climate trends. The National Climate Assessment report will be published later this year.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, February). Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: Key Findings. Society for Range Management 66th Annual Meeting. Symposium: U.S. Global Change Research Program, National Climate Assessment: Draft 2013 Report. Oklahoma City, OK: U.S. Global Change Research Program.
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  The Southwest is frequently cited as a hotspot for observed and future climate change. Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States, is a 121-author report that synthesizes and summarizes knowledge about climate change and its impacts across Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. Highlights from the report and other technical inputs were summarized in a chapter for the National Climate Assessment. These reports find that regional snowpack and streamflows have declined over the recent decade. Climate models project continued snowpack and streamflow reduction in many of the region's major river basins, and increased drought duration and severity. Increased temperatures and drought have already increased wildfires and impacts to Southwest ecosystems. Models project more wildfire and increased risks across extensive areas. The Southwest produces most of the nation's high-value specialty crops, which are irrigation-dependent and vulnerable to extremes of moisture, cold and heat. Some rural communities may experience job displacement, due to projected yield reductions, increased temperatures, and competition for diminished water supplies. Southwest cattle ranches, which depend on rain-fed forage grasses, will be vulnerable to projected increases in climate variability, including drought. While climate changes may afford some opportunities for range improvement, through introduction of alternative forage species and enrichment of plant growth, managing variability, including persistent drought, will be a challenge. To manage increased climate variability, some agricultural economists suggest more flexible cow-calf-yearling operations, which could take advantage of good years, and avoid damaging rangelands in lean years, through early selling of yearlings.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, February). Climate Projections and Results from Two New Reports: Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest U.S., and National Climate Assessment, Chapter 20 - Southwest. Southwest Society of American Foresters, Spring/Winter Meeting. Willcox, AZ.
  More info

  The Southwest is one of the most sensitive regions to climate change in the U.S. A soon-to-be-released synthesis report will provide the most comprehensive update on the state-of-the-science on climate changes and impacts for Arizona, California, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, and Utah. The report, "The Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States," documents that the Southwest will likely experience continued temperature increases, summer heat waves longer and hotter than experienced in the past, and reduced streamflows, among other climate and ecosystem changes. The report also highlights potential critical changes in key sectors. Garfin is an Assistant Professor & Assistant Specialist in Climate Science, Policy & Natural Resources - School of Natural Resources and the Environment and Deputy Director for Science Translation and Outreach - Institute of the Environment.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, February). Desert Water: Paradoxes and Trade-Offs. University of Arizona Museum of Art: Bat Night. Tucson, AZ.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, February). National Climate Assessment Chapter 20: Southwest. Union of Concerned Scientists - National Climate Impacts Assessment 2013 Webinar Series. Online Webinar: Union of Concerned Scientists.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, January). Regional Overview. Town Hall on Sustained Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest. La Jolla, CA.
  More info

  This day-long town hall meeting will bring together approximately 90 people, including climate experts and users of climate information from academia, local, state, tribal, and federal governments, non-profit organizations, businesses, and industry. This event is by invitation only. Participants will have the opportunity to:learn about the National Climate Assessment and the process leading to the 2013 National Climate Assessment Report (a draft of the report will be available for public comment at the time of the meeting);talk with report authors, members of the National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee, and National Climate Assessment staff about how the information provided in National Climate Assessment products is and can be used in various decision making contexts;learn about local and regional efforts to respond to the impacts of climate change in the Southwest U.S.; andcollaborate with other meeting participants to identify ways that you and your community can participate in the long-term National Climate Assessment process.The town hall will consist of both plenary panels and small group discussions. During the plenary session, National Climate Assessment authors and staff will provide an overview of the National Climate Assessment process, present preliminary findings from the Draft 2013 National Climate Assessment Report, and explain how members of the public may comment on the Draft Report. Additional speakers will highlight local and regional efforts to assess and respond to the challenges of climate change, and will explore the ways in which efforts in the Southwest U.S. are linked to the National Climate Assessment. During the small group discussion time, you will have an opportunity share your own expertise and insights related to climate, assessments, and decision making in the context of climate change, and to suggest and plan pathways to build sustained assessment capacity in the Southwest U.S.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, July). Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: Implications for the San Pedro. San Pedro Riparian NCA Educational Forum. Sierra Vista, AZ: BLM.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, July). U.S. CLIVAR Applications and Engagement Strategy. U.S. CLIVAR Annual Summit. Annapolis, MD.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, June). Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: Key Findings. Pima Association of Governments, Air Quality Forum. Tucson, AZ.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, June). Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: Key Findings. Science on the Sonoita Plain Symposium. Elgin, AZ.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, May). Climate Change in the Tucson Region: Sustainable Living or Abandoned Wasteland?. Climate Change in the Tucson Region: Sustainable Living or Abandoned Wasteland?. Tucson, AZ: Institute of the Environment.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, November). Climate Change in the Southwest United States. Tucson Electric Power and UNISOURCE Integrated Resources Plan Workshop. Tucson, AZ: Tucson Electric Power Company.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, November). Science Perspective: Climate Projections for the Southwest. Regional Climate Summit for Municipal Leaders: Economic, Health, Water & Transportation Impacts. Tucson, AZ: CLIMAS.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, October). Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States. An Evening with Gregg Garfin, Editor Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest. Flagstaff, AZ: Climate Science and Solutions Professional Masters Program, Northern Arizona University.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, October). Climate Change and its Impacts in the Southwest United States. Pima County Health Department. Strategic Warriors Against Transmission.. Tucson, AZ.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, October). Climate Change in the Southwest United States. Huachuca Audubon Society. Sierra Vista, AZ.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, October). Climate Change in the Southwest United States. WESTCAS - Western Coalition of Arid States. Tucson, AZ.
  More info

  http://www.westcas.org/PDF/2013_fall_conference_trifold_program.pdf
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, October). Climate Change in the United States: Cooperative Extension & Sustainability. Extension Sustainability Summit. Session 5: Air Quality & Climate Change. Park City, UT: Western Rural Development Center.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, September). Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: Key Findings. 26th Annual Arizona Hydrological Society Symposium. Tucson, AZ.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, September). Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: Key Findings. Pima Association of Governments, Environmental Planning Advisory Committee. Tucson, AZ.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, September). Climate Change in the Southwest United States. Maricopa Bar Association, Continuing Legal Education. Phoenix, AZ.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, September). Climate Change in the Southwest United States. Southern Arizona Environmental Management Society. Tucson, AZ.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, September). Overview of Climate Change and its Impacts in the Southwest United States. Climate Ready Southwest: Ready or Hot?. Tucson, AZ: Physicians for Social Responsibility.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, September). Overview of Findings from Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: Focus on Extremes. Biennial Conference of Science and Management on the Colorado Plateau. Flagstaff, AZ.
• Garfin, G. M., Carrillo, C., Reeder, W. S., Petersen, A., & Ethen, L. (2013, January). Projected Temperature and Precipitation Extremes for Tucson, Arizona: Using Stakeholder-Defined Criteria for Adaptation Planning. 93rd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting. Austin, TX.
  More info

  It has often been stated that climate change will be experienced by citizens through changes in extreme events. The city of Tucson, Arizona currently experiences a variety of extremes including: intense precipitation and flooding from summer thunderstorms or multi-day winter fronts; episodes of multiple days of extreme heat; and episodes of multiple days (or even months) without measurable precipitation. As the city prepares its climate change adaptation plan, changes in these extremes are of importance to operational managers in city and county departments, natural resource managers stewarding lands adjacent to the city, and citizens concerned with the sustainability of the city. In order to better address these concerns and take our climate projections to the next level, we focused in on the extreme events that are most critical and relevant for the community. To define extremes, we surveyed key city and county employees, resource managers, and members of the community climate change committee. We analyzed the survey responses to identify critical thresholds for temperature and precipitation events and then tailored our modeling work to identify projected changes with respect to those recommended thresholds. We analyzed statistically and dynamically downscaled climate model projections of extreme heat, cold, and precipitation, based on high (A2) and low (B1) SRES emissions scenarios, for both the city and the wider region. We compare results from the two downscaling methods. We also compared results for the average of gridcells that comprise Tucson's city footprint with results for a larger region, which is affected by key climate phenomena, such as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation and the North American Monsoon. For Tucson, models project annual average temperature increases of 2.8°F (2021-2050), 4.5°F (2041-2070), and 7.7°F (2071-2099) (A2). We find that maximum temperatures above the user-defined threshold of 100°F will increase by an average of ~42 days per year; this is likely to affect public health (through increased heat stress) as well as increase water and electricity demand. For the winter season, models project a decrease of ~4 days with temperatures below freezing. Annual regional precipitation is projected to decrease in the last half of the century, and spring precipitation is projected to decrease in all time periods, regardless of emissions scenario. Days with zero precipitation increase by ~6 days/year, which has implications for water use and for fire danger in the forested area to the north of the city. Stakeholders defined two extreme high precipitation thresholds: precipitation greater than 0.5 inches per day, and precipitation greater than 1.0 inches per day. High precipitation is of particular concern to floodplain managers, given several instances of widespread flooding during the last 30 years. Both dynamically and statistically downscaled projections show slight increases in extreme high precipitation amounts, but increases were not outside of the average of the historic range. Using stakeholder input to tailor the classification of extreme events, makes those results more meaningful to city and county departments and municipal operational agencies. User-defined thresholds allow climate adaptation planners to more easily communicate climate change projections to city managers, local decision makers, and concerned citizens. Building off critical thresholds that are already known to represent potential climate- and weather-related vulnerabilities in the community, should make it easier for participants in scenario planning to visualize future threats and to articulate adaptation strategies and the feasibility of implementing strategies.
• Garfin, G. M., Cross, M., McCarthy, P., Gori, D., Enquist, C., Neely, B., DeGiorgio, J., Smith, E., & Bradley, A. (2013, April). Confronting Uncertainty in Planning for Adaptation to a Changing Climate. 11th Annual NOAA Climate Prediction and Application Science Workshop. Logan, UT.
  More info

  We specifically examine the nexus of adaptation planning, uncertainty, and the roles of scientists and resource managers, respectively, in partnerships aimed at conceiving and implementing climate change adaptation plans. In general, we find that starting constructive discussions requires (a) information on the basics of regional climate variability and global climate change, (b) region-specific projections of climate changes and their impacts, (c) frank discussion of an array of uncertainties, that include those due to modeling, SRES estimates, institutional, policy and economic factors, and (d) opportunities for candid exploration of these topics with peers and subject experts. Discussion support, a concept borrowed from Australian colleagues, describes a multi-faceted and undervalued aspect of moving forward in adaptation planning: clarifying plausible cascades of interactions leading to potential impacts. Discussion support also fosters discussion of how others confronting similar issues have both adapted well-known management strategies and developed outside-the-box ideas to move beyond “uncertainty paralysis.” Some preliminary conclusions from our work include the following: (a) climate change projections and research alone are not enough to motivate change, because the peer-reviewed literature requires interpretation and managers lack the time to keep up with the sheer volume of publications; (b) iterative and ongoing engagements are necessary to build trust and bolster science credibility; (c) uncertainty, formerly a topic to avoided, forms the foundation for constructive progress in adaptation planning, and (d) realistic visualization of potential future climates and environments is needed to stimulate further thinking on adaptation strategies. For scientists, gaining insight into how decisions are made is the most important part of scientist-stakeholder interactions. For managers, the most important factors are holistic, cross-sectoral, examination of both climate and non-climate factors, affecting resources, and addressing both uncertainties and the diversity of public values regarding resource management.
• Garfin, G. M., Quijada-Mascarenas, A., Wilder, M. O., & Varady, R. G. (2013, January). Transborder Climate and Experiments in Climate Communication: Building a Foundation for Adaptation. 93rd American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting. Austin, TX.
  More info

  In recent years, U.S.-Mexico border region stakeholders have consistently articulated needs for climate services to provide information, enhance preparedness, and better inform resource management decisions. We report on a NOAA-funded initiative in the U.S.-Mexico border region to not only provide information, but to build capacity for adaptation. The initiative augments the Border Climate Summary/Resumen del Clima de la Frontera PDF newsletter, through experiments in climate communication. We focus on Transborder Climate, a brief bulletin that gives a high-level overview of climate forecasts and research. We also report on experiments in the use of bilingual webinars and social media to increase knowledge exchange and build a foundation for adaptation to climate change. These experiments are being conducted by a consortium of collaborators from University of Arizona, UNISON, CIBNOR, CICESE, and the Desert Landscape Conservation Cooperative. We report on the early stages of these experiments and the methods and metrics for evaluating the use of these media and their value to border region decision makers.
• Sagarin, R. D., Sagarin, R. D., Falk, D. A., Falk, D. A., Garfin, G. M., Garfin, G. M., Weiss, J., Weiss, J., McNeil, S., McNeil, S., Haworth, A., Haworth, A., Khosa, R., Khosa, R., Overpeck, J., & Overpeck, J. (2013, May). Climate Change Impacts to Department of Defense Installations. Briefing for Naval Base Coronado. Naval Base Coronado, Coronado, CA: Department of Defense.
• Cross, M., McCarthy, P., Garfin, G., Gori, D., & Enquist, C. (2012, May). Accelerating climate change adaptation for natural resources in southwestern United States. Adaptation Futures Conference. Tucson, AZ.
• Garfin, G. (2012). Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States: Key Findings. American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting, session on The National Climate Assessment: Draft Findings, Building Capacity, and Implementing a Sustained Process. San Francisco, CA.
• Garfin, G. (2012). Brief Overview of Arizona Climate. Planning for Local Government Climate Challenges: Connecting Research and Practice Workshop. Tempe, AZ.
• Garfin, G. (2012). Climate Change in the Gila River Watershed. Pinal County Cooperative Extension Brown Bag Seminar Series. Casa Grande, AZ.
• Garfin, G. (2012). Climate Variability and Change: Projections for the Southwest, the Colorado River Basin, and Tucson. Power to Prepare Tucson: WWF Earth Hour 2012. Tucson, AZ.
• Garfin, G. (2012). Climate, Tucson s Water Supply, and Management. Tucson Water Smart Program launch and Press Conference. Tucson, AZ.
• Garfin, G. (2012). Ode to a Dry River. Ground|Water book launch. Tucson, AZ.
• Garfin, G. (2012). Southwest Climate Change for Artists. Biosphere 2 Art Lab. Oracle, AZ.
• Garfin, G. (2012). Southwest Drought 2011-2012. NOAA MAPP Drought Task Force Meeting. Fort Collins, CO.
• Garfin, G. (2012). The National Climate Assessment: Briefing for MtnClim 2012. 2012 Mountain Climate Research Conference. Estes Park, CO.
• Garfin, G. (2012). What s New at the Institute of the Environment?. Tucson Audubon Society.
• Garfin, G. (2012, April). Climate Change and Watersheds: Challenges, Responses, and Planning. International Seminar on Watershed Management, USDA-Forest Service International Programs. Tucson, AZ.
• Garfin, G. (2012, January). Communication Strategy for the Southwest Climate Change Assessment Report. Climate Assessment for the Southwest Team Meeting. Tucson, AZ.
• Garfin, G. (2012, January). Southwest Climate Change Assessment Report Workshop A Contribution to the National Climate Assessment. Convening Lead Authors' Meeting. San Diego, CA.
• Garfin, G. (2012, January). Uncertainty, Confidence and Risk. Southwest Climate Assessment Report. Convening Lead Authors' Meeting. San Diego, CA.
• Garfin, G. (2012, May). Panel on Getting the Job Done: How Western U.S. Cities are Adapting to Climate Change. Adaptation Futures Conference. Tucson, AZ.
• Garfin, G. (2012, May). Spatial Resolution in Adaptation Planning: What Would the Impressionists Say?. Adaptation Futures Conference. Tucson, AZ.
• Garfin, G. M., & Gargin, G. (2012, August). Binational Collaboration in the Rio Grande-Rio Bravo Basin: Climate Services. North American Climate Services Partnership, Rio Grande-Rio Bravo Technical Scoping Workshop. El Paso, TX.
• Garfin, G. M., & Gargin, G. (2012, August). CLIMAS Climate Services: Drought. North American Climate Services Partnership, Rio Grande-Rio Bravo Technical Scoping Workshop. El Paso, TX.
• Garfin, G. M., & Gargin, G. (2012, July). The National Climate Assessment: Briefing for U.S. CLIVAR. 2012 U.S. CLIVAR Annual Summit. Newport Beach, CA.
• Garfin, G., & , A. (2012, May). Transborder Climate and experiments in climate communication: building a foundation for adaptation. Third Conference on Biodiversity and Management of the Madrean Archipelago. Tucson, AZ.
• Garfin, G., & Carrillo, C. (2012, January). Climate Variability and Change: Projections for the Southwest, the Colorado River Basin, and Tucson. City of Tucson Climate Change Committee Meeting. Tucson, AZ.
• Garfin, G., Crimmins, M., Ferguson, D., Meadow, A., & Guido, Z. (2012). Drought Communication: Southwest. NOAA Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop. Fort Collins, CO.
• Misztal, L., Garfin, G., & Hansen, L. (2012, May). Responding to Climate Change Impacts in the Sky Island region: From Planning to Action. Adaptation Futures Conference. Tucson, AZ.
• Reeder, S., Garfin, G., Ethen, L., & Carrillo, C. (2012, May). The City of Tucson Climate Adaptation Project: Using Stakeholder Defined Criteria to Shape Climate Data Products. Adaptation Futures Conference. Tucson, AZ.
• Varady, R., Garfin, G., & Scott, C. (2012, May). Antecedents of the AQUASEC Initiative. Adaptation Futures Conference. Tucson, AZ.
• Wilder, M., & Garfin, G. (2012, May). Perspectives from Ground Zero: Adapting to Climate Change in the Southwest. Adaptation Futures Conference. Tucson, AZ.
• Wilder, M., Garfin, G., Pineda-Pablos, N., Varady, R., Scott, C., & , M. (2012, March). Building Adaptive Capacity for Water Management in the U.S.-Mexico Border Region: Scientist Stakeholder Collaboration to Achieve Socioecological Resilience. London, England.
• Garfin, G. M. (2011). Annual RISA Strategy Retreat. NOAA RISA Strategy Retreat. Boulder, CO.
• Garfin, G. M. (2011). Assessment of Climate Impacts to Surface Water Resources for Central Arizona. NOAA RISA Program-NSF Decision Making Under Uncertainty Program Brainstorming Event. Tempe, AZ.
• Garfin, G. M. (2011). Bridging the Gap: Supporting Decisions Through Discussion and. 21st Annual El Dia del Agua. Tucson, AZ.
• Garfin, G. M. (2011). Climate change adaptation capacity needs in the Southwest. Southwest Climate Change Initiative Meeting. Santa Fe, NM.
• Garfin, G. M. (2011). Climate, Water, Ecosystems, Uncertainty and Decision Making in the Southwest US. workshop on Climate, Risk and Water Security in the Americas. Cabos San Lucas, Baja California, Mexico.
• Garfin, G. M. (2011). Developing Innovations in Communicating Climate Science. Project Launch Workshop and Team Meeting, "Managing Demand and Rethinking Supply: Adaptation, Conservation, and Planning in the Drought-prone Southwestern United States and Northwest Mexico", NOAA Climate-Societal Interactions (CSI) Project. Tucson, AZ: NOAA.
• Garfin, G. M. (2011). Drought Ready Communities: Arizona and U.S. Drought Monitoring and Decision Support. Drought Ready Communities workshop series. Kingman, AZ.
• Garfin, G. M. (2011). Drought Ready Communities: Arizona and U.S. Drought Monitoring and Decision Support. Drought Ready Communities workshop series. Phoeniz, AZ.
• Garfin, G. M. (2011). Drought Ready Communities: Arizona and U.S. Drought Monitoring and Decision Support. Drought Ready Communities workshop series. Tucson, AZ.
• Garfin, G. M. (2011). Ecosystem Services. workshop on Climate, Risk and Water Security in the Americas. Cabos San Lucas, Baja California, Mexico.
• Garfin, G. M. (2011). Hands across the water: an integrative approach to uncertainty and decision-making. 91st American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting. Seattle, WA: American Meteorological Society.
• Garfin, G. M. (2011). Impacts of Climate Change in the Southwestern US. New Mexico Green Chamber of Commerce meeting. Santa Fe, NM: Clean Air-Cool Planet, Avalon Trust, and Ambassador of Norway to the United States, His Excellency Wegger Chr. Strommen.
• Garfin, G. M. (2011). Jemez Mountains, NM Adaptation Case Study. Jemez Mountains, NM Adaptation Case Study at Between a Rock and a Hot Place, Climate Change Adaptation and Resource Management for the Sky Island Region. Tucson, AZ.
• Garfin, G. M. (2011). Mexico Climate Outlook. National/North American Seasonal Assessment Workshop.
  More info

  three-day teleconference
• Garfin, G. M. (2011). Progress and Pitfalls in Presenting Climate Change Model Information to Resource Managers and the Public. National Research Council Panel for developing a National Strategy for Advancing Climate Modeling. Seattle, WA.
• Garfin, G. M. (2011). Regional Climate Change Projections for Southern Arizona and the Colorado River Basin. Climate Change and the City of Tucson s Greater Southlands Habitat Conservation Plan: Climate Projections and Habitat Workshop. Tucson, AZ.
• Garfin, G. M. (2011). UA Water Resources Research Center, Rainwater Harvesting Roundtable. Rainwater Harvesting Roundtable. Tucson, AZ.
• Garfin, G. M. (2011, April). Climate Change Adaptation in the Arid Southwest: Workshop for Land and Resource Management. Between a Rock and a Hot Place: Climate Change Adaptation and Resource Managment for the Sky Island Region. Tucson, AZ: Sky Island Alliance, Ecoadapt, U.S. Institute for Environmental Conflict Resolution, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, CLIMAS.
• Garfin, G. M. (2011, December). Town Hall Meeting on Southwest Climate Change Assessment Report. 2011 AGU Fall Meeting. San Francisco, CA: 2011 AGU Fall Meeting.
• Garfin, G. M. (2011, February). National Integrated Drought Information System Upper Colorado River Basin Workshop. National Integrated Drought Information System Upper Colorado River Basin Workshop. Boulder, CO.
• Garfin, G. M. (2011, January). A New Generation Honors George Wright s Legacy: Climate Change Fellows and Interns in the National Parks. George Wright Society Conference on Parks, Protected Areas and Cultural Sites. New Orleans, LA: National Park Service, National Council for Science and the Environment.
• Garfin, G. M. (2011, January). Climate, Forests & Woodlands eXtension Community of Practice. Climate, Forests & Woodlands eXtension Community of Practice workshop. Phoenix, AZ.
• Garfin, G. M. (2011, January). Drought adaptation in multi-jurisdictional river basins. American Meteorological Society, Session on Drought Management, Policy and Social Implications. Seattle, WA: AMS 91st Annual Meeting.
  More info

  Internet/intranet
• Garfin, G. M. (2011, June). Climate Variations for Yuma County, AZ and the Southwest. A Drop in the Bucket: Making the Connection Between Solar Energy and Water Use in Arizon. Lake Havasu City, AZ.
• Garfin, G. M. (2011, June). Climate Variations for Yuma County, AZ and the Southwest. A Drop in the Bucket: Making the Connection Between Solar Energy and Water Use in Arizon. Yuma. AZ.
• Garfin, G. M. (2011, March). Border Climate Summary. National Weather Service Virtual Border Workshop.
• Garfin, G. M. (2011, October). Climate variability and change in Mohave County, AZ. Research Hits the Road -- "Residential Rainwater Harvesting". Kingman, AZ.

Poster Presentations

• Garfin, G. M., Shafer, M. A., & Brown, D. P. (2013, Fall). Cooperation on Climate Services in the Binational Rio Grande/Bravo Basin. American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2013. San Francisco, CA: American Geophysical Union.
  More info

  Climate Literacy: Beyond Climate Literacy -- Toward Effective Responses to Global Change III PostersAbstractThe Rio Grande/Bravo River Basin (RGB) of the United States and México is exposed to tornadoes, severe storms, hurricanes, winter storms, wildfire, and drought. The combination of these weather and climate-related hazards has resulted in impacts, such as wildfire, crop loss, water supply reduction, and flooding, with exceedingly high economic costs ($13 billion in 2011). In order to contribute to increased binational information flow and knowledge exchange in the region, we have developed a prototype quarterly bilingual RGB Climate Outlook, in PDF, supplemented by Twitter messages and Facebook posts. The goal of the project is to improve coordination between institutions in the U.S. and Mexico, increase awareness about climate variations, their impacts and costs to society, and build capacity for enhanced hazard preparedness. The RGB Outlook features a synthesis of climate products, impact data and analysis, is expressed in user-friendly language, and relies substantially on visual communication in contrast to text. The RGB Outlook is co-produced with colleagues in the U.S. and Mexico, in conjunction with the North American Climate Services Partnership (NACSP) and NOAA's regional climate services program. NACSP is a tri-national initiative to develop and deliver drought-based climate services in order to assist water resource managers, agricultural interests, and other constituents as they prepare for future drought events and build capacity to respond to other climate extremes. The RGB Climate Outlook builds on lessons learned from the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS) Southwest Climate Outlook (PDF, html), La Niña Drought Tracker (PDF, html), the Southern Climate Impacts Policy Program (SCIPP) Managing Drought in the Southern Plains webinar series, the Border Climate Summary (PDF), and Transborder Climate newsletter (PDF) and webinar series. The latter two have been the only regularly occurring bilingual climate information products in the U.S.-Mexico border region. Prior research shows that these products: contribute to increased understanding of climate phenomena, information, and forecasts, are shared with partners in social networks, and inform decisions. The project team has initiated a pre-dissemination product survey, in order to probe the primary audience of resource managers, hazard planners, and agricultural water users about their needs for information, format, and communication preferences. We will report on the survey results, as well as challenges in binational communication and cooperation.
• Ellis, A., Garfin, G., & Lenart, M. (2011, January). Application of the moisture balance drought index in the Colorado River Basin, USA. 91st American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting. Seattle, WA: American Meteorological Society.
• Garfin, G. M., Scott, C., Wilder, M., Varady, R., Pineda, N., McEvoy, J., Diaz-Caravantes, R., & Browning-Aiken, A. (2011, October). Building Capacity for Adaptation to Climate Change in Arid North America at the Nexus Between Water, Energy and Environment. World Climate Research Programme Open Science Meeting. Denver, CO.

Case Studies

• Haverland, A. C., Haverland, A. C., Garfin, G. M., & Garfin, G. M. (2019. Toward Effective Actionable Science: Stakeholder Needs Assessment Final Report(pp 47 (plus appendices)).
  More info

  In 2018, to help fulfill the Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center’s (SW CASC) mission of developing useful science products for natural resource managers, researchers conducted a rapid assessment of science and information needs of Southwest natural resource managers in Arizona, California, Nevada and Utah. Researchers assessed (a) stakeholder research, data and information needs, (b) communication and engagement preferences, (c) training and extension needs, and (d) identified partnership and collaboration barriers and opportunities.The researchers gathered data through 6 structured listening sessions, 24 interviews, and 88 web-based survey responses. Project outputs include an updated resource manager contact database, catalog of state natural resource agency management plans, and a synthesis of management science needs and priorities. The researchers developed a repeatable, robust process for rapidly assessing stakeholder needs.Four overarching research themes emerged, pertaining to the influence of climate on: the combination of snow, water resources, drought and their effects on habitat; stand-replacing fires; rapid and overwhelming introductions of invasive species; wildlife diseases. Regional stakeholders seek relevant climate science synthesis and assessments, examples of successful adaptation strategies, synthesis of multiple data streams, and guidance on implementing climate-informed strategies. Barriers include lack of research fit with resource management temporal and spatial scales, and lack of stakeholder capacity to assimilate climate science into practice.The assessment recommends that the SW CASC focus on the emerging science themes, with attention to data, science communication, synthesis and assessment product needs, and the complex intersection of climate and non-climate factors and resource management. The SW CASC can play a significant role in convening practitioners and researchers to assess climate impacts on habitat, connectivity, and species. Outcomes from this assessment include improved communication with state natural resource agencies; increased understanding of the SW CASC stakeholder science needs; enhanced capacity for the SW CASC to conduct needs assessments, and relationships to seed a knowledge network. DOI:10.13140/RG.2.2.22010.64966

Others

• Baglee, A., Haworth, A., O'Connor, C., Overpeck, J., Weiss, J. L., Jacobs, K. L., Falk, D. A., Haverland, A. C., & Garfin, G. M. (2017, August). SERDP Project RC2232 User Guide. April 2017. Best Practices for Assessing Climate Related Risk and Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons Learned from DoD Installations in the Southwestern United States.. Strategic Environment and Research Development Program, SERDP.
  More info

  This user guide summarizes findings from SERDP project RC-2232: Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation on Southwestern DoD Facilities and is offered as a collection of resources that DoD managers can use to plan and implement ongoing adaptation activities. Our research focused on assessment of climate related risk and the need for iterative climate change adaptation strategies that are aligned with DoD facilities management. Our overall guidance for climate decision-making is consistent with our original hypothesis—that best practices require direct engagement of installation personnel with researchers to identify current climate-related issues of concern, and connect them through cause-and-effect impact chains to amplified or attenuated future climate-related risks. We have identified an array of promising approaches for incorporating climate time-scale thinking and climate change considerations into DoD operational practices and provide an overview of techniques used to assess risk, a series of best practices, and a compilation of resources to support DoD climate-sensitive decision-making in this guidance document.
• Garfin, G. M., Falk, D. A., Jacobs, K. L., Weiss, J. L., Haverland, A. C., Baglee, A., Christopher, O., Brian, S., & Forrest, T. (2016, June). Selection of Climate Data, Global Climate Models, and Climate Projections. Prepared by the SERDP Project RC-2232 Team for the Strategic Environment Research and Development Program (SERDP).
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  This paper, requested by Dr. John Hall, describes the choice of climate data, climate models, and vegetation, fire and hydrology process models used in SERDP Project RC-2232. The data and models were used (a) to inform the project team’s initial assessments of climate variability and change affecting the region, (b) to communicate historic and projected climate changes to personnel at installations in the southwestern United States, during climate adaptation planning workshops, and (c) as the basis for climate impact modeling studies focused on addressing specific concerns identified during the workshops. Data sources were selected, based on the following criteria: (a) authoritativeness, (b) ease of access, (c) fit with impact applications. Global climate models (GCMs) were selected on the basis of fidelity to the statistical characteristics of historical climatology, (b) availability and accessibility of climate projection data.
• Garfin, G. M., Haverland, A. C., Falk, D. A., Jacobs, K. L., Weiss, J. L., Overpeck, J., O'Connor, C., Haworth, A., & Baglee, A. (2017, August). ERDP Project RC2232 User Guide. April 2017. Best Practices for Assessing Climate Related Risk and Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons Learned from DoD Installations in the Southwestern United States.. Strategic Environment and Research Development Program, SERDP.
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  This user guide summarizes findings from SERDP project RC-2232: Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation on Southwestern DoD Facilities and is offered as a collection of resources that DoD managers can use to plan and implement ongoing adaptation activities. Our research focused on assessment of climate related risk and the need for iterative climate change adaptation strategies that are aligned with DoD facilities management. Our overall guidance for climate decision-making is consistent with our original hypothesis—that best practices require direct engagement of installation personnel with researchers to identify current climate-related issues of concern, and connect them through cause-and-effect impact chains to amplified or attenuated future climate-related risks. We have identified an array of promising approaches for incorporating climate time-scale thinking and climate change considerations into DoD operational practices and provide an overview of techniques used to assess risk, a series of best practices, and a compilation of resources to support DoD climate-sensitive decision-making in this guidance document.
• Brown, P. W., Garfin, G. M., Crimmins, M. A., & Weiss, J. L. (2018, December). El Niño 2018-2019? An Overview of What It Might Mean for Arizona. University of Arizona Cooperative Extension Climate Fact Sheet.
• Garfin, G. M., DuBois, D., Crimmins, M. A., & Weiss, J. L. (2018, December). El Niño 2018-2019? An Overview of What It Might Mean for New Mexico. CLIMAS Climate Fact Sheet.
• Jacobs, K. L., Garfin, G. M., & Buizer, J. l. (2018, September). Pima County Climate Brief.. Pima County Sustainability Program.. https://webcms.pima.gov/UserFiles/Servers/Server_6/File/Government/Administration/CHHmemosFor%20Web/2018/October/Resolution%20In%20Support%20of%20the%202018%20Sustainable%20Action%20Plan%20for%20County%20Operations.pdf
• Garfin, G. M., & LeRoy, S. (2017, September). NIHHIS Rio Grande-Rio Bravo 2017 Summer Meeting: Evaluation, Knowledge Sharing, and Next Steps Summary.. CLIMAS, Institute of the Environment. http://www.climas.arizona.edu/publication/report/nihhis-rio-grande-rio-bravo-2017-summer-meeting-evaluation-knowledge-sharing-and
• Garfin, G. M., LeRoy, S., & Jones, H. (2017, January). Developing an Integrated Heat Health Information System for Long-Term Resilience to Climate and Weather Extremes in the El Paso-Juárez-Las Cruces Region.. CLIMAS, Institute of the Environment. http://doi.org/10.7289/V5930R6Q
• Garfin, G. M., LeRoy, S., & Jones, H. (2017, July). Developing an Integrated Heat Health Information System for Long-Term Resilience to Climate and Weather Extremes in the El Paso-Juárez-Las Cruces Region. Final technical report to UCAR and NOAA.. UCAR.
• LeRoy, S., & Garfin, G. M. (2017, April). The Climate of Las Cruces, New Mexico. Produced in conjunction with the project, Using Critical Thresholds to Customize Climate Projections of Extreme Events to User Needs and Support Decisions.. CLIMAS, Institute of the Environment.
• LeRoy, S., Garfin, G. M., & Jones, H. (2017, February). NIHHIS Southwest Regional Pilot: 2017 Winter Work Streams Meeting Summary.. CLIMAS, Institute of the Environment. http://www.climas.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/pdfnihhis-2017-winter-meeting-summary.pdf
• O'Connor, C. D., Weiss, J. L., Haverland, A., Jacobs, K., Falk, D. A., & Garfin, G. M. (2017, Spring). Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation on Southwestern DoD Facilities. Final Report of Project RC-2232 to the US Department of Defense Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP). US Department of Defense Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP).
• Petersen, A., Garfin, G. M., Karen, M., Allen, C., Shafer, M., Hayhoe, K., Kos, L., LeRoy, S., Nasser, E., Riley, R., & Stults, M. (2017, July). Critical Thresholds, Extreme Weather, and Building Resilience: How using Critical Thresholds to Customize Climate Projections of Extreme Events to User Needs Can Support Decisions and Build Resilience. A Sectoral Applications Research Program Project supported by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Program Office.. Adaptation International. https://tinyurl.com/ydfuraam
• Garfin, G. M., Falk, D. A., Jacobs, K. L., Haverland, A. C., & Christopher, O. (2016, June). Response to 2016 In-Progress Review: Connecting Short-and-Long-Term Decisions for Climate and Fire Impacts. SERDP Project RC-2232 for the Strategic Environment Research and Development Program (SERDP).
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  This white paper addresses the aforementioned requests, by explaining the methodologies used by the RC-2232 team, and by giving examples from our interactions with Department of Defense installations in the southwestern United States. From the team’s perspective, the issues raised in points (a) and (b), above, are related. Consequently, there is some redundancy in our responses. Also, for further details about the science and interactions described in our case studies, we have attached three reports related to our work on connecting near-term and long-term management decisions, through research on climate-fire connections related to the installations (O’Connor et al. 2015; 2016a; 2016b).
• Garfin, G. M., Leroy, S., Martin, D., Hammersley, M., Quay, R., Youberg, A., Roh, B., Oropeza, J., Summerfelt, P., Scissons, S., & Sham, C. (2016, January). Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Extreme Precipitation, and Post-Fire Flooding. Report to U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, on a workshop held September 22-23, 2014, in Las Vegas, NV.. Bureau of Reclamation.
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  On September 22-23, 2014, twenty-three scientists, resource managers, and urban planners convened in Las Vegas, Nevada, to discuss research and management needs related to severe fires and post-fire flooding in the Intermountain West. The workshop was motivated by the concerns of water management agencies about the potential for a changing climate to exacerbate fire impacts, through projected increases in acres burned and potential changes in the intensity of future extreme precipitation, and the frequency of extreme events—which the National Climate Assessment projects to at least double across the region. The workshop was convened by the University of Arizona, with funding provided by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.The main purpose of this workshop was to further the understanding of the scientific and management decision-making research needs and gaps at the confluence of wildfire, post-fire floods, and extreme precipitation. Participants accomplished this by sharing lessons learned and best practices from case studies, through group discussions identifying research and management needs, and through the suggestions of participants to inform the development of a toolbox of processes and products to inform water and floodplain managers. Research, data, and management needs identified by workshop participants focused on the topics of extreme precipitation, fire ecology, flooding and sediment transport, water supply and reservoir infrastructure, and water quality. Key needs in each area are described briefly below, and in further depth later in the body of this report.
• Garfin, G. M., Leroy, S., Martin, D., Hammersley, M., Youberg, A., & Quay, R. (2016, September). Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Extreme Precipitation, and Post-Fire Flooding. Report to U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, on a workshop held September 22-23, 2014, in Las Vegas, NV.. University of Arizona, Institute of the Environment. http://DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.12750.05448
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  On September 22-23, 2014, twenty-three scientists, resource managers, and urban planners convened in Las Vegas, Nevada, to discuss research and management needs related to severe fires and post-fire flooding in the Intermountain West. The workshop was motivated by the concerns of water management agencies about the potential for a changing climate to exacerbate fire impacts, through projected increases in acres burned and potential changes in the intensity of future extreme precipitation, and the frequency of extreme events—which the National Climate Assessment projects to at least double across the region. The workshop was convened by the University of Arizona, with funding provided by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.The main purpose of this workshop was to further the understanding of the scientific and management decision-making research needs and gaps at the confluence of wildfire, post-fire floods, and extreme precipitation. Participants accomplished this by sharing lessons learned and best practices from case studies, through group discussions identifying research and management needs, and through the suggestions of participants to inform the development of a toolbox of processes and products to inform water and floodplain managers. Research, data, and management needs identified by workshop participants focused on the topics of extreme precipitation, fire ecology, flooding and sediment transport, water supply and reservoir infrastructure, and water quality. Key needs in each area are described briefly below, and in further depth later in the body of this report.
• Garfin, G. M., Leroy, S., McMahan, B., Black, M., & Roh, B. (2016, January). Preparing for High Consequence, Low Probability Events: Heat, Water & Energy in the Southwest. Report to U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, on a workshop held September 28-29, 2015, in Tucson, AZ..
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  Projections of longer, more severe heat waves and droughts, and decreasing surface water reliability in the Southwest U.S. increase the risk of constrained water resources, along with episodes of extreme summer heat, which can disrupt energy production and transmission, leading to impact cascades affecting millions of people in Southwest cities. These impacts have ramifications for public health and safety, transportation, and food supply. While much effort has focused on exploring the risks of projected climate change on individual economic and resource management sectors, there has been relatively little emphasis on examining the interactions of multi-sector vulnerabilities, and emergency management at the intersections of extreme heat, water, and energy. To identify risks, vulnerabilities, and knowledge gaps, and prioritize research and management needs, the workshop, Preparing for High Consequence, Low Probability Events: Heat, Water & Energy in the Southwest, was held at the University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ), September 28-29, 2015. Participants included regional researchers and resource managers with expertise in water, energy, climate, natural hazards, and emergency management. This report outlines challenges and provides background on the topic, as well as analysis of case studies and conceptual diagrams created prior to and during the workshop. In addition, we discuss major themes that emerged during the workshop, and key research, management, and policy needs identified by participants.
• Garfin, G. M., Leroy, S., McMahan, B., Black, M., & Roh, B. (2016, June). Preparing for High Consequence, Low Probability Events: Heat, Water & Energy in the Southwest. Report to U.S. Bureau of Reclamation, on a workshop held September 28-29, 2015, in Tucson, AZ.. University of Arizona, Institute of the Environment. http://DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.4823.3205
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  Projections of longer, more severe heat waves and droughts, and decreasing surface water reliability in the Southwest U.S. increase the risk of constrained water resources, along with episodes of extreme summer heat, which can disrupt energy production and transmission, leading to impact cascades affecting millions of people in Southwest cities. These impacts have ramifications for public health and safety, transportation, and food supply. While much effort has focused on exploring the risks of projected climate change on individual economic and resource management sectors, there has been relatively little emphasis on examining the interactions of multi-sector vulnerabilities, and emergency management at the intersections of extreme heat, water, and energy. To identify risks, vulnerabilities, and knowledge gaps, and prioritize research and management needs, the workshop, Preparing for High Consequence, Low Probability Events: Heat, Water & Energy in the Southwest, was held at the University of Arizona (Tucson, AZ), September 28-29, 2015. Participants included regional researchers and resource managers with expertise in water, energy, climate, natural hazards, and emergency management. This report outlines challenges and provides background on the topic, as well as analysis of case studies and conceptual diagrams created prior to and during the workshop. In addition, we discuss major themes that emerged during the workshop, and key research, management, and policy needs identified by participants.
• Weiss, J. L., Crimmins, M. A., Garfin, G. M., & Brown, P. A. (2016, March). El Niño 2015-2016 : Will It Affect Snowfall in Arizona’s Highcountry?. University of Arizona Cooperative Extension Climate Fact Sheet.
• Weiss, J. L., Crimmins, M. A., Garfin, G. M., & Brown, P. A. (2016, May). El Niño 2015-2016 : Will It Affect the Wildland Fire Season in Arizona?. University of Arizona Cooperative Extension Climate Fact Sheet.
• Weiss, J. L., Crimmins, M. A., Garfin, G. M., & Brown, P. W. (2016, March). El Nino 2015-2016: Will It Affect Snow in Arizona's Highcountry.
• Brown, P. W., Garfin, G. M., Crimmins, M. A., Weiss, J. L., Brown, P. W., Garfin, G. M., Crimmins, M. A., & Weiss, J. L. (2015, September). El Nino 2015-2016: An Overview of What It Might Mean for Arizona.
• Brown, P. W., Garfin, G. M., Crimmins, M. A., Weiss, J. L., Brown, P. W., Garfin, G. M., Crimmins, M. A., Weiss, J. L., Brown, P. W., Garfin, G. M., Crimmins, M. A., & Weiss, J. L. (2015, October). El Nino 2015-2016: Will It Influence Tropical Cyclones that Affect Arizona.
• Liverman, D. M., Garfin, G. M., Doster, S., Bao, K., Gladstone, F., Krosnick, J. A., MacInnis, B., & Overpeck, J. T. (2015, May). Arizona's Views on Climate Change. A report (and web page). Institute of the Environment. http://www.environment.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/climate-survey/ExecutiveSummary.pdf
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  Summary written and published in 2015, along with survey results. A research team from the University of Arizona and Stanford University conducted a survey in November and December 2014 of 803 adult Arizona residents to better understand their concerns and tailor UA climate change research to address their needs. The questions were asked in English or Spanish. The results provide valuable insight into Arizonans’ views on climate change and how those views vary depending on age, gender, ethnicity, and political affiliation. Overall, Arizonans are interested and engaged in the issue of climate change, and their views on global warming are generally in step with the rest of the nation. Survey results -- http://www.environment.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/climate-survey/AZTOPLINE_May_Final.pdf and http://www.environment.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/climate-survey/AZGlobalWarming_WithinAZDifferences_6May2015.pdf
• Liverman, D. M., Garfin, G. M., Doster, S., Bao, K., Gladstone, F., Krosnick, J. A., MacInnis, B., & Overpeck, J. T. (2015, May). Arizona's Views on Climate Change. Executive Summary.. Institute of the Environment. http://www.environment.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/climate-survey/ExecutiveSummary.pdf
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  Summary written and published in 2015, along with survey results. A research team from the University of Arizona and Stanford University conducted a survey in November and December 2014 of 803 adult Arizona residents to better understand their concerns and tailor UA climate change research to address their needs. The questions were asked in English or Spanish. The results provide valuable insight into Arizonans’ views on climate change and how those views vary depending on age, gender, ethnicity, and political affiliation. Overall, Arizonans are interested and engaged in the issue of climate change, and their views on global warming are generally in step with the rest of the nation. Survey results -- http://www.environment.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/climate-survey/AZTOPLINE_May_Final.pdf and http://www.environment.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/climate-survey/AZGlobalWarming_WithinAZDifferences_6May2015.pdf
• Wall, T., Garfin, G. M., Brugger, J., Hartmann, H., & Brown, T. (2015, November). Scenario Planning in the Great Basin Region: Considering Climate Change Impacts and Management Strategies for the Future.. Desert Research Institute. http://www.dri.edu/planning-for-the-future/scenario-planning/final-report
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  For federal, state, tribal and private land managers in Nevada, considering climate change in their resource management plansis both a challenging and pressing concern. It is challenging because of the inherent uncertainty surrounding the effects ofclimate change on hydrological, ecological, and climatological systems in the Great Basin. The Great Basin Region, whichcovers much of Nevada, and portions of California, Oregon, Idaho, and Utah, managers are already confronting a changingclimate and are beginning to make management decisions despite uncertainty in how climate change effects will manifest inthe region. To support decision making, the Great Basin Landscape Conservation Cooperative (LCC) and the National Oceanic andAtmospheric Administration (NOAA) Regional Integrated Science Assessment Program (RISA) funded this project to explore how twoscenario planning approaches might be used effectively with existing management planning processes and data sources and how tobegin prioritizing adaptation strategies. The two approaches used in this project are Adaptation for Conservation Targets (ACT) andStrategic Scenario Planning (SSP). This report provides an overview of the project webinars and two workshops, our analysis of thestrengths and limitations of the scenario planning approaches used, and suggestions for using these methods to prioritize adaptationactions.
• Weiss, J. L., Crimmins, M. A., Garfin, G. M., & Brown, P. A. (2015, October). El Niño 2015-2016 : Will It Influence Tropical Cyclones that Affect Arizona?. University of Arizona Cooperative Extension Climate Fact Sheet.
• Weiss, J. L., Crimmins, M. A., Garfin, G. M., & Brown, P. A. (2015, September). El Niño 2015-2016 : An Overview of What It Might Mean for Arizona. University of Arizona Cooperative Extension Climate Fact Sheet.
• Weiss, J. L., Crimmins, M. A., Garfin, G. M., & Brown, P. W. (2015, December). El Nino 2015-2016: Will It Affect Minimum Temperatures Across Arizona.
• Weiss, J. L., Weiss, J. L., Crimmins, M. A., Crimmins, M. A., Garfin, G. M., Garfin, G. M., Brown, P. A., & Brown, P. A. (2015, December). El Niño 2015-2016 : Will It Affect Minimum Temperatures across Arizona?. University of Arizona Cooperative Extension Climate Fact Sheet.
• Garfin, G. M. (2014, December). Opportunities for Transforming US CLIVAR Basic Research to Actionable Science for Managing Climate Risk. CLIVAR Variations. http://usclivar.org/sites/default/files/documents/2014/Variations2014Fall.pdf
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  Garfin, G. 2014. Opportunities for Transforming US CLIVAR Basic Research to Actionable Science for Managing Climate Risk. CLIVAR Variations 12(4): 13-16. http://usclivar.org/sites/default/files/documents/2014/Variations2014Fall.pdf
• Garfin, G. M. (2014, January). The National Climate Assessment and Preparing for Changes in the U.S.-Mexico Border Region. Southern Climate Monitor. http://www.southernclimate.org/publications/monitor/SCM_January_2014.pdf
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  Garfin, G. 2014. The National Climate Assessment and Preparing for Changes in the U.S.-Mexico Border Region. Southern Climate Monitor 4(1): 2-7. http://www.southernclimate.org/publications/monitor/SCM_January_2014.pdf
• Garfin, G. M. (2014, July). Notes from the Field: Thinking Outside the Box with Great Basin Natural Resource Managers. CLIMAS Website. http://climas.arizona.edu/blog/notes-field-thinking-outside-box-with-resource-managers
• Garfin, G. M. (2014, June). Arizona Facing High Fire Danger a Year After Yarnell. CLIMAS Website. http://climas.arizona.edu/blog/arizona-facing-high-fire-danger-year-after-yarnell
• Garfin, G. M. (2014, May). Chapter 20: Southwest. National Climate Assessment. http://www.globalchange.gov/explore/southwest
• Garfin, G. M. (2014, October). Fire and Flooding in the Intermountain West. Association of Natural Resources Extension Professionals (ANREP) Newsletter.
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  Garfin, G. 2014. Fire and Flooding in the Intermountain West. Association of Natural Resources Extension Professionals (ANREP) Newsletter, Fall 2014.
• Garfin, G. M. (2014, September). Notes from the Field: Preparing for Climate Change Along the US-Mexico Border. CLIMAS Website. http://climas.arizona.edu/blog/notes-field-preparing-climate-change-along-us-mexico-border
• Garfin, G. M., Ferguson, D. B., Jacobs, K. L., & Breshears, D. D. (2014, May). Ask Me Anything. The NEW REDDIT JOURNAL of SCIENCE. http://www.reddit.com/r/science/comments/254diy/science_ama_series_we_helped_create_the_third/
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  Online, real-time, question and answer chat session about the National Climate Assessment
• Falk, D. A., & Garfin, G. M. (2013, September). There's no doubt: Earth is warming, and it's our fault. Arizona Daily Star.
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  D.A. Falk and G. M. Garfin. 2013. Guest Column: There's no doubt: Earth is warming, and it's our fault. Arizona Daily Star, September 29, 2013.
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, July). What's New at the Institute of the Environment?. Vermillion Flycatcher (The Quarterly News Magazine of Tucson Audubon Society). http://www.tucsonaudubon.org/images/stories/vflycatcher/VF_JAS13.pdf
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  G. Garfin. 2013. What's New at the Institute of the Environment? Vermillion Flycatcher (The Quarterly News Magazine of Tucson Audubon Society), 58(3):17. July/August/September
• Garfin, G. M. (2013, May). How would an extra month of 100-plus degree days feel?. Arizona Daily Star. http://azstarnet.com/news/opinion/guest-column-how-would-an-extra-month-of--plus/article_54978a1f-dc1f-5ec6-afdd-6e8b3c790c26.html
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  G. Garfin. 2013. Guest Column: How would an extra month of 100-plus degree days feel? Arizona Daily Star, May 1, 2013. http://azstarnet.com/news/opinion/guest-column-how-would-an-extra-month-of--plus/article_54978a1f-dc1f-5ec6-afdd-6e8b3c790c26.htmlOp-ed for local newspaper
• Garfin, G. M., Hakanson, G., LeRoy, S., & Greene, C. (2013, May). Fact Sheets for Chapters 3-20 in Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States. Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States. http://swcarr.arizona.edu/
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  G. Garfin, G. Hakanson, S. LeRoy, C. Greene. 2013. Fact Sheets for Chapters 3-20 in Assessment of Climate Change in the Southwest United States. http://www.swcarr.arizona.edu/key-findingsEach chapter has a unique fact sheet. For an example, see http://swcarr.arizona.edu/sites/default/files/ACCSWUS_Ch3_Factsheet.pdf
• Garfin, G. (2011, Fall). Projections, prospects for climate change in southern Arizona. University of Arizona Cooperative Extension.
• Garfin, G. M. (2011, December). Interview on 2011 Arizona fire season. KVOA-TV.
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  Exact Date: 12/31/2011
• Garfin, G. M. (2011, December). Interview with Michael Chihak, on drought and climate change. KUAT-TV (Arizona Week). http://originals.azpm.org/azweek/story/2011/5/13/2030-episode-18-state-water-situation-still-serious/
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  Exact Date: 12/31/2011
• Garfin, G. M. (2011, December). Uncertain Future for Joshua Trees in US Southwest Projected With Climate Change. Science Daily.
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  Exact Date: 12/31/2011
• Garfin, G. M., & Aldous, P. (2011, December). Interview on climate change impacts in the Southwest. New Scientist.
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  Exact Date: 12/31/2011
• Garfin, G. M., & Bembenek, K. (2011, December). fire forecasts for Arizona. KVOA-TV.
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  Exact Date: 12/31/2011
• Garfin, G. M., & Carrion, L. (2011, December). Interview on 2011 Arizona Fire Season. Arizona Public Media.
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  Exact Date: 12/31/2011
• Garfin, G. M., & Davis, T. (2011, December). Rain not enough to end Tucson's extreme drought. Arizona Daily Star. http://azstarnet.com/article_af631873-ff74-5b2a-8f81-48df389c5d79.html#ixzz1jfe61P5v
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  Exact Date: 12/31/2011
• Garfin, G. M., & Davis, T. (2011, December). Tucson area faces 'perfect storm' for huge fire season. Arizona Daily Sta. http://azstarnet.com/news/local/wildfire/article_e02c6f80-8c8b-58cf-aa7b-f85bc91a8dd0.html#ixzz1jffKSScS
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  Exact Date: 12/31/2011
• Garfin, G. M., & Doster, S. (2011, December). Fire potential above normal for Southern Arizona. UANews. http://uanews.org/node/39554
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  Exact Date: 12/31/2011
• Garfin, G. M., & Doster, S. (2011, December). Have an Environment Question? Visit New UA Website. UANews. http://www.uanews.org/node/39970
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  Exact Date: 12/31/2011
• Garfin, G. M., & Hanson, J. (2011, December). Experts: Energy mandates won t drain Arizona s water supply. Today's News-Herald, Lake Havasu City.
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  Exact Date: 12/31/2011
• Garfin, G. M., & Knaub, M. (2011, December). UA researchers to talk about solar energy and water use. Yuma Sun. http://www.yumasun.com/news/energy-70610-water-solar.html
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  Exact Date: 12/31/2011
• Garfin, G. M., & McKosato, H. (2011, December). Interview on climate change and tribal lands. Native America Calling. www.nativeamericacalling.com
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  Exact Date: 12/31/2011
• Garfin, G. M., Bosworth, B., & Yulsman, T. (2011, December). Running on Empty: Part Two - on plight of the Colorado River. Climate Central. www.climatecentral.org
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  Exact Date: 12/31/2011
• Guido, Z., Crimmins, M., Garfin, G., Selover, N., Doster, S., & Macaulay, R. (2011, Fall). Southwest Climate Outlook. Arizona Cooperative Extension, Arizona State Climate Office. http://www.climas.arizona.edu/outlooks/swco
• Wilder, M., Scott, C., Pineda, P. N., Varady, R., & Garfin, G. (2011, Fall). Moving Forward from Vulnerability to Adaptation: Climate Change, Drought, and Water Demand in the Urbanizing Southwestern United States and Northern Mexico. Udall Center for Studies in Public Policy.